12:02 PM 16/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:38 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Christian Heritage
Colin Atkins
Brad Bird
Murray Downing
Lisa Gallagher
Bob Senff
Merv Tweed
Mike Volek

Merv Tweed

2004 Result:
Merv Tweed
Murray Downing
Mike Abbey
David Kattenburg
Colin Atkins
Lisa Gallagher

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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14 01 06 Bear and Ape
Are you for real? A Liberal win here? You can not compair 2000 votes with 2004 votes since the candidates were not the same and the fact that the right-wing party (parties) were not the same. In 2004 there was no incumbant. In 2000 there was a VERY popular incumbent, so there is no mystery in why the 2004 numbers were closer than they were in 2000. The CPC was pretty much an unknown and mistrusted in 2004, yet they still took this riding by a very comfortable margin (10,000 votes). Now they are poised to take the government, they are not as scary as they used to be and the nation as a whole are ready for change. Very easy CPC keep.
13 01 06 Jody (age 23)
Brandon-Souris went Liberal in 1993. The Liberals have wisely urged Mr. Downing to run again after closing the gap significantly in the last election. In Brandon-Souris, everyone that pays attention seems to know Murray Downing. Mr. Downing appears to hold closely to most of the Liberal party ideals that make them so popular. We must remember these ideals are a lot closer to Rick Borotsik's old defunct P.C. party than they are to the new ultra right-wing "conservative-lite" party. The differences between the Liberal party and this party are approximately (or may I say exactly) 180 degrees of each other.
22 12 05 M. Gabrielle
Just a correction on a previous entry, Brandon-Souris went Liberal in 1993. The Liberal Party does not seem likely to win a second term this time around. The Liberals have gone again with Murray Downing, who has publicly stated that the only reason he is under the Liberal banner is to give Brandon-Souris a voice - his reason being that the Liberals are the party likely to form government. However, his policies were much like those of Conservative opponent Merv Tweed, most notably in regards to marriage equality. In 2004, given the choice between Conservative and Conservative-lite, voters chose the real thing - and the results should be very much the same in 2006.
19 12 05 Laurence Putnam
This riding has been a historical Tory stronghold - known best as the only Western Canada PC seat in 1993 and 1997. Reform and the Alliance placed close seconds, with the Liberals well back. So even if half of former PC voters are going to the Liberals, the new Conservatives still come out well ahead of the Libs. But this is rural Manitoba, and Borotsik used to win on his name rec, so it isn't a case of half of former PC voters voting Liberal anyway - the new Tories will clear this riding easily.
12 07 05 Nick Boragina
The Souris' ridings (in Saskatchewan and one in Manitoba) are some of the strongest small-c conservative ridings in the country. I think the fact that the MP here followed a PC MP in a riding the CA finished secind in, is a sign that he can win against a no-name Liberal or no-name NDPer. When it comes to these things, party names are like brand names, and people here like their MP's "Conservative" not "Presidents Choice Liberal" or "Our Compliments NDP"
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Except for Churchill, Rural Manitoba is solid Conservative territory so Merv Tweed will easily be re-elected regardless of who Rick Borotsik endorses this time around.

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