Election Prediction Project
Projet D'Élection Prévision


Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:03 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:03 PM 6/26/2004

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Malcolm Azania
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Debby Carlson
Parti Marijuana Party:
Dave Dowling
Kevan Hunter
Rahim Jaffer
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Cameron Wakefield

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Edmonton Southeast (8.9%)
Hon. David Kilgour
Edmonton-Strathcona (91.1%)
Rahim Jaffer

2000 Result/Résultats:
20,711 41.18%
16,500 32.81%
7,523 14.96%
4,396 8.74%
1,159 2.30%

Edmonton Southeast
(22/165 polls, 7295/67204 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(214/261 polls, 74370/88948 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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22/06/04 Tony Nickonchuk
Email: [hidden]
Malcolm Azania is set to win. After the whole anti-semitism garbage, his popularity has just increased. Lawn signs have been flying up everywhere and people are pulling down his signs and everything. I think people are ready for change in this riding.
20/06/04 LJ
Email: [hidden]
These people that think that the Azania tempest in a teapot will hurt him are crazy. All it did was allow him to get his face in the papers and his charming face and voice on TV--pumping up his presence. His act was really a minor one (posting on a web forum a decade ago!), and his explanation and apology were sincere. The posters on this forum and people writing to newspapers are forgetting that this is not Montreal or Toronto, it is EDMONTON, ALBERTA. The Jewish vote is a small one, and, let's face it, this is the province that re-elected Ralph after he got wasted and staggered into a men's shelter and proceeded to berate the homeless for being lazy and throw coins at them! This is also a riding where the main opposition (Jaffer) got his buddy to impersonate him while on a radio show! The NDP are lucky to have a guy like Azania in this riding, as it will be the first federal orange seat in Alberta in longer than I can remember.
20/06/04 Adam
This is a very progressive riding, socially. Harper is bringing down the right wing, and Azania has led a very strong campaign. If NDP took 15% in previous election, and Alberta numbers for NDP show doubled support, likely concentrated in urban areas, especially Edmonton, then the numbers for this riding would be closer to 30% or higher. The Greens also don't split the left wing vote, because the greens are right wing, led by a tory. Definately the breakout riding for the NDP in Alberta.
16/06/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
With the collapse of the Liberals continuing, the Libs and NDippers will be fighting hard for the "anybody but Harper" votes. The problem is that neither of those two parties can stand up and say that their candidate is the one that can clearly do it. Back to the tories by default.
15/06/04 pink
I'm changing my prediction from Tory to 'too close to call.'
The part of the riding I live in is flooded with NDP election signs, even after the controversy over Azainia's 10 year old internet postings. The NDP are all over the media, and I've heard from them on the phones and in my mail box. Other parts of the riding seem to have a surprising number of NDP signs up, even in traditional Liberal and Conservative areas. The Liberal campaign seems non-existant.
I'm not ready to call this for the NDP, this is Alberta afterall, but it sure seems like Azania is the one to beat here.
If signs, leaflets, canvassing and media presence are an indication, the race is between the NDP and the Cons.
14/06/04 JW
Email: jeremywench@yahoo.com
I was excited at first at the momentum that Malcolm Azania had generated, but in the light of his recent anti-Semetic comments, the wheel has fallen off his campaign scooter. Personally, I will no longer support him though his party is great. I predict that Rahim Jaffer will now win in a landslide due to Malcolm's scandal and hurtful remarks. Rahim jaffer has a proven track record and seems to have the most integrity of the candidates running in Edmonton-Strathcona. I predict Jaffer 45%, Carlson 30%, Azania 15%, Other 10%
13/06/04 Antoni
Email: [hidden]
Most people in the riding seem to be unphased by the Azania scandal (as a campaign worker I have heard this) - either they have accepted the apology or chalked it up to a youthful indiscrition. Polls show it is a tight 3-way race in which I beleive that unless the Grits and Tories aren't careful that the NDP might steal a seat with just 30% of the votes. If Malcolm can get out the youth vote and the disenchanted people tired of the Liberals and unwilling to vote Conservative or scared of the Tories and unwilling to vote Liberal - remains to be seen. The only fact remains that despite U of Alberta alumn Colby Cosh's best attempt - he may have only strength Azania's chance
12/06/04 Sadly Undecided
Email: [hidden]
There seems to be a great deal of enthusiasm on behalf of some of the posters in this group and it is commendable, but we have a dog's breakfast of a riding here. Mr. Jaffer has been most notable in his invisiability in Ottawa, and his frequent appearances in the Hill Times as the Laziest MP - no rising star here (but let's face it, you could run a stuffed rabbit in a suit under the reform banner in Alberta and stand a decent chance at winning from the ideological vote)Debbie Carlson likely regrets jumping ship from the Provincial Liberals, but she made her leap when it looked like Mr. Martin would sweep the country, now she looks like an opportunist with a bad eye for opportunity. Mr Azania...ahhh Mr. Azania, just don't want to go there. All of this is terribly suprising because the area is quite dynamic in Provincial and Municipal politics. My predicition is that Edmonton Strathcona will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in the region and that Mr. Jaffer will slip by into the anonymity of Ottawa for another 4 years...sigh.
Email: [hidden]
Azania getting pummelled because of his USENET essay and the continuing momentum of the Conservatives will unite the left wing vote behind Debby Carlson. A surprise win for the liberals in strathcona.
11/06/04 jason
Email: [hidden]
A close race, but I give this one to the Conservatives. The NDP had a shot, but recent revelations about Malcolm Azania's past writings should persuade enough voters not to support him. This might shift some votes to the Liberals, but I still give the slight edge here to Rahim Jaffer.
11/06/04 NWA
Email: [hidden]
I'm sure that my post will go up with about 200 others saying Azania's self-destruction will drive people over to Carlson for the win. Complete bunk.
There was a lot of excitement about him, but he was never going to win. The NDP took 15% of the vote in both 1997 and 2000, and my guess is that their ceiling is about 20-25% in this riding. The party's doing a lot better this time, but there are too many voters there who won't touch the NDP.
I'm not convinced that Malcolm will lose that much support from this incident, though it won't help his campaign. There won't be a mass exodus to the Liberals, however: the social justice appeal of his campaign isn't the same as Carlson's. She's decided that the only way she'll survive is to stay close to everybody's favourite shipping magnate, Martin. Try defending Liberal policies here to either the Tories or the NDP.
My guess is that Jaffer will take this one with numbers similar to the last couple of elections: 45% Con, 36% Lib, 18% NDP, 1% Other.
09/06/04 MF
Email: [hidden]
You call Malcolm Azania "the cleanest closet of the lot"? It doesn't seem like Azania's anti-jew comments are going over so well...
Even without that - the NDP are going to be shut out in Alberta. Even some people who would otherwise support the NDP will be voting Liberal strategically. Sorry dippers, but if you're going try to spread NDP hype, it would be way more appropriate in the Trinity-Spadina section.
The NDP will take 0 Alberta ridings. I'd put money on it.
11/06/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
Wow it is good for Rahim that the Green Party candidate is so strong.
Azania has killed himself with those old Internet posts that got pulled out of cyberspace. Thankfully many people who would have voted for him can now turn to the Greens instead of the Liberals.
The 'bounce' Carlson receives from Azania's mistake is a wash with how far and how fast the Liberals are falling.
Welcome back to Parliament Hill Rahim, but keep your assistants off the air.
10/06/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
Looks like Azania just blew it... this morning's Edmonton Journal front page features a huge picture of Azania accompanied by the headline "Azania 'sad' for pain he caused" with the subheadline "Jewish groups condemn NDP canidate for anti-Semitic remarks in 10-year-old online essay". (you can read it yourself at www.colbycosh.com, the columnist who dug this story up).
this changes things completely in this riding... perhaps the vote-splitting on the left won't be as bad as was previously predicted?
10/06/04 Ted Nancy
This riding is now sure to go Liberal. It was already polling the best of any riding in the province for the party, but it looked like a strong NDP candidate may drain away some Liberal support. That all changed today with the National and Local media picking up on intolerant, anti-semetic comments that the NDP candidate Malcolm Azania. NDP support in this riding has collapsed, and as more of Azania's statements become public he will be forced to withdraw from the race. The NDP should spent some more time checking his background before approving his candidacy. The comments that have come out so far are just the begining, this guy has made many outrageous, intolerant statements in the past that will make his continued candidacy impossible for Layton to stand behind.
10/06/04 MJL
Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
I'm going to go against the grain here, and actually predict a Liberal win in Edmonton-Strathcona at this point. Why? A number of reasons.
-Firstly, I think with the bad press he's just gotten, a lot of people will be reluctant to vote for Azania. Its not every day that an Alberta NDP'er makes front or second page coverage. When that coverage is about anti-semitic remarks made, this worsens things.
-Secondly, the Liberals, while collapsing in Ontario, are actually holding their own in other places - in Alberta in particular.
*SES has the Liberals at 33%, the CPC at 51%
*Leger has the Liberals at 28%, the CPC at 54%
*Ipsos-Reid has the Liberals at 27%, the CPC at 50%
Taking the average of the three, we have the Libs at 29.3 (up 8.4%), and the Conservatives at 51.7 (down 6.8%). This alone is enough for the Liberals to win in Edmonton-Strathcona, if you make reasonable projections about how those numbers are gotten (some Alliance supporters will stay home, some PC'ers are moving to the LPC).
-However, there are other factors at play. The Liberal rise is likely concentrated in Edmonton, one of the few places ideologically close enough to the LPC. Secondly, with the recent strong endorsement of Anne Mclellan by a number of provincial Conservatives, "Redmonton" may be the site of a rare Liberal rally. Thirdly, and finally, with the Conservatives peaking, the hot lights of the media, complete with criticism will be on them, as they are now a prospective government.
-As well, Paul Martin will be sure to hit Edmonton as a campaign stop, since the loss of Anne Mclellan would be disastrous for him. It would mean potentially signing up a Liberal senator (if he won government), and losing a valuable Martinite (incidentally, because Martin is a right wing Liberal, most Martinites are from right-leaning ridings, threatened by the Conservatives - Martin will need all the friends he can get to stay alive after this election, government or not - winning seats in Alberta, and BC would be very good for this objective).
Local matters may play out differently, but from a national, provincial, and even Edmontonian perspective, Rahim Jaffer is, at the least, in for a tough fight. That said, he is a fairly competent and charismatic politician, and may prevail (the Conservatives would be loath to lose a young ethnic candidate who so successfully refutes the stereotypes of their party - incidentally the CPC is running more visible minorities than the other parties).
09/06/04 Chris S.
Email: csamuel@ualberta.ca
Uh-oh...looks like a skeleton from the past could get Malcolm in trouble. It'll be interesting to see how much, if any, support he loses from this 1994 Internet Scandal. Even more interesting will be to see where that support goes. I think a surprising amount is going to go to Rahim, since Malcolm and he are both fairly similar candidates to the uninformed voter (colored, young, well-spoken, non-Liberal males). On the other hand, a major hit to the Malcolm campaign can give a big boost to Debbie, who performed quite well at Cross-Country Checkup. We'll have to see how this all plays out.
09/06/04 John
Email: [hidden]
The NDP are out of this race now due to 10 year old comments by aZANIa surfacing:
"What's clear is that a great many of them are (in aggregate terms of their actions) Whitesupremacists... For us to exonerate (Jews) as a group because they have been persecuted by their fellow Whites seems to me short-sighted. Worse still, I think many of them use their exploitation/slaughter by other Whites to make us believe they understand us and sympathize with us better than do other Whites."
aZANIa's apologies when this surfaced will be accepted in the riding, but any chance of carving into the anti-Liberal vote is gone. This will help Carlson retain some votes. But with Ontario swinging Conservative, Edmonton Stratchona and Edmonton East are now out of play. The battleground in Edmonton is now in the 2 Liberal seats.
08/06/04 swankyspoon
Email: [hidden]
I think MF's prediction of the NDP going nowhere in this riding or anywhere else in Alberta is incorrect. NDP polled 5% last election in Alberta but were at nearly 15% here and in Edmonton East. This time they polling over 10% in Alberta -- so I think its safe to say the NDP could do well in this riding and in Edmonton East. This one could be closer than most people think.
08/06/04 Full Name
Email: [hidden]
This was the riding profiled on the June 6 edition of CBC Radio's Cross-Country Checkup show. All of the candidates are articulate and this should be a healthy three-way race, but the riding will stay with Rahim Jaffer.
Jaffer wins the lawn sign contest in established homes in this neighborhood (as opposed to the homes of the transient university student population). There seems to be a prevailing feeling in the riding of forgiveness for the radio gaffe. Jaffer freely admits his mistake and tells people that if they can't accept the apology, vote for someone else.
Carlson will put up a competitive fight. She comes across to many around here as a likeable individual who is genuinely concerned about protecting universal health care. However, the sense is that she cannot and would not hold any influence against the central Martin PMO machinery. And she is unable to talk away the sponsorship scandal.
Azania may attract a significant youth vote. He is a well-known voice on campus radio and an English teacher at one of Edmonton's largest high schools. He has years of experience as an activist. To anyone over 25 years old, though, he comes across as too demonstrably ideological and not "folksy-community-nice-guy-ish" enough. Lefty votes will be split between him and Carlson.
Jaffer may lose some votes due to his past radio mistake and if a get-out-the-youth-vote actually works. But he still has this riding.
07/06/04 DS
Email: [hidden]
I think this will be a lot closer than smug Albertan Conservatives think it will be. Malcolm Azania has to be one of the most well spoken candidates I have ever seen, in any riding.
He just picked himself up a chunk of votes with a very strong performance on Cross Country Check-up. He will undoubtebly pick-up countless votes by getting out in his community and canvassing aggresively.
It will be close, but Azania, with a good bit of momentum will pick-up this riding for the NDP.
07/06/04 Support the Sinister Minister
Email: [hidden]
Did you stop to think that maybe all these NDP nutjobs live in Edmonton-Strathcona? I hope so anyway. The Sinister Minister Faust aka Malcolm Azania has an excellent shot at taking this riding. Jaffer is a war supporting MP with a fragile base especially after the Radio debacle, Debby Carlson (to the best of my knowledge) also has dirty skeletons in her closet, or perhaps someone would care to enlighten us as to why she changed riding.
The educator, the anti-war activist, with the cleanest closet of the lot, will win this race.
06/06/04 C. Hubley
Email: [hidden]
I call this for Rahim Jaffer. Several reasons:
1. in the Cross Country Checkup all-candidates' meeting just broadcast today (June 6), Jaffer was very strong,
2. also strong in that debate were the NDP and the Green Cameron Wakefield. Without an exceptional Liberal and BOTH a weak NDP and a weak Green, it's hard to imagine a seat turning Liberal even in urban Alberta this time around. Jaffer has the benefit of a three-way vote split to his (perceived) left (I say 'perceived' since Green policies on taxes are actually quite a bit more conservative than the CPC, almost libertarian especially when considering the 'legalize and tax' stance on marijuana)
3. If the concern with Harper is his scary constituents, then, it's hard to argue that Jaffer, a young person of colour, shouldn't be in the caucus to moderate them, if they're going to be the government - Red Tories can vote for Jaffer even if they don't dare support any other CPC in Alberta.
4. Jaffer is the incumbent.
5. Jaffer actually has some good ideas and when he "freelances" on policy, he doesn't get himself in the kind of trouble that other Conservatives do.
06/06/04 GC
Email: [hidden]
Strathcona is a very diverse riding. Provincially, it's a combination of NDP and PC. Federally, I think that it's going to be a tough call but Malcolm, widely known and liked, has a good chance.
05/06/04 MJL
Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
MF, you seem to be blind in your rejection of the NDP's chances in the riding (or Edmonton East) - consider, for one thing, that this is one of the few ridings in Alberta in which they have a chance - this means a concentration of resources.
Secondly, you evidently haven't looked at the polls much - whereas the NDP polled very dismally in Alberta, with only 5% of the vote, they have consistently been in the 10-15% range in the province. I'll make a "crazy" assumption here, and assume Crowfoot hasn't warmed to the dippers. Calgary and, in particular, Edmonton, are the exclusive beneficiaries of the jump in NDP support in Alberta.
Thirdly, the CPC is polling consistently worse (49-55% vs. 59%) than in 2000, while the Liberals are also up in the polls. Rahim Jaffer, while initially given a good deal of press-time, has had little, after the much publicized radio stunt.
So lets take the 2000 results, and apply the latest Ipsos poll numbers to them - assuming (as is not the case) that all provincial number changes are universal.
CPC: 41.1%
LPC: 38.8%
NDP: 24%
This riding is far from a walk for the Conservatives, or Mr. Jaffer, at least insofar as polls and common sense dictate.
04/06/04 Dan
Email: danlamden@hotmail.com
NDP candidate was standing with supporters beside a busy intersection, barely anyone honked. So even though this riding contains one of 2 provincial NDP politicians, I dont expect the NDP candidate will be able to get anymore than last time around. Its too bad because he's by far the most respectable of the top 3. Its seems NDP always its great candidates in the no-chance ridings... Prob Jaffer will get again... who really cares though.
04/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
If Rahim Jaffer didn't lose in 2000 I don't think he is in much danger this time around. I say Mr.Jaffer wins with 45% of the vote.
01/06/04 MF
Email: lauriersig2000@yahoo.com
The NDP??? Are you kidding me? I don't know where all of these NDP nutjobs are coming from, but here's a wake-up call. The NDP will not win *any* seats in Alberta. The NDP will not even receive more than 20% of the votes in *any* Alberta riding. As for the Liberals, all of the Liberal enegery will be devoted to saving David Kilgour's riding (which they will probably be able to pull off) - the Liberals themselves had so little confidence in Debby Carlson that they only let her have the nomination after everbody else in Edmonton (the mayor, the police chief, etc. etc. turned them down! Jaffer wins this by a 10% margin or more over the Liberal's unwanted candidate.
28/05/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
The NDP candidate looks fantastic!
This is one of the few Alberta ridings that the NDP will be putting a lot of resources into. This means that either a close three way race will produce an NDP win, or Malcom Azania will steal votes from the Liberal candidate producing an easy win for the Conservative incumbent.
25/05/04 T.B.
Email: [hidden]
It's worth noting that both the provincial Liberal and NDP leaders come from this riding. (Kevin Taft in Edmonton-Riverview and Raj Pannu in Edmonton-Strathcona) This would suggest that the Conservatives would be in trouble here, but to me, it emphasizes how the left-leaning votes will be split in this riding, leaving room for Rahim Jaffer to come up the middle...again
25/05/04 DSY
Email: [hidden]
Debbie Carlson does have a track record. She has been twice Alberta Liberal Party Deputy Leader. Rahim Jaffer is not forgotten for his Warren on the Weekend gaff.
24/05/04 RetroRyan
I'm predicting this will once again be won by the Conservative candidate Rahim Jaffer, due to vote-splitting on the left. This is the strongest NDP voting area in Alberta, and they will do marginally better than they did in 2000 according to the polls. This means taking some votes away from the Liberal candidate. Also, keep in mind that part of this riding is provincially represented by Dr. Raj Pannu, the Alberta NDP leader. Also, the 10% spread from 2000 is too great for the Liberals to overcome the Conservatives, even if all the former PC voters went Liberal. Finally, Rahim Jaffer is a good fit for this riding as a bilingual ethnic minority candidate representing the University of Alberta.
24/05/04 Chris Young
Email: cyoung@ualberta.ca
Debbie Carlson will make this a tough fight, but I strongly believe Rahim will hold this riding. Not only is he a key part of the Tory caucus, but Rahim Jaffer's personal charisma is unquestionable. As for the NDP candidate, I'm not sure where all this hype is coming from. I have not met him personally, but his short-lived appearance on Political Animal made him appear to be a nutcase.
19/05/04 Hatrock
Email: [hidden]
When will the NDP quit voting strategically and vote NDP instead of Liberal? With the PCs and Alliance now united, the vote split will most certainly be on the left with a strong NDP candidate. Despite the radio gaff, when you go to townhall meetings, Rahim is a well respected MP by even NDP supporters. He relates very well to the constituents and is popular. Conservatives will win by about 3000, NDP second, and Liberals third.
/05/04 Yukon Pundit
Email: [hidden]
Jaffer may be a goober but he's still fairly popular and so is Harper (which may allow many in this riding who don't like Jaffer to hold their nose and vote Tory). If the NDP candidate is half as good as the pro-dippers say in earlier posting's then that means it's going to be very hard for Carlson to unseat Jaffer running under the banner of a party that is still quite unpopular in Alberta (compared to other parts of Canada).
13/05/04 dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
I was not able to see a full breakdown of the latest Ipsos Reid...the "detailed" tables on the webpage were only national...and the discussion of the poll revealed some regional/provincial trends but not all. The poll suggested that the Liberals had dropped to 21% in Alberta...down about 11% from the previous polls, but didn't show what the Conservative vote now was...my guess is that it would suggest them jumping to around 60%. If so, that would imperil the two Liberal seats and foreclose them gaining other seats in Edmonton or elsewhere.
However, one poll should be taken with a grain of salt and I have freely disputed regional subsamples elsewhere that have inherantly large margins of error and that 20th poll of 20 (unlike the "19 times of 20" that polls are regarded as accurate) can sometimes just produce a wrong result...
My feel is that 30% is pretty high for the Liberals in Alberta...but 21% is a tad low...For them to be near 30%, they would have to attract a large number of former 2000 PC voters...plausible but not likely since most PC members seem to have swung to the new Conservative party. In Edmonton Stratcona...the PC vote in 2000 was tiny...just a couple of percent and no one is going to close the gap with their votes, even if they unanimously swing to the Liberals or NDP or whoever. All in all, I think the riding will stay Conservative.
08/05/04 psephologist
Polls do not show the Conservatives at 60% in Alberta. The latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows them in the 50% range, and this is consistent with other polls. The Canadian Alliance polled 58% in the last election, so this means a considerable drop in Tory support. And the party that is gaining in Alberta is the NDP, generally up 10% from the last election. We can assume that most of this gain is in the cities.
If these trends hold, some CPC incumbents will lose in Edmonton. The margin here was small enough in 2000 for Rahim to be vulnerable. This would normally be a Liberal pickup, but the NDP got enough votes here last time to be able to make it a three way race, particularly if their candidate is energetic and the Liberal candidate is lackluster. Genuinely too close to call.
06/05/04 MC
If the Liberals ever have a chance at this riding it will come with Carlson. NDP voters should remember the Jaffer radio stunt and vote strategically for the Liberals.
28/04/04 Pink
Email: [hidden]
I hate to say it, but Rahim should squeek back in. Polls show the Conservatives in the 60% range in Alberta. NDP are up somewhat in Alberta (in the 15% range, about double what they got in Ab in the last election) which means Malcom Azania should improve his party's showing in this riding (from 15% to 20-25% range) most of which will come from the Liberals. No way Carlson can take this one.
26/04/04 W. McBeath
Edmonton-Strathcona has been Canadian Alliance for the past two elections, and will continue on as a Conservative seat through this election. Local Conservative Member of Parliament Rahim Jaffer is a moderate and vocal representative for the region, and remains very popular within the riding.
The Liberal Opponent, Ms. Carlson, is one of the highly unpopular and unspectacular provincial Liberal MLA caucus who have completely failed to provide an opposition to the Alberta PC's. Additionly, in listening to her speak at several events, Ms. Carlson is attempting to run as an opposition candidate to Rahim Jaffer, instead of as someone representing the governing Liberal party. Someone should tell Ms. Carlson that if she wins, she could be in government - she needs to present solutions, not just complain about problems.
The NDP candidate in this riding, Mr. Azania, is a well-spoken candidate who will likely draw votes away from Ms. Carlson and the Liberals. However, his extreme views on a number of issues ranging from wealth redistribution, the environment, and other issues puts him at odds with majority Albertan opinion. We will see a strong showing from this canddiate, perhaps exceeding that of Ms. Carlson, but he will not be able to break away enough support from Rahim Jaffer to ensure victory. This seat will remain Conservative.
26/04/04 RP.
Email: [hidden]
NDP at 12% (Ipsos-Reid) to 14% (Environics) in April. Should win somewhere in Alberta. It will be here if anywhere.
14/04/04 Doozer
Email: [hidden]
You heard it here first...
Malcolm Azania is an excellent candidate, and should be able to take this riding. The NDP is way up in Alberta: 5% in 2000 vs. recent polls in the 12-16% range, and most of that growth is likely in Edmonton.
Sure, it'll be very close... but believe it or not, the NDP will get a seat in Alberta.
I wouldn't be surprised if Jaffer finishes third.
13/04/04 J.S. Ryu
Debby Carlson has been receiving a long of support from local businesses and residents. I don't think we should give Rahim Jaffer a free ride to Parliament Hill. Debby is a well-known name in her community and I think she will be a formidable force in the upcoming election. Malcolm Azania will be getting a lot of support from younger voters, but his extreme views will not attract any other attention.
13/04/04 Steve Raynor
Email: hockey90210@yahoo.ca
Debby Carlson is the superior candidate in every way. She is a high profile MLA and has high integrity. She will likely be in Cabinet if elected.
Rahim is a typical Alberta Conservative, he lacks experience and is young. He brings nothing to Parliament that is useful to Canadians. Rahim has the fake radio interview as a millstone around his neck. He has a serious lack of integrity.
12/04/04 Cory Willis
Email: cory.willis@shaw.ca
Conservative Hold. This riding has gone (sometimes narrowly) to the right-wing party in the last 9 elections, and is unlikely to change now. I agree with BAS: the new riding voters backed Kilgour, not the Liberals.
Incumbent: Rahim Jaffer is a two-term MP with a lot of national media attention, and is assured senior party positions. He served his penance for the radio show mistake -- that was 3 1/2 years ago and will have little traction in 2004.
Opposition: Liberal Debby Carlson (unimpressive MLA with the moribund provincial Liberals) is a better candidate than Jonathan Dai, who polled suprisingly well in 2000, but her nomination was a mess (Carlson beat Dai by just five votes and had to go through an appeal) and the organization doesn't seem to be there right now. Malcolm Azania should be better than 2000's NDPer, but campus will be deserted in late May, and any stolen votes will probably be from Carlson's column.
05/04/04 W.I.
Email: [hidden]
This is an interesting riding. Provincially it elects Liberals (AB Liberal Leader Kevin Taft and MLA Hugh MacDonald) and NDs (ND Leader Raj Pannu), but Federally it elects Reform/Alliance/Conservative. I think it must be an opposition thing.
Rahim Jaffer has been a pretty respectable MP (aside from the radio show incident) and is fairly high profile in the community. I would expect that the strong Liberal Candidate (MLA Debby Carlson) and strong ND Candidate (Malcolm Azania) will split the left wing vote which will allow Mr. Jaffer run up the middle.
02/04/04 B.A.S.
Email: [hidden]
This riding definitely goes conservative. Combining the results from the previous riding boundaries is a little misleading in this case. David Kilgour got a lot of votes as an MP, they definitely weren't votes for the Liberal Party.
Rahim is a young, experienced MP who has done well by his constituents. Sure the radio stunt was juvenile, but it was a long time ago.
This riding is solidly Conservative.
31/03/04 MOB
Email: [hidden]
I am currently attending the UofA and so live in this riding. No one even remembers the whole radio stunt that was pulled off. And for those who do remember it, I doubt they view it as a negative experience. Indeed, it was rather funny. In any event it was harmless - it doesn't even compare to the Liberals multi-million dollar theft. Tory hold.
27/03/04 Jer
Email: jer@jerscape.ca
Malcom Azania? Did anybody watch political animal? He was paired up with Line Maheux as his campaign manager and refused to find any common ground with her despite her overt efforts. He pulled a little snit and quit the show, unfortanely if you do that in politics, people tend not to put up with it. From his performance it is clear that this man's critical faculties are so ideologically poisoned that he could never win enough Liberal or Conservative voters (yes he would need a few tories to) to ever have a realistic chance at being elected to office. Rahim will get this one.
26/03/04 Cod Father
Email: [hidden]
I don't know how you guys can call this a squeeker. Jaffer has this one. A muslim businessman who is a Conservative. It's his.
26/03/04 mini phreek
Email: [hidden]
Way to close to call, but i think if the Conservatives don't win this one the NDP will. after the sponsorship scandle, i don't think the liberals have a chance here.
25/03/04 Blake Robert
Email: [hidden]
Jaffer's got it in the bag. He's a rising star in Ottawa who has the respect and support of his Leader, not to mention he has done an excellent job serving the constituents of Edmonton Strathcona. Combine this with a rather inept and flaky Liberal candidate in Debby Carlson who, as an MLA, was the most frequent user of the phrase "ummm... yeah" in the Legislature. Jaffer's superior knowledge of the issues, bilingualism, and party affiliation will ensure he wins a third term as MP for Edmonton Strathcona.
25/03/04 Jesse Hoffman
Email: [hidden]
I think this riding will stay Conservative, if the current poll results in Alberta are accurate. I expect the NDP to make a very strong showing in Edmonton East, taking away a lot of potantial Liberal votes. That will be what tilts the scale in the Conservatives favour.
20/03/04 GV
Edmonton residents remember the whole game Jaffer played with the radio call in show. Expect the high-profile Liberal here to pick up this seat.
20/03/04 red tory
Email: [hidden]
This race has the potential to be the second closest in Alberta after Edmonton Centre, where Anne McLellan or Laurie Hawn will be hard pressed to win by more than a few dozen votes. It will also be probably the province's only 3-way race. Strathcona is the best riding in Alberta for the NDP. They have the potential to poll 30% in this riding and if they do it will be a wild night. Their candidate Malcolm Azania is up against Alliance posterboy Jaffer and a Liberal MLA.
19/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We're also going to say this is staying Conservative (but again a very close race). Jaffer, though high profile, never has had the solid support like other former CA MPs in Alberta. This makes him vulnerable to a strong Liberal candidate. However he does have the benefit of being the incumbant. As well a surge in NDP support will bleed votes from a Liberal candidate who would already be hurting by the current scandals and in-fighting. We find it hard to forsee many Liberal seat gains, especially in Alberta.
17/03/04 N.C.
Email: nairn@canada.com
Watch the NDP's Malcolm Azania here, a very good, charismatic, hard-working, locally-known candidate. It's too early to call a result, but with Jaffer unable to make the seat solidly safe for the CA, the seat would appear to be split into three sizeable camps. Early prediction - a tight three-way contest.
17/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
The NDP's strongest riding in alberta, coupled with a bad Liberal fight for the nomination means the opposition is divided. The conservatives will drive up the middle, and win.

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