Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37

Constituency Profile


Abel, Don

Johnson, Rick

Olito, Charles

Payne, Anita

Scott, Laurie

Rick Johnson


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 18 A.S.
    Incumbentus interruptus; now, back to normal (though had Laurie Scott not been the PC candidate and John Tory remained the PC leader, Johnson would actually have a chance; he's ?Liberal-populist? enough). Re the ?three former and present MPPs? situation: last time for that was Philips-Brown-Frankford in Scarborough-Agincourt in '99 (and federally, Keddy-Earle-Wells in South Shore-St Margarets in '11)
    11 09 14 Joel Watts
    Just an update on a recent post of mine: the local paper ‘Kawartha Lakes This Week/Mykawartha.com’ recently revealed an unscientific poll of 372 people in the riding that showed that Laurie Scott had a strong lead of respondents with 55% support. Rick Johnson was next with 32% support, while Don Abel received 18% support. The real question is, with the PC voters sit at home (as in the by-election), or show their support for Ms. Scott.
    11 09 13 ptbo-student
    The incumbent vs. incumbent race has gotten slightly more interesting (perhaps just for trivia sake) with the NDP's Don Abel entering the race as he himself also has sat in the Ontario Legislature in the NDP government of the 90's... Thus a qualified roster indeed (the Green's fielded a drop-in candidate Anita Payne who does not live in the riding, but does have family here). I overheard a conversation at the PC-Laurie Scott Campaign office the other day from some local volunteers who stated that they'd been overwhelmed with the demand for signs on lawns, and have been running low on signs. The sign war so far however has suggested a unique mix of Liberal & PC signs on lawns that is not as common in HKLB (which usually sees FAR more Blue signs than any other). So while the race is more competitive, and the distrust of Scott (to a slight degree) still exists in the riding, It is clear that there is more of a push from PC & Liberal campaigners to step up the race. I give the edge to the PC's for the simple fact that in the by-election, most PC voters simply stayed home (not wanting to vote for 'city-folk' like Tory and not voting Liberal, because they never had or will). In this general election, you'll see more of the conservative feel for the riding (especially the Anti-McGuinty sentiment), and I predict Scott will win by 5k-9k votes.
    11 09 08 R.O.
    Haliburton Kawartha Lakes Brock time as a liberal riding is likely to be short lived , i simply don’t see this riding staying liberal this year. Rick Johnson obvivously only won it because of John Tory and his bizare decision to run here when it was clear his political career allready likely over anyways. Laurie Scott still remains a well respected former mpp and has deep family roots in the riding . she easily beat Johnson during the disasterous 07 election and once voting patterns return to normal this fall its likely she regains the riding for the pc’s.
    11 07 31 eb119
    Johnson only won last time in a by-election (in deep PC territory) because it was John Tory. Laurie Scott will easily defeat Johnson
    11 07 22 robert
    There can be no doubt here as Scott will take the riding back for the Tories. Wont matter to most that she stepped down for John Tory for the by election. Johnson has been an awful member (and back bencher). Does not know how to engage the constituency. Is awkward at public events. Was a school trustee in the past that was far too controlling with his board members and will be remembered as one of the poorest Ontario Public School Boards Association presidents. His retirement comes just in time.
    11 06 17 Rural Roots
    Simply Scott's to lose. Libs will try & make the ballot question her decision to step down, whereas the Tories will go after McGuinty. Johnson by & large has piggy backed on the Conservative Economic Action Plan for most of his funding announcements.
    It's almost embarrassing to see both candidates in the same room as Scott works the room while Rick stands in the corner waiting for folks to come to him.
    Rick's not a bad guy, but Scott will outwork him over the next 4 months
    Prediction Scott by 8,000
    11 05 07 CM
    At the very least this riding is too close to call, if not leaning Liberal. This comes down to the local candidates. People in this riding will not forget what Laurie Scott did in 2009 and nobody thinks she has paid for it yet. At the same time, Rick Johnson has brought in more money that Laurie Scott ever did. He's at almost every event that you can think of and has essentially campaigned since getting elected. Don't get caught up in thinking this election will be the usual PC-Liberal battle in this riding. If anything it's Johnson vs. Scott and it's a battle she'll lose.
    11 05 04 DJ
    The liberals currently hold the seat here, but the previous election was won by a slim margin. Laurie Scott has been reelected as the PC candidate, and despite her careless abandonment of the riding in 2009, she will probably win back the seat. HKLB is an intensely blue riding, so a switch back to the PCs will be unsurprising come October.
    11 02 15 Craig
    John Tory committed political suicide by trying to run in a strongly conservative riding that he was too liberal for and watched this riding jump to the Liberals as conservatives stayed home in droves. The question now is, will the voters forgive Laurie Scott or stay home once again? Since voters here definitely do not like the McGuinty government, I would think the PC's see this as ripe for the picking, but they need to try to do everything to quash a potential vote split on the right by an independent that could try to tap into the anti-Tory, anti-Liberal vote that stayed home in the by-election. Wait and see.
    11 02 02
    Almost certain PC victory, the by-election was more of a protest vs John Tory it seems.
    11 01 23 ptbo-student
    Incumbent (Rick Johnson Lib) v. Incumbent (Laurie Scott-PC)
    This will be one of the more interesting races that HKLB has seen in a while (other than the recent by-election that elected Rick Johnson over John Tory). As both MPPs have an incumbent advantage (of sorts) the voters of HKLB will be reflecting on past performances, and future opportunities. There still is some grumbling in the riding that Laurie Scott had 'abandoned' the riding, however, I do believe much of the grumbling came from past Liberal voters that didn't vote for her in the first place. The PC nomination overwhelmingly re-elected Laurie to the nomination, and PC voters are engaged and active. The PC local office also recorded the record number of PC members in this riding of ALL Ontario ridings due to Laurie Scott ?controversial? status. Rick Johnson on the other hand has been a quiet back-bencher rarely poking his face into pictures that get posted in the back pages of the local papers. He has suffered in many areas of the community regarding his inaction against stopping windmills in local areas that are opposed to it. While he is regarded in the community as a ?nice gentleman?, he lacks the leadership skills to gain any future cabinet position. Laurie Scott however, is likely to be eyed by Tim Hudak for a potential cabinet position, as she has held many shadow-cabinet portfolios in the past and is well regarded in the PC ranks. I believe, that while we won't see re-election numbers for Laurie like we saw in past elections, she'll come up with the win over her lacklustre Liberal opponent.

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