Update/Mise à jour:
12:22 PM 17/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:11 PM 08/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision

www.electionprediction.com

Mississauga South
Mississauga-Sud

Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

Candidates/candidats:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
NDP/NPD
Mark de Pelham
Conservative/conservateur
Phil Green
Canadian Action
Paul D.J. McMurray
Marxist-Leninist
Dagmar Sullivan
Libearl/libéral
Paul Szabo
Green/Vert
Brendan Tarry

Incumbent/Député:
Paul Szabo

2004 Result/Résultats:
Paul John Mark Szabo
24628
Phil Green
16027
Michael James Culkin
5004
Neeraj Jain
1899
Dagmar Sullivan
107

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

16 01 06 Manny Bure
Mississauga South is a 905 bellwether riding, drifting the same way as the rest of this suburban Toronto region in most provincial and federal elections. Remember that Szabo only won this riding back in ’93 because the PCs and Reform split the vote between them. Many in Mississauga South simply like to back the winner, so if the winds nationally and in 905 are blowing blue, this could be the year that Szabo finally outlives his long overdue welcome.
09 01 06 Not Non-Partisan
Read the polls. In a affluent riding like this, where the electorate likes a government member at least, probably a minister, the voters are going to support Phil Green. It isn't a huge leap from the right-wing Lib Szabo.
28 12 05 M. Lunn
Love, Sydney is right that this is a traditional conservative riding, especially the Lakeshore polls. Ironically enough, the Tories did the worse last election along the Lakeshore. This probably has to do with the fact the wealthy are now voting mostly Liberal. Also as a wealthy suburb they may be fiscally conservative, but socially liberal so assuming one votes only along party lines, they would vote Liberal, even though ironically the Liberal candidate here is probably more socially conservative than the Conservative candidate. Either way I expect this to stay Liberal federally. Next provincial election I expect the Ontario PCs to regain this as John Tory's style of conservatism is more sellable in the 905 belt over Stephen Harper's.
25 12 05 love, sydney
It doesn't take a big swing in this riding to change the colour from red to blue. A very conservative minded area, with the well-to-do waterfront as its base, has settled in the past with the small-c Liberal MP.
01 10 05 A.S.
Ah, how the United Right inverted voting patterns along the Lakeshore: with all those old definitely-not-ReformAlliance PCs tipping themselves into the Paul Martin camp, the Liberal percentages now tended to be (however marginally) worse in blue-collar zones like Park Royal, than in erstwhile blue-blue-Tory zones like Lorne Park! And no, don't blame Paul Szabo's social conservatism for that--though like so many federal Libs in Ontario, who knew this vaguely accidental consequence of Kim Campbell's implosion would turn out to be a fairly permanent fixture in Parliament? As it stands, Tories in Miss S are now like NDPers in Beaches-EY; overperforming at street level, underperforming at the ballot box--but someday, yes, they might be lucky, all of the elements are there. Or, *were* there. Still could be, given this is 905 rather than 416--but as the '03 provincial election affirmed, demographic changes have even overcome Bluest Mississauga. And the rate things are going, it may even be a struggle for a "sure-bet" provincial Tory takeback...
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Generally speaking this is a conservative area due to the high price waterfront homes and I expect John Tory to re-capture this seat next provincial election. However, unlike John Tory, Stephen Harper is not a moderate and social conservatism doesn't sell well anywhere in the GTA regardless of how affluent the area is. Most Tories here are your Belinda Stronach type Tories and if she couldn't stand being in the same party as Stephen Harper, I suspect it will be the same for many traditional Tory voters here. Ironically Paul Szabo is a strong social conservative, but people in the GTA unlike rural Ontario vote primarily for the party, not local candidate.
16 05 05 Craig
This should be a Liberal hold although the narrowest in Mississauga (apart from Erindale due to the independent Carolyn Parrish). AdScam is not likely going to be a major factor here and the GTA is mostly a Liberal hotbed that, except in the outermost suburbs and in the exurbs, does not go for hardline conservatism. That being said, the Conservatives should make it fairly close on economic issues and the budget fallout should be a factor, however Paul Szabo took one of their planks away by voting against gay marriage (and it appears unlikely that it will backfire in favour of the NDP). Predicted results: LIB 43%, CPC 36%, NDP 15%, GRN 5%, others 1%.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
The only conservative areas of this riding are the waterfront areas, which is why this was a PC stronghold provincially up until the boundaries were enlarged to encompass the federal ones. Also, this is a GTA riding where the Conservatives are not very popular. This area tends to be fiscally conservative, but socially liberal making it difficult for the Conservatives to win here. Also Paul Szabo is a social conservative so the Conservatives can forget about picking up a large chunk of the social conservative vote. This will probably be the Conservatives best showing of the Mississauga ridings, but the liberals will still hold it. They have a slim chance at picking up Oakville, possibly Halton and a very good chance of picking up Burlington.
06 05 05 Brandon
The national campaign will ultimately decide the fate of Mississauga South; the best riding for the Tories in this city. Similar to Oakville next door, a lot of hard blue polls in the upper-class streets (Lorne Park) went to the Liberals in 2004. That trend must stop for a Tory victory here, which is not impossible, but way too early to know. Depends on how the 905 Region is swaying because this is one of the more fiscally-conservative ridings in the GTA.



Submit Information here - Soumettez l'information ici

Provincial Index - Actualité provinciale
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2005 - Email Webmaster