Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Pickering-Scarborough East


Prediction Changed
2013-04-14 20:49:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Gaudet, Kevin

Higdon, Eileen

Hoefig, Scott

MacCharles, Tracy

Navarro, Anthony

Incumbent:
Tracy MacCharles

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Pickering-Scarborough East)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    TRACY MACCHARLES
    1820146.66%
    KEVIN GAUDET
    1303333.41%
    NERISSA CARIÑO
    642416.47%
    KEVIN SMITH
    10962.81%
    HEATH THOMAS
    2520.65%
    2007 Result:
    * WAYNE ARTHURS
    19,76248.63%
    DIANA HALL
    12,88431.70%
    ANDREA MOFFAT
    4,56311.23%
    ANITA LALCHAN
    2,5726.33%
    JOSH INSANG
    3750.92%
    JOHN NEWELL
    2750.68%
    MITCHELL ANDREW PERSAUD
    2100.52%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1999949.30%
    1567938.65%
    348908.60%


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    14 06 09 A.S.
    99.231.139.81
    Janus, The Constituency--a different kind of awkward riding draw from Oak Ridges-Markham--but the half-416 factor's looking like an assurance of Liberal victory; and it helps that cabinet has rendered MacCharles a higher-profile caucus rep than Wayne Arthurs ever was. Meanwhile, esp. now that it's no longer an open seat, the rematch w/Gaudet has a 'sloppy seconds' flavour about it--something that more or less bears itself out in the Forum poll.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    99.231.139.81
    Pickering-Scarborough East (polled Sunday, 602 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Liberal Tracy MacCharles 49 per cent, Progressive Conservative Kevin Gaudet 35 per cent, New Democrat Eileen Higbon 11 per cent, Green Anthony Navarro 4 per cent.
    14 05 18 Jeff316
    69.196.138.207
    MacCharles is one of the few bright spots of the Liberals past three years in power and she'll likely keep this in the Liberal fold. She'd be a huge loss to a team that has little strength, energy, or new ideas. Should the Liberals stay in government, look for her to be one of the leading ministers in a new Cabinet.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This one is half 416 and half 905. The NDP may be competitive in Scarborough but most are progressives who want to keep the PCs out so they will go Liberal. The 905 side could go either way, but the Liberal strength on the 416 side will be enough to ensure this stays in the Liberal column even if they lose the 905 side.
    13 04 10
    70.30.132.201
    In 2011, complete political unknown Tracy MacCharles took this riding by storm with a landslide victory over Conservative ‘star’ ‘candidate’ Kevin Gaudet. Less than two years later, MacCharles is no longer an unknown; she's quickly become a fixture both in the community and the legislature, and earned a cabinet position as Minister of Consumer Services. With her increasing public profile and her opponent remaining a poor fit for the riding, there's no reason to think she won't hold the seat for terms to come.
    13 04 10 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    A unique riding, part 905, part 416, a great MPP, who's been promoted to cabinet and has the chance to become the shining star of the Wynne government. The PC's will probably do well in Pickering, but there's enough Scarborough in this riding to keep it Liberal.



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