Election Prediction Project
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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
5:24 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
11:36 AM 6/27/2004

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Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ruby Dhalla
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Nick Hudson
Sam Hundal
Gurdev Singh Mattu
Kathy Pounder

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Bramalea-Gore-Malton-Springdale (16.3%)
Hon. Gurbax Malhi
Brampton Centre (83.7%)
Sarkis Assadourian

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,752 54.61%
6,935 21.34%
5,622 17.30%
1,563 4.81%
632 1.94%

(13/189 polls, 10688/78387 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Brampton Centre
(133/180 polls, 54728/72139 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 Full Name
Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Brampton-Springdale has just another Paul Martin parachute candidate who pissed off their riding association in the 905 with Ruby Dhalla. But even though the grassroot favourite Melissa Bhagat, as well as Manley organizer Andrew Kania and past member Sarkis Assadourian, isn't running independent and instead is joining their association in campaigning for the New Democrat, many local Liberal supporters and volunteers have moved on to other camps or have been turned off the race completely unless they have promises from Martin himself of a big time pay-off at the end of the tunnel. Sam Hundal wins this one by default or until the Grits get their game together in the next coming months because even Bhagat knows there is always room for seconds.
15/06/04 Don
Email: [hidden]
With all the liberals switching back and forth here- given past history of this area- Conservatives will likely come up the middle and win with about 40% of the vote. Brampton tends to vote for the winning party.
14/06/04 Paul
Email: [hidden]
It appears after a week of ups and downs for Dr. Ruby Dhalla, she has been able to show why, she was choosen as a star candidate for the riding of Brampton-Springdale. As, she has been able to bounce back from the negativity created by the former riding executive and disgruntled liberal candidate Andrew Kania. Three of the top and influnetial riding executives have all come on board Dr. Ruby Dhalla campaign team now, which includes the riding President and Vice-President and momentum has clearly started to shift in favour od her. It appears that since she has been able to stand this tough controvesial week, her popularity has grow and as a flood of Dhalla signs are up all over the riding. She is a definitely lock to win this riding!
13/06/04 BMS
Email: [hidden]
The combined CA/PC vote in this riding was 5,000 less than the Libs. The NDP got about 1,500 votes. With the Libs as unpopular as they are and NDP support double of that as last time, the Conservatives actually have a good shot at this riding by coming up the middle (now that the local Liberal campaign has tanked). The NDP won't win here considering their dismal performance last time and the fact that not all liberals will shift their support over there. I think the Tories will take this seat, but by a small margin. Definitly a riding to watch.
10/06/04 Dave
Email: dmolenh2@uwo.ca
I have been in touch with Dhalla and Pounder's campaigns and although "Dr." (are chiropractors really doctors? Come on!) Ruby has momentum there has been serious backlash against her appointment as candidate. And the fact that she doesn't live in the riding is also not playing very well. There have been writeups in the Globe, the Guardian, etc...about it and at the doorstep, people have been responding very well. There hasn't been too much rhyme or reason to the distribution of lawn signs as I have seen them in both the northern and southern sections of the riding. Pounder has some excellent dedicated people working for her campaign and has absorbed half of the Liberal riding association. This riding could go NDP. The redistribution of borders has also added left leaning sections which were previously in the Brampton centre riding.
10/06/04 MJL
Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
Firstly, chiropractors aren't real doctors (at least for the purposes of prestige). If they were, we'd have to call Jim Pankiw Dr. Pankiw - I don't think anybody wants to have to face that ognominy.
Secondly, the Liberal riding association is backing the NDP candidate, in anger over the appointment of Dhalla.
Thirdly, I think it is pretty patronizing to assume that the indo-Canadian population will vote for somebody because they were in Bollywood movies.
Fourthly, the numbers in this riding are fairly close to the 2000 results for the province. With the Liberals and Conservatives neck-in-neck across the province, this riding should definitely be placed in the too-close-to-call column
10/06/04 Anon
Email: [hidden]
With the Liberal riding association's recent defection from their appointed to Pounder (NDP candidate), this riding must definitely be considered 'in-play' today.
It seems probable that we now have a 3-way race; at very least we can count on some Liberal votes moving to the NDP. How many will move? Given the volatility of the campaign and the recent dramatic local turmoil, I don't believe anyone can make an accurate, objective assessment. The partisans will surely jump in to claim "no effect at all" or "huge shift pending," but no doubt the truth lies somewhere in the middle.
This riding's prediction should be changed to "Too Close," at least for another week until the dust settles. Predicting a victory by the Liberals here (or by anyone else) today seems far beyond merely risky.
09/06/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
I know this is not Hamilton, but I seem to remember a certain Liberal-appointed candidate losing a provincial by-election recently... With the riding association backing the NDP candidate AND a former liberal running with the Conservatives, it seems logical that this could turn into a two- or three-way race.
09/06/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
...if Ruby wins, she will do so without her riding association executive which has apparently jumped to the NDP for this contest!
09/06/04 Inukjuak
Email: [hidden]
So...the fact that the Liberal riding executive has voted to support the NDP candidate in this riding would be a sign of the strength and unity of the Liberal party and the esteem in which their candidate is held here? This is going orange.
08/06/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
After reading Thomas Walkom's column in the Star today I am calling my riding Conservative. The Liberals are in complete disarray. Here is an excerpt of his column :
"Last Sunday, the local Liberal riding association voted overwhelmingly to support New Democratic Party candidate Kathy Pounder against Liberal Ruby Dhalla — a Martin supporter parachuted into that riding by the Prime Minister over the objections of two other candidates who had been organizing for months."
This should be enough to split the left wing vote and allow a moderate conservative like Sam Hundal to be elected. No wonder that I am not seeing Liberal sign like I saw last fall.
04/06/04 Rich
Email: [hidden]
This is a fairly safe seat for the Liberals. Ruby Dhalla is a fantastic candidate who combines small business knowledge with professional health care experience. Definitely one of the most exciting candidates in this election, Ruby is a young female who is touted as a prospect for a Jr. Minister's portfolio when the Liberals form a government.
Her opponent, Sam Hundal, who failed in a nomination race for the Liberals several years ago, isn't going to provide much of a race. Hundal isn't nearly as articulate as Dhalla and will struggle through any debate that he agrees to, as well as at the door.
01/06/04 Gavin Gill
Email: [hidden]
I think the seat should go to Sam Hundal of the Conservatives alhtough this riding has traditionally been Liberal. But due to the liberal nomination battle and the surprise announcement of Ruby Dhalla (educated as a chiropractor who once announced that she would becoming an actress but now wants to become an MP), the vote it seems might be swayed in the direction of the Conservative candidate. Sam Hundal was recently nominated as their candidate after the surprise withdrawal of Gurjit Grewal. Hundal has lost before but he is well known in the community and has more credibility this time than the liberals' appointed actress/chiropractor/candidate.
23/05/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
It's interesting that all three defeated provincial PCs in Brampton are trying for the Feds in '04...but one of them, Joe Spina, has chosen to run elsewhere. And what disarray, with the withdrawal of one-time perennial Liberal Gurjit Grewal from the CPC candidacy. The Liberals are not without their share of "appointed candidate" chaos, either; but here, the traits of said candidate are well above the norm. And it's the kind of fresh-faced, mostly young/mostly new seat which isn't *that* hyped-up about dumping the Martin Liberals. In fact, for all we know, the NDP (which has taken to energetic local campaigning in recent years) could take over the second spot...
11/05/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
A house divided cannot stand. Andrew Kania and his followers are pretty upset with the lack of integrity that the PM has shown. Many Liberals won't be there to help out in the election. And on election day some will vote for another party or just stay home. The NDP won't win here but the Conservatives have a shot depending on the candidate they choose.
08/05/04 Carol
Email: [hidden]
The Announcement by the Prime Minister for the appointment of Dr. Ruby Dhalla as the Liberal Party Candidate is an excellent choice. Dr. Dhalla has been involved with the Liberal Party for a number of years and will be an asset to the party and to the riding of Brampton Springdale
08/05/04 Jacob
Dr. Ruby Dhalla is the nominated Liberal candidate here. She is young, smart, very in tune with the Indo-Canadian community (she has been in Bollywood movies) and presents herself well. She is going to be the first Indo-Canadian woman ever elected to the House of Common. Dr. Dhalla would be a great cabinet possibility.
03/05/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Apparently, there isn't a Conservative candidate either, anymore. Something about an undeclared arrest record?
03/05/04 Shawn
Email: Shawn@yahoo.ca
How can this riding be predicted has Liberal if there isn't a nominated Liberal candidate?
18/03/04 Rob
Email: [hidden]
The Liberal party has yet to call a nomination meeting. It is postponed for fear that Mr. Assadourian might loss the nomination. Too much Liberal infighting, which will see some Liberals just stay home. Furthermore, it does not help the Liberals that a big chunk of the more affluent (and more Indian) Springdale became part of this riding after the redistribution. This should favour Mr. Grewal.

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