Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Delis, Andrew

Dickson, Joe

McCarthy, Todd

Toman, Steven

Wiseman, Evan

Joe Dickson


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 Double J
    The Tories needed Ajax Pickering to turn into a three way race in order to split the vote and hand them the riding. The local NDP candidate, Evan Wiseman has been missing in action for most of the campaign. The NDP have little presence in the riding to speak of. So it looks like there won't be a three way race which gives the advantage to incumbent Joe Dickson who should beat Tory candidate Todd McCarthy by at least 1500 votes.
    11 10 04 Politics is interesting
    It is interesting that this riding is back in the ‘ to close to call’ file.
    Take a look at the lawn signs. Must be 10 to 1 for McCarthy. PC's have not run a sterling campaign in the Province but it is surely been well enough to take this riding from the grits. McCarthy has run an energetic Campaign and it would appear that he and his team have visited most homes in the riding with very positive results. Dickson has hardly knocked at any doors. Think this needs to go back into the Tory fold..
    11 10 04 AD
    A close riding but I feel the polls are showing the LPO up and this should be a hold for the incumbant. I don't see much substantial evidence to the contrary.
    11 10 01 A.S.
    A lot of people anticipated more here from the PCs in '07, simply because they were ahead in the notional '03 figure for Ajax-Pickering--however, that figure was skewed by two strong Tory incumbents (Flaherty, Ecker). Here, we were dealing with a new and open seat, which Dickson cinched by quasi-inner-905 autopilot. Because it was autopilot and because Dickson's anything but a fresh face, I agree on his vulnerability, more so than his previous 15-point gap indicates--but also on Hudak's so-so campaign potentially handing Dickson a victory from the jaws of defeat (darn it, the PCs must be saying)
    11 09 24 Ms from Durham
    If Hudak still had a lead in the polls, this riding might be vulnerable, but with Hudak's numbers stalled and even with the Lib's at best, I see Dickson winning a fairly close one.
    11 09 22 Paul B
    While Dickson has done some great charity work over the years, his record as an MPP is less than inspiring. As mentioned already Joe talked more about himself than the actual concerns of voters in the riding. Many Ajax-Pickering residents won't forget McGuinty tried to shut down our emergency room and have us drive to Scarborough, only changing his mind after much backlash from residents.
    11 09 22 Politics is interesting
    Debate night tonight and about 150 people attended. Not a bad showing considering the weather. The candidate for the Liberterian Party was a traditional no show. The Green and NDP party standard bearers are young and reasonably articulate men who put forth parts of their parties platform but appeared fairly tentative in their remarks and did a lot of reading and stumbling over their prepared notes. They will do much better when they get more seasoning and practice.
    The Liberal candidate ‘good old Joe’ ran true to form. Telling us stories stretching from the 50's until today and most of what was said has been related time and time again in the past. Spent a lot of time reading list of ‘accomplishments’ I guess you could call them, and they really had nothing to do with what this election is currently about -taxes, health care, education and the economy. Almost nothing about where the Liberals want to take us in the next four years.
    The PC candidate (Todd) ran the crowd through why he was running for public office, what he hoped to accomplish while keeping true to the party's platform as outlined in the ‘Changebook’ Did not appear to be reading from notes and was clear, articulate and passionate in his delivery. He clearly was the crowd favorate, with the NDP and Green party candidates a toss up for second place. Our dear Joe ran a poor 4th.
    Looks for a change on October 06.
    11 09 13 Panther
    This will be close race, but PC Todd McCarthy will win by a squeaker or a larger margin if the PCs win government. I used to think Joe Dickson will win by just showing up, but I don't think that's the case anymore. There are many new neighbourhoods and new residents who don't know who Joe is. McCarthy is young, likeable, and hard working, and people here want at change and want an MPP who will do something for the Riding. People said Mark Holland would never lose. Where is he now?
    11 09 07 johnspink@sympatico.ca
    11 08 01 Not Non-Partisan
    Todd McCarthy will win easily here. Ask that Holland guy. Whether you like the Flahertys or not you have to respect the machine they've created in Durham.
    11 07 12 R.O.
    Not going to be as high profile of a race when compared to recent federal one. Joe Dickson is one of a number of backbench liberal mpp's not well known outside of their riding and new tory candidate not as high profile either. but the suburban riding is likely a pc target and an area they used to hold when they were in power in the late 90's. i would expect this area to vote for Tim Hudak if his numbers remain at this level by election day but liberals and anti tory unions likely to fight to bitter end so its tough to say what happen here
    11 03 06 George
    In 2007, Dickson made short work of a popular and very capable opponent, Kevin Ashe, who has himself served many terms in public office. This time, the Tories haven't been able to attract as strong a candidate - they're running Todd McCarthy, an unknown and unimpressive lackey of Jim Flaherty's. McCarthy has a good resume, but if anyone outside of his immediate family (by whom I mean Jim and Christine) can pick him out of a lineup, I'd be surprised. The Flahertys already hold a seat in Ottawa and one at Queen's Park - this attempt to gain a third is not going to fly with the people of Ajax-Pickering, who like strong and independent representation. The conventional wisdom is that 2011 will be an uphill climb for the Ontario Liberals, but looking at how many seats in which the Liberals are running entrenched public servants like Joe Dickson and the Conservatives are running unknown party hacks like Todd McCarthy, McGuinty should be able to hold on.

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