Prediction Changed
6:03 PM 11/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Mississauga South
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Arrison, Hugh
Laushway, Richard
Szabo, Paul
New Democratic
Turner, Matt

Paul Szabo

2006 Result:
Paul Szabo **
Phil Green
Mark de Pelham
Brendan Tarry
Paul D.J. McMurray
Dagmar Sullivan

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 03 SH
Support for the Libs has eroded, the Cons are on their way up in Ont, I think this will be a pickup. However there seems to be very little talk in the riding, and little exposure from both main candidates. It won't take much for Hugh to pickup some votes, some Libs to stay home or switch. As well Paul seems to be campaigning on more of a ‘please keep me and my staff from being unemployed’ - he is a good MP who has never made it anywhere in the Liberal party...and probably never will.
08 09 27 Christopher
I think it's still too early to say this is a safe Liberal Seat. Mr. Szabo has been here 15 years, and I'm not here to say he hasn't done a good job, but this riding is and has been traditionally conservative, and in the end, it will eventually return that way, despite the disaster that Brian Mulrouney caused. This, plus the fact that the Conservatives have narrowed the race significantly in the past two elections suggests the Tories may just do it this time.
Mr. Arrison seems a friendly fellow that is willing to listen to constituents, and he's been targeting commuters on the GO train, which demonstrates a good sense of initiative. I find that constituents will warm up to him in time, even though he may not be the Tories' star candidate.
And although Szabo is a veteran, and the fact that he is still winning the sign war (at least in Clarkson), what do sign wars mean these days? It might mean Arrison's simply taking it easy on the lawn signs.
If the Tory gains in the 905 occur, I'm strongly banking it will be this one and neighbouring Oakville that will be the first to turn blue once again.
That's just my opinion though. I'm not going against Szabo, but I'm simply saying this will probably go Tory this time.
08 09 27 R.O.
Can agree with one thing that this seat has not got much media attention but it is part of the 20 battleground ridings being polled for a major newspaper this election. And according to there numbers and an article published this friday they do not feel the liberals can win these close races at this time as the conservatives have pulled ahead in certain parts of Ontario like the 905. if Paul Szabo does lose this one it will be a significant blow to the liberals as he was a high profile committee chair / member during the last parliament and on many high profile committees. What makes this riding winnable for the conservatives is the fact they won a lot of polls here last time and came very close so they do not need to gain much to pull ahead. Well there candidate does not have the benefit of being the incumbent he does at least not have to worry about same leadership issues and green shift controversy that has plagued the liberal campaign. But still too early to say for sure what will happen here.
08 09 26 I'm Always Right
Calgary redneck MP Lee Richardson blamed immigrants for much of the crime in this country in an interview with a local Alberta newspaper this week.
This kind of talk may be popular in the west but it makes it difficult for Conservative candidates in ridings like Mississauga South that have large immigrant populations. It just feed old fears that the Conservatives are anti-immigrant despite all the work Harper has tried to do to put that to rest. The other reason the Conservatives are not going to defeat MP Szabo is Hugh Arrison is without a doubt the weakest candidate they are running in the Peel Region in this election. Put it all together and it's another win for Paul Szabo.
08 09 24 Shotgun Willie
I believe Mississauga South has not received much media attention because it is not seen as a close race. The Conservatives did not find a high profile candidate and instead went with little-known Hugh Arrison this time. Arrison's campaign has been hard to find and he does face the problem of explaining the Harper government's move to tighten immigration laws in a riding with a large population of first generation Canadians. Paul Szabo is not a player in Ottawa and isn't likely to be one but he does have the advantage of being the incumbent along with having far and away the best campaign team on the ground. It looks to me like the Conservatives are putting all their efforts into trying to save Wajid Khan in Mississauga-Streetsville. Szabo won by 3000 votes last time and will come in with about the same victory this time. Mississauga South is not a contest.
08 09 23 Torontonian537
This is one of the Liberals' most endangered seats in the GTA, but strangely a race that is garnering little media attention. This is probably because it's not actually in the City of Toronto, and Paul Szabo has an extremely low profile for a guy who was first elected in 1993. The CPC tide this time is too strong for Szabo. It will be a tough fight, but the Tories will prevail in the end.
08 09 09 Gone Fishing
Three thousand votes are not a ton of votes to make up from 2006 and if the conservatives are to make gains this is one the national war room mus have in it's sights.
Too early to say a swing riding but it at least a possibility and will become more solid if early numbers continue for conservatives.
08 03 22 I'm Always Right
Jim Flaherty put the final nail in the coffin for Mississauga Conservative hopes when he announced the federal government was pumping cash into Go Train service in of all places, Peterborough! Mississauga is commuter country and it was a clear slap in the face to voters there for the federal government to spend transportation dollars in a small town like Peterborough while ignoring the problems peel region faces. So forget about Paul Szabo being in any trouble. Look for a picture of Flaherty and a Go Train in Peterborough on Liberal literature in Mississauga.
08 03 13 Doug The Slug
No surprise seesaw is hoping for a Conservative victory in Mississauga South and the Bear/Ape guy is sitting on the fence. Here's the scoop on Mississauga South. Mississauga and Brampton have voted as a block in the last 5 federal and last 4 provincial elections. Why? Because they are all very uniformed. There's no difference between any of them. Since Szabo has done nothing to stand out and make people in this riding break this pattern, then it makes no sense at all that the Conservatives will win here. Let's not forget that the Harper government has done nothing in reach out to suburban ridings like the ones in Mississauga. It also doesn't help Harper to have a finance minister who tells investors to keep their money out of Ontario. That doesn't go down well with the Bay Street crowd who live in this riding. Brampton and Mississauga will be a sea of Liberal red again.
08 03 10 Peg Leg Pete
No surprise that seesaw is picking the Conservatives in Mississauga South.
Seesaw doesn't understand that the Liberals are stronger in Peel region than they are in any other part of the province. Stephen Harper's right wing message doesn't play in this urban area and the NDP don't exist here.
That means there's no split on the left and the Liberals will sweep this region once again. As usual, Bear and Ape don't want to make a call. No surprise there either. I predict Szabo wins by 5000 votes this time.
08 01 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Seasaw has made a series of recent posts about 905 ridings falling to the CPC, including comments about the possibility of a Peel sweep for Harper. Though we don't buy into many of his agruments, this is one where we'd be almost compelled to agree with him. Why ‘almost compelled to agree’? Because the one nagging fact, the CPC isn't hitting the high notes in the polls (29% in the most recent Harris-Decima poll, vs 36% last election). That doesn't bode well for gaining new seats. Despite this, based on the comments we made back in March and the comments seasaw added about Dion and the GST, this one will be close at the very least.
Date 07 seasaw
This is a must win riding for the CPC, if they wish to form a majority. Though not a bad MP, Mr Szabo's name's come up nationally in a negative way, which may hurt his chances here. Also, if Dion campaigns on hiking the GST and Szabo runs on Dion's platform, it could further tarnish his chances. Remember, Szabo was one of the staunchest opponents of the GST, he even brought forth alternatives, even when it was evident that nothing was going to be done about it. For him to run on this part of Dion's platform, would definitely hurt his credibility.
07 10 22 binriso
Peterson got killed in the provincial election by the Liberals and it wasn’t even close. Although that does not really matter here federally, that has to be a somewhat bad sign for the CPC. Not to mention some growth in the Mississauga area which favors the Liberals. Im going to say a Liberal hold, but it’ll be a bit closer than last time. I have to think the Liberals will fight hard to hold onto these close ridings especially in the 905. Although the way things are going it could go down hill pretty fast.
07 07 31 A.S.
I noted re '04 that thanks a bit to the ex-PC schism and ‘Martin Tory’ phenomenon, the Miss South Liberals actually did worse in a lot of poor/middle left-leaning than affluent right-leaning areas--well, with the clear and increasingly unscary prospect of PM Harper in '06, it was the affluent Martin Tories' time to make the most marked swing away from the Grits! So, Lorne Park became Blue again, and after years of determined, well-reasoned, yet futile targeting, CPC finally turned Paul Szabo's seat into the marginal it presumably should have been all along. And as for my other earlier note re provincial prospects, well, Tim Peterson's thrown that whole thing inside out. But while Szabo's no prize for all his time in office, given the continued maturing/diversifying nature of the inner 905 I still see his defeat far from a foregone conclusion, whatever the provincial representation--it could just as well be a little more tightening, a little more feeling of Conservative thwartedness. Yeah, I know, darn it.
07 04 02 Angry Ontarian
Controversy erupted this week. The Liberal MPP, Tim Peterson (former Grit Premier David Peterson's brother) bid the Liberals au revior to run for John Tory. That means no provincial organization to help Paul Szabo this time. And its affluent WASP 905 ridings like this and Oakville that should be among the first to go Conservative. Afterall, Grits took this by only 2,500 votes.
07 03 22 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
This was the closest Mississauga race in 2006 and with ridings like this being the primary target of the CPC, it's too early to call. This riding has an air to in not unlike Oakville or Burlington and the current CPC government would appeal to many here. Is Szabo's incumbency factor strong enough to ward off the CPC offensive? We're leaning to 'no' but the election is still a-ways off. Time will tell...

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