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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:46 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:17 PM 14/03/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Mike Abbey
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Colin Atkins
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Murray Downing
Lisa Gallagher
Green Party/Parti Vert:
David Kattenburg
Merv Tweed

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Brandon-Souris (93.3%)
Rick Borotsik
Portage-Lisgar (6.7%)
Brian Pallister

2000 Result/Résultats:
13,950 36.61%
12,480 32.75%
6,623 17.38%
4,617 12.12%
434 1.14%

(173/173 polls, 54545/54545 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(22/197 polls, 3891/55910 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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22/06/04 Jon Potter
Email: [hidden]
While the conservative party in the Brandon-Souris region is apparently at an advantage, one must wonder at the fallout of the decision of member Borotsik to not run again on a combined Conservative platform. At any rate it is the opinion of this individual and the group I conference with that we will all be voting Liberal to try to sink Conservative hopes at re-elction in this riding. We make this decision despite the fact that we are all decidedly unliberal. However at this point any non-conservative vote is, i argue, politically sound. Unless f course any one is of the opinion any other party has a chance of beating tham?
28/05/04 B. Stewart
Email: [hidden]
Well there will be losses of Red Tory votes to the Liberals in this riding (if people even show up at the voting booths June 28th). Unfortunately for Paul Martin, Canadian Alliance support was twice as high as that of the Liberals' was in this riding in 2000. Therefore, even if the Liberals win 50% of former PC votes, they would still lose by over 6,500 votes (the other 6,500 going to the CPC now). It will have to take 75% of former PC votes to shift Liberal for this riding to be won by Paul Martin. Considering the candidate the Tories now have, I doubt that can happen.
25/05/04 J.E
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals might have had a chance with this riiding if they had nominated a quality candidate, but Murray Downing has no profile in the riding and less than impressive background. Merve Tweed with his expereince and contacts as M.L.A will emerge easily, plus his time as a provincial Progressive Conservative will stop any of the Red Tories that Mr. Borotsik represented from not turning up at the polls.
25/05/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
Merv Tweed is no Rick Borotsik. Borotsik's departure was a huge loss to the Conservatives, as he was popular and had a broad base. Tweed, on the other hand, while experienced as an MLA, is not nearly as popular.
However, that really doesn't matter. The Conservatives will take this one with ease no matter who their candidate is. The real race here will be for second place.
24/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
The CPC can parade enough old red tories through this riding to keep them on board.
I can really see all those red Tories on the farms saying "you know, I like how Martin and company are raiding the national treasury, lets get them back"
CA almost won this last time, the riding associaiton divsions are gone and a single strong CPC campaign will occur
24/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're surprised that this riding is considered too close to call. It is rural, small c conservative and last time out the combined right wing vote was close to 70%. Borotsik was popular, but not enough so that his absence will result in a Liberal win (he won only 37% of the vote). We'd say a safe conservative keep.
24/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding is one of the, if not THE, most Conservative riding in the nation. In 1993 a Liberal won here by a thousand votes, but a united party would have won by seven thousand. In 1997 and 2000, the PC Party finished first, and the Reform/Alliance finished second, a rarity in the country. In 1984, the PC Party won, and the Confederation of Regions party finished second, the CoR was a right-wing Party in the 80's. Going all the way back to the founding of the riding in 1953, you find a streak of PC wins. In the 2 ridings that came togethor to create this one in 1953, we find more proof. In souris, we find the riding altating between the Progressives and the Conservatives. The city of Brandon was Liberal and Conservative, but it had some notable MP's including Clifford Sifton, and more importantly, the right-wing, Dalton McCarthy. There is just no way this riding will elect anybody but the Conservative candidate.
19/03/04 The Hack
Email: threeoheightseats@hotmail.com
Merv Tweed is an excellent MLA and has a profile in Brandon. Murray Downing is a weaker Liberal candidate and a rural candidate just like Merv, so the Brandon vote will likely go with the more polished Mr. Tweed. This is a safe CPC seat.
18/03/04 Jason Colpitts
Email: jbcolpitts@shaw.ca
As a former resident of Brandon, I can safely say that this seat will NOT go Liberal, with Borotsik not seeking re-election, most of the former Borotsik vote will strengthen the already heavy former Alliance strength in this region; look for the CPC to take this one by a landslide.
17/03/04 Ghoris
Email: [hidden]
No way the Liberals are taking this one, Borotsik or no Borotsik. The only time this seat has not voted PC since WWII was a fluke Liberal win in 1993. Tweed wins, no contest.
16/03/04 Jon F
Email: [hidden]
A full two-thirds of Borotsik's vote from the last election could go to the Liberals and they would still be a few points back of the Conservatives, if all else was equal. This is a strong small-c conservative riding, and the Liberals have nominated a candidate that is largely unknown in the city of Brandon (half of the voters).
16/03/04 Drew Ostash
Email: drewostash1@hotmail.com
This is riding will clearly not vote Liberal in the next election. The Liberals blew any chance they had when they nominated Murray Downing- the Farmer Activist. Through the grapevine Ive found out that Liberal party volunteers in Brandon wont even lift a finger for this man, they
won't work for him.
There is no doubt in my mind this riding is a Conservative slam dunk.
Merv Tweed will be Brandon-Souris' next MP.
15/03/04 Me
Email: [hidden]
I'll take issue with the prediction of a slim Liberal win in Brandon Souris.
This will be one of the easiest wins for the new CPC in the province. Liberals are an afterthough here.
01/03/04 Patrick Webber
With Rick Borotsik not running this time around, I think this seat will fall to the Liberals. Most of PC vote from 2000 will go Liberal, since Borotsik was more of a Red Tory than a new Conservative. Narrow Liberal victory.

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