Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-06-04 13:02:00

Constituency Profile










   Hon Jeff Leal

   (93.59% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
   Laurie Scott

   (6.41% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):115269

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

24413 45.71%
16407 30.72%
9666 18.10%
2292 4.29%
OTHERS 635 1.19%
Total Transposed 53414

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed48407

     Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Total Transposed5007

Federal Election Result (2015):

Maryam Monsef
Michael Skinner
Dave Nickle
Doug Mason
Toban Leckie


02/06/2018 TS
Not sure why this is TCTC. This is a clear PC pickup. It was consistently Conservative under the Harper Government from 2006 to 2015. The NDP are not as strong in Central/Eastern Ontario as they are elsewhere in the province so there's no reason to suspect that they will break 35% in this riding. In 2014, the NDP vote share was about 5% lower than provincially. If the NDP is polling around 35%, the NDP should get around 30% while the PCs comfortably win with a vote share just under 40%.
02/06/2018 Dr. Bear
I have to agree with Fake A.S. below, Peterborough will go NDP. The numbers all suggest an NDP pick up, and with Wynne's announcement today of her not being premier, I think some would be Liberal voters will swing NDP. The PCs will need to regain significant strength in the polls to win this seat.
02/06/2018 Mike
Clearly this is no longer too close to call.
With Dave Smith's record of public service and the campaign he has run, it is no doubt he will come out a head injury this race.
31/05/2018 A.S.
While numbers are not especially robust in Eastern Ontario for the ONDP, they have retained their surge province-wide, and most data indicates they will win the popular vote June 7. Moreover, it's important to remember that lofty PCPO numbers in Eastern Ontario are driven by rural strength. There are ~80 000 people in the City of Peterborough, making most of the riding nearly as urban as Kingston and the Islands. I predict that Ian Arthur (Kingston and the Islands) and Sean Conway (Peterborough-Kawartha) will anchor the Eastern Ontario caucus for the ONDP, with two Ottawa area New Democrats joining them in the event of a total Liberal collapse. ONDP Pickup.
25/05/2018 Cameron Berry
I don't believe that the bellwether status of this riding will apply this time. A strong incumbent and weak NDP candidate will split voters differently than other ridings. While I believe the PC candidate will win here, I think the NDP will take Ontario.
25/05/2018 Bza
This riding and perhaps Huron-Bruce are the bell weather ridings that could potentially flip to the NDP if the party wins a majority government. Definitely a good call to keep this TCTC until the final days.
There is enough of an urban centre in Peterborough that could make this an NDP seat.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
The PC call is premature. Leal has enough personal appeal to hold some 'embarrassed liberal' support. The NDP surge, while tepid in eastern Ontario at the moment, will swell support if it becomes substantiated. The PCs have solid support and are absolute contenders. While if I were compelled to make a decision, I'd say the PC will get it, the race is quite dynamic at the moment and the PC are bleeding support now.
19/05/2018 C. H.
There is no major reason for the Peterborough area to lose its bellwether status this election. With the PCs and NDP both having reasonable chances of forming government, it's too early to call this one for either party. Leal also likely has an outside chance of keeping this seat if OLP support bounces back a little (to 25%ish) given how urban current OLP support appears to be.
18/05/2018 The Jackal
This is a belwheter riding and judging by the way things are going this will go blue with orange coming second.
18/05/2018 Mike London
With three weeks to go, yes, anything can happen. That said, I was in this riding for a few days this week, and it's clear. This is a PC win. Yes, local conservatives have reservations about Doug Ford, but it's the chance people will take. This will flip to the PC's.
10/05/2018 Peterborough Political Guy
The Bellweather tag will not apply this time. Jeff Leal will win this election. He has worked hard for the riding and is well respected. He has the best campaign team and the strongest ground game. His opponents are not known in the riding. Jeff will win by 2,000 votes.
09/05/2018 Christopher L
I agree with earlier posts - Peterborough looks set to remain a fairly reliable bellweather. It's hard to imagine Leal holding on in the face of a PC win province wide. Obviously the provincial race has a long way to go, but right now all signs point towards a PC victory at both the local and provincial level.
05/05/2018 A.S.
Bellwether talk tends to be hackneyed at the best of times; and re the other A.S.'s talk of 1990, not only was Peter Adams not yet a 'seasoned veteran' (being in his first and only term as MPP), but given that the ONDP held the seat in 1975-77 (not to mention the maiden byelection victory for the federal 'New Party' in 1960), Jenny Carter's 'seemingly impossible' recount victory was actually rather *underwhelming* given the Rae-landslide dynamics that year. In fact, there's often a pattern of electoral quirkiness beneath the surface, that of parties outperforming or underperforming--it's just that it always plays out in bellwether-esque terms for the victor, and 2018 might seem to be falling suit (or might as well be, given Jeff Leal's relative anachronism as an Central Ontario Heartland Liberal). Also keep in mind Maryam Monsef's federal cabinet disappointment, plus the fact that she won by less than 10 points despite her CPC predecessor having been hauled off to the hoosegow...
13/04/2018 RJC
Leal is a solid incumbent and a cabinet minister, but I think this one is going with whichever party wins the most seats. Right now, that looks like the PCs.
2018-04-1 Innocent bystander
In the best post-budget polls for the Liberals, there has been a 20 point swing to the Tories ... in the worst polls, it's over 30 points.
Leal is going to have to work very hard to defend that 15 point advantage.
06/04/2018 therealbatman
As the most reliable bellwether riding, expect this to go PC. Despite Leal's personal approval (which seems to be waning), he cannot buck the trend if the PC's win the most seats (which is almost certain). The PCs haven't been behind in a poll since December, and only twice in all of 2017. Wynne's personal unpopularity is going to drive the result.
04/04/2018 Tom
This riding will re-elect Jeff Leal. He has worked hard for the riding and is well respected. Nobody knows the Conservative and NDP candidates. Also people in the riding are afraid of what a Doug Ford government will do to Ontario.
27/03/2018 Demarcoa
While the PCs are most certainly gaining ground, I don't think it will be enough to overtake the lead LPO had during the last election.
20/03/2018 PTBO Pundit
Walter Matthau has had a lucky run, mindlessly riding the waves of the central party. Have a look at the polls. This riding has gone with the wind every election federally and provincially for about 20 years. There is zero possibility that Leal can buck the trend. This election is over before it begins. Rumors abound that Walter Matthau is already planning a run at mayor when this is over. Time to move it to the PC column.
19/03/2018 Innocent bystander
Note that NDP candidate Sean Conway is a 26-year-old musician, and definitely not TV pundit, and former Liberal MPP, Sean Conway.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Walter Matthau oops I mean Jeff Leal will be fine. He has always been a weaker member of caucus but if he hasn't lost yet he won't this time around. Wynne will do well in university towns.
24/01/2018 A. S.
The NDP have officially nominated musician, concert booker, and TV pundit Sean Conway. While I agree with other commentors on their assessment of the demographics of the riding, I do not agree with the narrative that this is a PC vs. OLP race. As everyone stated, P-K is a bellwether, and in 1990 a seemingly impossible task was accomplished provincially when Jenny Carter (NDP) defeated seasoned veteran MPP Peter Adams (OLP). The sentiment among many in the voter bases from which the NDP and Liberals find grassroots support is that Jeff Leal has overstayed his welcome as a public servant, especially in light of the deep unpopularity of the Premier.
No definite predictions here, but with robust party support for the PCs outside of Toronto, robust personal polling numbers for NDP leader Andrea Horwath across the province (including Central Ontario), and strong general favourability of Sean Conway, I don't see Leal stretching his political career into a fourth decade.
20/01/2018 Craig
The ultimate bellwether riding in Ontario, and possibly all of Canada. Peterborough is a microcosm of Ontario as a whole, with the riding about 3/4 urban (where the Liberals are strong and the NDP have a bit of a base, but not overwhelming) and 1/4 rural (and strongly Conservative). It also has a mixture of white and blue collar jobs, government, agriculture, tourism and academia.
In other words, it is impossible to predict this riding right now - and probably won't be able to predict it until late in the campaign. Most likely, the province-wide winner will win this seat. Incumbency doesn't seem to matter too much either, as this is politically very polarized.
17/01/2018 Stevo
Ontario's #1 bellwether.
Voted with the winning national party in all but 4 federal elections since its inception in 1953.
Voted with the winning provincial party in every provincial election going back to 1977(caveat : voted PC in 1985, the 'winners' in terms of largest party in the legislature, defeated post-election via Lib-NDP coalition).
Whichever party wins the most seats will win Peterborough in the process.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
This has generally been the most reliably bellwether riding so tough to say for sure whom will take this, but will almost certainly back whichever party wins the next election. If one party has a strong lead in the final week leading up to the election, then I think we can call it for that one, but too early at the moment although would probably go PC if an election were called today, nonetheless polls show some tightening suggesting the Liberals are not totally out of it here.

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