Prediction Changed
10:47 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Brampton West
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Chmelyk, Patti
Kania, Andrew
Seeback, Kyle
New Democratic
Shergill, Jagtar

Colleen Beaumier

2006 Result:
Colleen Beaumier **
Bal Gosal
Jagtar Singh Shergill
Jaipaul Massey-Singh

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 King of Kensington
I'm giving the edge to the Liberals in Brampton West, given that the Tories only got 35% last time and given that its rapid growth has probably favored the Libs.
08 10 03
The NDP does not get much support from inside the Indian community.
The NDP guy just gets the typical NDP support.
The Sikh vote is very important in this riding and Colleen Beaumier knew that and she stayed very popular in that community.
I remember a picture in the newspaper of Colleenn winning and she was surrounded by old south Asian men who were jumping in jubilation. It was a funny picture and I am would be certain that this riding would go Conservative otherwise.
Kaina imo appeals very well to the community and a lot of the community really like him. He is a smart soft liberal type and he is introduced himself on most of the major Indian papers and television programs.
Sure not everyone will go for him, but he will win a massive amount of support here in that communtuty. Kyle Seeback imo is making zero impact as Stella Ambler is in Bramalea Gore Malton.
Imo these seats in Brampton will be very hard to get. If Kania gets elected he imo will keep winning with the incumbent factor.
08 10 02 cheema
Andrew Kania is a rising star and according to the Globe and Mail he has strong support from the sizeable Sikh community.He will win by at least 5000 this time against a relatively unknown non-Sikh Conservative. The Liberals won this by 7000 plus last time against a strong Sikh candidate.Even though the new conservative candidate Kyle Seeback is not that high profile.Even Mr. Seeback have no supprort from the sikh community.
08 09 29 Lloyd
A couple previous comments don't make sense and do deserve response. First, the person who insists on picking Andrew Kania because Kania has the support of the 'sizable Sikh' population (weight aside): as I've said before, no one wins an election by attracting only one minority group consisting of less tan 15% of Brampton's total eligable voters. The Sikh voters do no longer vote in blocks. In fact, the NDP candidate happens to be Sikh and is fully entitled to expect a goodly portion of his ethnic group to vote his way.
Next, the wishful thinker who tallied up the pros and cons and picked Mr. Seeback. In your tally, you correctly noted that Kania and Seeback are each unknowns.
08 09 28 Bob
This will stay out of the grasp of the Conservatives. Andrew Kania is a rising star and according to the Globe and Mail he has strong support from the sizeable Sikh community. The Liberals won this by 7000 plus last time against a strong Sikh candidate. He will win by at least 5000 this time against a relatively unknown non-Sikh Conservative.
08 09 27 R.O.
While back had though this riding was going to stay liberal but as the campaign has progressed its looking more like it could fall to the conservatives. As polling puts them well ahead in the 905 area this election according to latest polls tracking the close battleground ridings in ontario. Combine that with fact liberal mp is not even running again here and ridings close results last election and its previous history as a swing riding. Indicates to me that it might not be a liberal riding much longer. Even though the new conservative candidate Kyle Seeback is not that high profile but neither is the liberal Andrew Kania so that disadvantage is evened out.
08 09 21 Lloyd
I'd still bet on a Liberal election in this riding. Probably something in the order of Vic Dhillon's defeat of Tony Clement - very narrow, maybe less than a 1,000 votes.
I do not agree with thepundit who suggested that the Indo-Canadian vote in the riding is (alone) sufficient to carry an election victory for any candidate, regardless of their political stripe. The demographics tell us that the Indo-Canadian vote is less than 15% - if they vote. History shows that such a vote can easily be divided by way of internecine squabbles and family preferences. No one can say that all Indo-Canadians prefer Liberals, Conservatives or NDP.
As to my friend's analysis of the riding wherein he/she feels that the east side of the riding favour Conservatives simply becasue ‘those people’ are Caucasians, the assumption is both racist in incorrect. The majority of NDP vote also happens to be Caucasians. Moreover, in Colleen's sweeping vitory over the former mayor's son ('97?) I recall that Colleen took all but 2 polls, neither of which was in the ‘large-homed, Caucasian east’. One was in a retirement home and the other lost poll was in a downtown area.
Complicatign things this time will be (I suspect) a shift of long time Liberals over to the Green Party causing some split of ‘left-leaning Liberal votes’. By that, I specifically mean that there are many small ‘L’ Liberals who alligned with Colleen, herself a lefty. Many of those will not vote Liberal or NDP preferring insead to move ahead with their own green shift. The Liberal party is in a very fractous period and those types of things have a habit of taking on monsterous proportions when a riding is contested by a non-incumbent such as Mr. Kania. Incumbent candidaes have the ability (by way of leadership and experience) of setting asdie party fueds and running as their own person. All of Kania's invovlement in Dion's leadership is really a sword that cuts two ways.
An interesting race to watch as already 2 weeks into it and no canidate is setting the world ablaze. A few signs here and there by each of the 2 mainstream parties but nothing that even closely resembles Beaumier/Clement. A reall sleeper this time around and I do not think local or national debates will change much here. Brampton West has always been (Provencially and Federally) a riding that is best captured by door to door work. Tony Clement was excellent at it. He actually began canvassing the day after each election and kept it up until he personally visited each home in the riding at least 2 or 3 times.
08 09 19
Seeback has the support of the eastern parts of this riding (i.e. downtown area) which is where there are bigger houses owned by affluent Caucasian but the Liberals will sweep everything else due to a high South Asian population that identify will Liberals most of the time. There is Jagtar Shergill in this riding but I do have to admit that the NDP do not get much attention in this city and it puts him at a disadvantage in terms of capturing the key South Asian vote. Also, I hear that the NDP do not get much attention in the South Asian-Canadian media (i.e. newspapers, radio interviews). So with all this factored in, I think Kania will easily win this one and go on to a prominent career in politics (maybe a minister one day?).
08 09 13 Lloyd Fournier
I was just informed that Andrew Kania won the nomination for this riding last night in Brampton. Andrew will benefit from Colleen's legacy in this riding. The days are long gone when a Conservative can meerly throw his/her hat in the ring and presume victory. Tony Clement learned that twice in short order and ended up moving on.
Andrew is a bright young man and a well known local lawyer. Kania has worked hard (about 8 years) for his nomination and I congratulate him.
Colleen's last campaign was pretty low octane (with all respect)and thus the results appeared much closer than they really were. Expect Kania, a pretty energetic guy, to absolutely rool over the Conservative panic pick, Mr. Seeback.
08 09 05 R.O.
With the announcement that longtime liberal mp Colleen Beaumier is not running again the race here has got more interesting even though her retirement was not a total surprise. This has been a liberal riding since 93 and has changed a lot since than as well. But still a lot of uncertainty here as the liberals now have to nominate a new candidate very quickly and it remains to be seen if the other candidates running here can make inroads in this now vacant riding. So its now become one of the more competitive ridings in peel.
08 09 03 Don't Tase Me, Bro!
Can someone explain why this riding is TCTC? Colleen Beaumier is running again. She has surprisingly strong support in the South Asian community that is a bedrock of Brampton demographics, and the Conservative running against her this time is someone nobody's ever heard of. Unless they put another high profile individual as Colleen's opponent, (i.e. Tony Clement, Bill Davis type) this riding will stay Liberal for years to come.
Editor’s Note: Ms. Beaumier has announced that she is not seeking reelection
08 04 12 Hannah Montana
Brampton West is a district with one of the higher levels of immigrants in this country. As the federal Tories attempt to clamp down on immigration, this issue is going to become very important to people in Brampton and Mississauga. By the end of this sitting of the house of commons, immigration will be front and centre in everyone's minds. This one issue is more than enough for Baumier to hammer on for the entire campaign as the Grits will easily win here. I wouldn't want to be a Tory candidate trying to get votes on this issue.
08 02 10 R.O.
This one has been the closest of the 3 Brampton ridings in recent elections, even with no big name the cpc got over 20,000 votes last election but liberals still easily won. But with absence of a big name ( Tony clement ) it won’t be as high profile race as previous elections. The outcome could depend on the issues of the election, know this riding has a large industrial element and nearby Chrysler plant as well. So if the economy is a major issue it could help out certain parties here. Another potential issue is the new Brampton hospital which has caused some issues here ever since it opened. Not sure who that issue would favor or if it would make much of a difference during a federal campaign.
08 01 30 John Johnson
Liberal hold, if Beaumier could hold this riding against Tony Clement in 2004, she will hold it again against a much weaker candidate.
07 07 27 A.S.
Chalk it up to no more Milhouse with a smidgen of galloping growth on the side, but numerically *and* in percentage, the Tory-Liberal margin opened up more in this seat than any other in Ontario in '06. (With the qualified exception of Newmarket-Aurora--that's right, the two seats where Harper's CPC leadership opponents ran in '04.) And let's assume that even some of '06's remaining Tory support was ?residual?--nevertheless, it's foolish to assume on top of that that CPC's Brampton West competitiveness is fading into oblivion. Though their chances are less along the lines of ?Wajid Khan? spillover than a byproduct of Harper/Flaherty's perks to newest-wave suburbia--especially in a seat positively suffocating in newest-wave suburbia like this one. If the Tories win Brampton West now, expect the seat to be upheld as a belwether and as an emblem.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Considering the size of the Liberal margin last time and how diverse the riding is, I believe the Liberals will hold this unless their numbers seriously tank in the next election in the 905 belt. It was only close in 2004 and provincially in 2003 because both times Tony Clement was the candidate who despite being controversial elsewhere, was well liked amongst a good 40% of people who would vote for him no matter what. Since he holds another riding, there is really no chance of this falling and I doubt he wants to increase the risk of losing his seat by returning here as his chances of re-election in Parry Sound-Muskoka are much better than here.
07 03 27 Nick J Boragina
According to statistics canada, this is now the largest riding in the country with over 170,000 people, up from around 110,000 only 5 years ago. This is also the fastest growing riding, frankly I would not be surprised if the population is great enough that next election it will just be split in two. History has shown us that the most mobile populations tend to be Liberal voters, they are either more established middle class families with social concern, or immigrants. If anything the Liberal vote here will go up.
07 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
If we're not mistaken, Beaumier is not running again. Without her incumbency we feel that this may go CPC should their support remain as strong as it is in the 905 right now. An interesting race for sure, let's wait and see what develops over the next few weeks/months.

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