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Mississauga South

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:57 PM 6/22/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
8:38 PM 6/26/2004

Constituency Profile
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Michael Culkin
Phil Green
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Neeraj Jain
Dagmar Sullivan
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Paul John Mark Szabo

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Mississauga Centre (8.8%)
Carolyn Parrish
Mississauga South (91.2%)
Paul Szabo

2000 Result/Résultats:
22,249 51.81%
10,809 25.17%
7,555 17.59%
1,712 3.99%
620 1.44%

Mississauga Centre
(25/193 polls, 6635/74228 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Mississauga South
(194/194 polls, 68750/68750 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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17/06/04 DG
Email: [hidden]
The tide is definitely turning. The Liberal signs are catching up on the Conservatives ones which benefitted only from an early blitz campaign. This riding is too comfortable to risk the Conservatives pulling a McGinty with their promises, it'll go Liberal.
14/06/04 Derrick
Email: [hidden]
I have just moved into the area 1 month ago, but if one to were go strictly by sign density, the Conservatives will win this riding by at least a 2 to 1 margin. In my neighbourhood alone, I saw at least 40 Conservative signs before I saw 1 Liberal sign posted. It's been like that since the start of the campaign.
In the past 4 days or so however, the Liberal signs have started to appear in greater numbers. I hope the tide is turning in their favour, but I doubt it.
No NDP signs in sight whatsoever.
10/06/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
I've changed my mind and am predicting a Tory win here. In 1993, PC incumbent Don Blenkarn would have kept this seat if it weren't for vote splitting. The incumbent Liberal here has won every election since with the same amount of votes (21,000 or so). The voter turnout dropped...likely from traditional Tory supporters who knew it wouldn't matter either way and stayed home. Before 1993, Blenkarn held the seat since the late 70's, when "Mississauga" was divided into the North (liberal) and South (tory). Provincially, "Mississauga South" was PC since confederation, surviving the David Peterson Liberal and Bob Rae NDP sweeps and accounted for some of the largest voter majorities in favour of Mike Harris. This riding's demographics look like a stereotypical Tory seat too. In Oakville next door, the staunchiest Tory polls are south of the QEW where the wealthiest people in town live. Mississauga South has more lake-length than Oakville and has many business owners who live in large houses with giant properties. I predict a federal return of the lakeside Tory stockholder's belt of Burlington-Oakville-Mississauga South. Could it extend out to Etobicoke-Lakeshore as well?
10/06/04 GG
Email: [hidden]
When I see prominent Liberals refusing to work for Szabo, I know that his 11 year term is coming to and end. Yes, they will still vote Liberal, but he will need all the help they can get to keep this riding. Its not happening.
04/06/04 GLC
Email: [hidden]
This is traditional conservative territory provincially and Liberal federally. Margaret Marland lost in the McGuinty "sweep" and Szabo will suffer the same fate here. Phil is very well known, has worked in the community for years and is a very solid candidate. PLus in driving around the constituence, the blue signs outnumber the red by about 10 to 1!
25/05/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
This race is indeed "too close to call" and ultimately depends upon the perfomance of party leadership over the next month.
Why do I think the Tories will eventually win?
To build on Derik's point: The Ontario Tories lost this riding by only 200 votes in the fall, and that was only because the incumbent decided to run a "Hazel" campaign. (i.e. She didn't knock on a single door, or distribute a single flyer, in aid of her re-election) Before Marland's loss, this seat had been provincially blue since confederation, and was responsible for the two of largest electoral majorities of the Harris era. Thus, despite redistribution, the Tories CAN win this seat.
The more important point, however, is that Paul Szabo is the dream candidate to run against in the wake of the sponsorship scandal. Every spending report out of Ottawa consistently ranks him amongst the top five in terms of expense account write-offs. Green should, and will, hammer him on the issue until his face, and this seat, are blue.
25/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
The provincial and federal electoral record indicates that ho-hum, this year as in any other year, this is the strongest real or prospective Tory seat in Mississauga--an eternal part of the traditional Lakeshore Road "blue belt" between Toronto and Hamilton. But mind that Marland defeat last year; it isn't so inevitably, dependably "blue" as it used to be. Multicultural Mississauga's left its mark here, too--and as in Burlington and Oakville, even affluent red-Tory WASPS might still be willing to hold their nose and vote Liberal. (Even though Szabo's probably to the right of *them*.) So, if you want *any* hope that Martin will maintain his 905-belt hold and Harper will remain too hard-right for GTA comfort--keep that in mind. But if MS goes, the "rural rump" myth of Tories in Ontario is truly busted...
19/04/04 Michael
Email: mv_genova@hotmail.com
If any of the Mississauga ridings vote out the Liberals, it will definitely be this one. The odds are in favour of the Conservatives for many reasons. Firstly, a smooth founding meeting has brought former CA and PC members together. Secondly, a vigorious nomination race where the membership chose the very educated, trilingual, and hard working Phil Green as their candidate, who has already started canvassing. Thirdly, the campaign is in great financal shape as a result of our candidate being able to raise large sums of money. After redistribution the riding becomes even more Conservative, not too mention there is a huge volunteer group already working!
29/03/04 Interested Observer
Email: [hidden]
I've lived in this riding for many years. It is by far a safe Conservative seat. In the recent provincial election, Tim Peterson only won by 248 votes. Paul Szabo is in trouble. A large portion of his riding association attempted to replace him with another candidate. He barely won the nomination and did so only with the help of Campaign Life. Feeling bitter after the loss, a large number of Liberal volunteers will go elsewhere to help out other Liberal candidates. Szabo was Gagliano's Parliamentary Secretary and a quick review of Hansard shows Szabo's strong defence of the disgraced former Minister. All of this is fotter for Phil Green. Szabo will need a strong national campaign to take the riding and counter Phil Green's two years of canvassing.
24/03/04 Derik
Email: Monikd@hotmail.com
Paul Szabo is in deep trouble here. This is the easiest Tory seat to gain in Mississauga. The tories only lost by 200 votes in the provincial election, and that was with a Liberal wave. Conservative 58, Liberal 39, NDP 3
24/03/04 Jer
Email: jer@jerscape.ca
Phil Green is the strongest Candidate the Conservatives have had in years. Given the high conservative vote last time, and people's inevitable desire for change, all you need is to provide them with a strong well know Candidate(ie, Phile Green) He will take this one no problem.
20/03/04 Karl
Email: Karlm@yahoo.ca
This riding was the best Conservative vote in Mississauga in the 2000 election. Gaining 40%, I think the riding may swing Tory even without a blue wave. If Phil Green is active enough, I think he can pull this one off. My prediction for Mississauga is Streetsville and South go Conservative, but Erindale and East will remain Liberal. Parrish is too popular and the Tory candidate in East ran for the PCs last time and lost brutally coming in third place.
19/03/04 B.M.S.
Email: [hidden]
I think this will be the easiest Mississauga seat to gain, but Tory support needs to be on the rise for this to happen. Currently they don't have a leader, policies or platform, yet over 30% Ontario is committed to the CPC. But even a strong candidate may not be able to pull this off since popular former PC MPP Margaret Marland surprisingly didn't retain her seat provincially. I could see this as a potential Conservative gain but it's too early to tell.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

With 70% support (redistributed) to fall back on, it would take a catastrophe for the Liberals to lose this riding -- regardless of the candidates (and regardless of any Clementine coat-tails).
18/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@hotmail.com
I'm not sure about those tory predictions for Mississauga-Streetsville, but Mississauga South had the highest united conservative vote of 2000, and now has a credible candidate with phil green. Though right now it looks like the liberals will probably win this one, it could be a conservative win if they gain support in urban areas....

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