11 10 04	Initial 24.235.183.195
Double J is erroneous in his assertion that Dave Nickle has run a weak campaign; on the contrary, Nickle is holding his own in the sign war thanks to heavy support in East City, downtown, and the old west end. Province-wide polling and indeed polling specific to Eastern Ontario demonstrates a veritable three-way race. I'm predicting a significantly reduced plural victory by Jeff Leal in this riding, with Nickle polling as well as he did in the federal election, where the Liberals placed third. Wilson will likely trump Nickle, not based on his strength as a candidate, but based on his affiliation and a polarizing yet affable federal Tory incumbent with a strong mandate. Nanos polling is inching towards a Liberal majority, but regardless of whether the Liberals win a minority, majority, or do not win at all, expect the following results in Peterborough Riding: LEAL 37 WILSON 32 NICKLE 26 BEAMISH 4 OTH 1
	11 10 02	Double J 173.34.183.231
Jeff Leal will hang on to Peterborough because the NDP campaign by Dave Hickle has been so weak he can't split enough of the Liberal vote to give the riding to the Tories. Leal has kept this a two way race between him and Tory candidate Al Wilson and that is the secret to keeping your riding this time if you are a Liberal.
	11 10 01	Stevo 99.232.142.184
As it now looks like we're heading for a Liberal minority government, Peterborough will indeed return its Liberal incumbent, in keeping with its bellwether status.
	11 09 28	R.O. 24.146.23.226
This riding was in the news as its MP decided to do a poll of his own after the Peterborough this week poll showed a large liberal lead . The Dean Del Mastro poll done by electright of 1000 voters was 34.6 liberal , 33 pc and 25 ndp . so Peterborough remains an extremly close race and following its history as a bellweather riding as provincial polls for province as a whole show a similary close race. i don't know what effect all the polling will have in ths riding or if a pressumed very close race might encourage more people to come out and vote .
	11 09 28	R.O. 24.146.23.226
This riding was in the news as its MP decided to do a poll of his own after the Peterborough this week poll showed a large liberal lead . The Dean Del Mastro poll done by electright of 1000 voters was 34.6 liberal , 33 pc and 25 ndp . so Peterborough remains an extremly close race and following its history as a bellweather riding as provincial polls for province as a whole show a similary close race. i don't know what effect all the polling will have in ths riding or if a pressumed very close race might encourage more people to come out and vote .
	11 09 23	Mike 67.21.97.114
There was a poll taken in this riding published in Peterborough This Week of 629 voters. The results were 45.5% for the Liberal candidate, 28.5% for the PC candidate and 22% for the NDP candidate. Obviously, with these kind of results, why this riding is considered to close to call is beyond me. Further, checking on the history of this riding, ever since 1975, this riding has voted for the candidate whose party won the most number of seats. If this holds true, then the Liberals are on course for a record third straight majority, especially considering how the PC campaign has virtually imploded since the first day of the campaign.
	11 09 22	A.S. 99.233.218.204
Though it has the generic appearance of a belwether, Peterborough is quirky--all three major parties can have a way of hitting mercurial highs and lows, often depending on the calibre of candidate and/or individual campaign. (I can't even say that it ?votes Liberal too much?, esp. given that its most recent federal and provincial belwether-busting came on behalf of non-Liberal parties. Maybe, in recent times, it voted ?Peter Adams? too much; but that's another story.) And I'd argue the seat isn't any more bound by ?traditional values? than it was in 2007, when Leal opened up a nearly 2:1 advantage over the Tories--and in real terms, the provincial Grits are little different now from then. Remember, too, re ?belwether? claims that the posts of Stevo and Wyatt came when it appeared that Hudak was headed for a clear majority--now, that's not so certain; indeed, between Horwath polling high and Nickle having multiple-campaign experience, three-way possibilities lie afoot here.
	11 09 21	Slats 72.38.124.134
Wyatt is wrong. Gillian Sandeman was elected as an MPP in the 70s. She was/is a New Democrat. Bad research or no research makes for bad politics.
	11 09 21	AD 24.246.31.39
Unless PC numbers go way back up in support I don't see this one in too much danger of flipping. I predict LPO hold, but it could be close.
	11 09 15	Banderblogger 24.235.145.77
Just did a long car trip making deliveries through the rural North East part of this riding which is traditionally a weak region for the Liberals. There were red signs everywhere. Talked to some farmers who were all happy with the Libs' solar/wind initiatives that they are taking part in or will be soon. There was also much talk of the crop insurance provided by the Liberals. Jeff Leal is going to keep this riding and make gains on the last election's results.
	11 09 09	Stevo 99.232.142.184
Wyatt has already responded to Canadian Election Atlas' non-factual post, so I won't repeat his refutation. Suffice it to say that it would take an extraordinary shift in political behaviour here for Peterborough to elect an MPP for a non-governing party.
	11 08 16	Dunner77 24.235.161.97
Peterborough is not a Liberal riding, its a riding home to a majority of citizens holding what are now referred to as ‘traditional values’. The Liberal party no longer represents these values which is why Conservatives like Dean Del Mastro and Alan Wilson have changed sides (both were once Liberal supporters). If Wilson can tap into 80% of the voters that supported Del Mastro in May, he wins this riding in a romp.
	11 08 15	wyatt 70.24.8.166
Not sure what is meant by ‘votes Liberal too often’. The last time the riding elected a Member of Parliament from the opposition was in 1979, and the last time it elected an MPP from opposition was in the '60's. This riding will be represented by a member from the governing party, just as it has been for the last four decades. There's nothing complicated in it, and it's not got any more loyalty to one party or another. It just goes with the tide, year after year, after year.
	11 08 13	Canadian Election Atlas 173.35.102.114
With the Liberals polling better now, this ‘bellwether’ (not really one, it votes Liberal too much) should be put back into the Liberal column. They have the power of incumbency in a popular MPP and should be able to keep it.
	Date 11	Stevo 99.232.142.184
Ontario's ultimate bellwether. Peterborough will easily flip to the PCs if, as looks almost unstoppable, the Hudak Tories prevail province-wide in October. The past impressive Liberal margins are irrelevant in a riding like this where people have a keen sense of where the province is going and don't hesitate to get on board.
	11 06 13	R.O. 24.146.23.226
Peterborough is one of a number of swing ridings the liberals gained at expense of ontario pc's in 2003. so the overall campaign will likely determine the winner here , Jeff Leal has some advantages but if province wide campaign for liberals falls short they are unlikely to hold seat. same for pc's they have to be leading province wide by a few points to pick this one up. they also have a new candidate this election as Alan Wilson won the nomination. also be interesting to see what ndp does here as they somehow managed to come in second federally even though weak former 07 provincial candidate Dave Nickle was running . so overall its far to early to say what might happen here come october.
	11 05 05	binriso 142.167.166.13
Seems like a bit too much of a margin to overcome, and the Liberals are probably going to lose some of the surrounding seats but they should hold here. If the Green/NDP vote declines it would probably go more Liberal as well.
	11 02 28	98.124.47.143
I have to agree with the previous posts who claimed PC, although I completely disagree for their reasons. We have seen, depends on the poll, 5% shift from Lib to PC over the last few months. If this were to hold it will only take a strong PC candidate to gain a few more percentage points and surpass Leal. I do not think the train will play any degree of a deal, ptbo-stuent, vast majority of people I speak to day-to-day understand that the process is more complicated than others let on. As a result, this will not be a significant issue. What will? 11% hike in hydro costs, HST, lack of the 407 to the 115, these issues the PCs have already been campaigning on and they are getting favourable media coverage. If there is a strong PC candidate; they will win, barring the person doesn't pull a John-Tory. NDP increases vote share by less than a percent.
	11 02 22	Mr Jamieson 24.235.135.194
Jeff Leal is the only candidate brining name recognition to this election. Peterborough PCs and NDP are very weak in Peterborough right now. The main employers are Education and Health care; teachers and nurses who have been burnt repeatedly by the NDP under Rae and PCs under Harris/Eves. McGuinty will carry the province and Peterborough will going Liberal for a third time.
	11 02 21	ptbo-student 70.31.127.178
Wyatt is right. Leal is a dud. He is really struggling in Peterborough right now. Nothing seems to go his way, whether it’s the debacles of the Peterborough hospital, or the 407E funding stopped. He just can't seem to win. And even when he does work to get something done right (commuter rail link to Peterborough), his federal Conservative counterpart gets all the credit. So, since the Peter-patch is such a bell-weather, then I predict a slight PC win here...with whoever is the candidate...as I also predict a PC minority government province wide.
	11 02 07	wyatt 24.235.153.34
Aside from the provincial trend, Jeff Leal has made a number of mis-steps or non-steps to critical issues that make him vulnerable here. Rail, 407 and the hospital are all important issues in the riding that Mr. Leal has not asserted himself on, and unless the PC's really collapse, this seat will be a PC pickup.