Pickering-Uxbridge

	BETHLENFALVY, PETER
	CARI?O, NERISSA
	DANIYAL, IBRAHIM
	DUBOISKY, NETALIA
	FRANCIS, MICHELLE
	MYERS, WILLIAM
	NARRAWAY, ADAM
	REILLY, BRENDAN
	SIVADAS, ERIC

Incumbent(s):

	Pickering-Scarborough East    Hon Tracy MacCharles    (55.88% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Ajax-Pickering    Joe Dickson    (25.26% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Durham    Granville Anderson    (18.86% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			109344
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		21425	47.17%
		14815	32.62%
		6742	14.84%
		1921	4.23%
	OTHERS	515	1.13%
	Total Transposed	45418
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Pickering-Scarborough East
		12697
		7497
		3694
		1070
	Others	363
	Total Transposed	25321
	Ajax-Pickering
		5426
		3526
		1730
		415
	Others	87
	Total Transposed	11183
	Durham
		3302
		3792
		1318
		437
	Others	65
	Total Transposed	8915
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Jennifer O'Connell
		29757	50.30%
		Corneliu Chisu **
		22591	38.20%
		Pamela Downward
		5446	9.20%
		Anthony Jordan Navarro
		1365	2.30%

	04/06/2018	Election Watcher 99.231.160.137
This is an interesting one to watch. I predict a Conservative win, but it may not be by the numbers some think. It has been Liberal for some time, but the Federal and provincial riding numbers have to be thrown away based, on the Liberal performance and the disdain that is being shown for the provincial record. Wynne conceding throws a twist into things for sure. Will the votes, go to the NDP, will they stay home, and how many may go the Conservative way? Conservatives need to make sure they get the vote out, and it doesn't stay home thinking it's already won here. I think they will do that.
	02/06/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
Very little attention has been given to this seat, however the prediction models are showing that the NDP are only behind the PC by 6 points here. The liberals have about 25% support before Wynne suggesting she has already lost the premiership. Of that 25% support, a good chunk may now swing NDP. There is no Liberal incumbent, so no save-the-furniture effort is going to be made here. Ajax will be the focus east of Toronto.
	22/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
No MacCharles, and the riding's swapped the Liberal stronghold of easternmost Scarborough for the Conservative stronghold of Uxbridge--but even so, we're talking about a seat which still managed a 12 point Liberal margin federally, as opposed to the single-digit squeakers of York Region. That is, if the Wynne Libs somehow whittle the Tories down to a 1985-esque weak minority position, this is still on retention radar--yes, there's no incumbent running, as opposed to old Joe Dickson next door in Ajax; but the PC candidate doesn't have Rod Phillips' profile, either (or even that of predecessor candidate Kevin Gaudet). No, it doesn't mean the mouth of the Rouge is absolutely destined to stay politically 'rouge'--but it still might be more 'violet' than 'bleu'...
	05/04/2018	RD 38.99.161.190
From the Toronto Star: 'Two GTA Liberal cabinet ministers and an Eastern Ontario MPP have announced they will not run for re-election in June. 'International Trade Minister Michael Chan, 66, who represents Markham, and Government and Consumer Affairs Minister Tracy MacCharles, 54, the Pickering-Scarborough East MPP, are retiring. 'Joining them is Liberal MPP Grant Crack, 55, who has represented Glengarry-Prescott-Russell since 2011.' https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/04/05/liberal-cabinet-ministers-michael-chan-and-tracy-maccharles-mpp-grant-crack-say-they-are-retiring.html
	26/03/2018	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.95
If the Liberals, with an incumbent, have not named a candidate by now, then this riding is going to slip through their fingers. I will reassess in the months to come, but right now it looks bad for them.
	05/01/2018	in the know 208.124.203.242
the lack of a Liberal candidate in a riding held by a Liberal cabinet minister is telling....No one wants to run for them......Tory big win is my prediction.....PC candidate appears everywhere for the last year.
	18/12/2017	Dr. Bear 75.119.248.107
A call for the PCs? No, I can't get behind that. This may be a new riding but in 2014, the contributing ridings each gave the Liberals over 50%. And while it's true that Tracy MacCharles has not yet been selected as Liberal candidate (it's unclear if she is even running), there is bound to be significant residual Liberal support. Also, Wynne and co. may be way down in the polls now, but don't discount them out six months before the vote. I suspect that once the campaign begins, the polls will tighten. Too close to call.
	15/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Leans PC at the moment but could go either way. The Liberals tend to do well in the southern parts that are more suburban whereas the northern parts which are more rural (albeit with fewer people) tend to go heavily PC. If the PCs can run up the margins in the rural portions (which they likely will) and keep it close or narrowly win the suburban parts they should take this. But if the Liberals win the suburban parts by a decent margin that should be enough to cancel out the PC margins in the rural parts.