Prediction Changed
3:35 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Brampton West
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Colleen Beaumier

2006 Result:
Colleen Beaumier **
27988
Bal Gosal
20345
Jagtar Singh Shergill
6310
Jaipaul Massey-Singh
2340

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 04 12 Hannah Montana
216.13.88.86
Brampton West is a district with one of the higher levels of immigrants in this country. As the federal Tories attempt to clamp down on immigration, this issue is going to become very important to people in Brampton and Mississauga. By the end of this sitting of the house of commons, immigration will be front and centre in everyone's minds. This one issue is more than enough for Baumier to hammer on for the entire campaign as the Grits will easily win here. I wouldn't want to be a Tory candidate trying to get votes on this issue.
08 02 10 R.O.
209.91.149.232
This one has been the closest of the 3 Brampton ridings in recent elections, even with no big name the cpc got over 20,000 votes last election but liberals still easily won. But with absence of a big name ( Tony clement ) it won’t be as high profile race as previous elections. The outcome could depend on the issues of the election, know this riding has a large industrial element and nearby Chrysler plant as well. So if the economy is a major issue it could help out certain parties here. Another potential issue is the new Brampton hospital which has caused some issues here ever since it opened. Not sure who that issue would favor or if it would make much of a difference during a federal campaign.
08 01 30 John Johnson
24.138.129.52
Liberal hold, if Beaumier could hold this riding against Tony Clement in 2004, she will hold it again against a much weaker candidate.
07 07 27 A.S.
74.99.222.209
Chalk it up to no more Milhouse with a smidgen of galloping growth on the side, but numerically *and* in percentage, the Tory-Liberal margin opened up more in this seat than any other in Ontario in '06. (With the qualified exception of Newmarket-Aurora--that's right, the two seats where Harper's CPC leadership opponents ran in '04.) And let's assume that even some of '06's remaining Tory support was ?residual?--nevertheless, it's foolish to assume on top of that that CPC's Brampton West competitiveness is fading into oblivion. Though their chances are less along the lines of ?Wajid Khan? spillover than a byproduct of Harper/Flaherty's perks to newest-wave suburbia--especially in a seat positively suffocating in newest-wave suburbia like this one. If the Tories win Brampton West now, expect the seat to be upheld as a belwether and as an emblem.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Considering the size of the Liberal margin last time and how diverse the riding is, I believe the Liberals will hold this unless their numbers seriously tank in the next election in the 905 belt. It was only close in 2004 and provincially in 2003 because both times Tony Clement was the candidate who despite being controversial elsewhere, was well liked amongst a good 40% of people who would vote for him no matter what. Since he holds another riding, there is really no chance of this falling and I doubt he wants to increase the risk of losing his seat by returning here as his chances of re-election in Parry Sound-Muskoka are much better than here.
07 03 27 Nick J Boragina
74.99.228.118
According to statistics canada, this is now the largest riding in the country with over 170,000 people, up from around 110,000 only 5 years ago. This is also the fastest growing riding, frankly I would not be surprised if the population is great enough that next election it will just be split in two. History has shown us that the most mobile populations tend to be Liberal voters, they are either more established middle class families with social concern, or immigrants. If anything the Liberal vote here will go up.
07 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
65.92.158.120
If we're not mistaken, Beaumier is not running again. Without her incumbency we feel that this may go CPC should their support remain as strong as it is in the 905 right now. An interesting race for sure, let's wait and see what develops over the next few weeks/months.



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