Markham-Thornhill

	BERGMANN, CARYN
	HACKELBERG, CINDY
	KANAPATHI, LOGAN
	KUAH, JEFF
	NADLER, DAVID
	NATHAN, JUANITA

Incumbent(s):

	Markham-Unionville    Hon Michael Chan    (75.16% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Thornhill    Gila Martow    (24.84% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			102221
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		16074	51.37%
		10904	34.85%
		3187	10.19%
		729	2.33%
	OTHERS	394	1.26%
	Total Transposed	31289
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Markham-Unionville
		11571
		6892
		2359
		465
	Others	242
	Total Transposed	21529
	Thornhill
		4503
		4012
		828
		264
	Others	152
	Total Transposed	9759
Federal Election Result (2015):
		John McCallum **
		23878	55.70%
		Jobson Easow
		13849	32.30%
		Senthi Chelliah
		4595	10.70%
		Joshua Russell
		535	1.20%

	31/05/2018	MF 50.101.245.26
Like every other York Region seat, this is going PC.
	5/24/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
Incumbent advantage for liberals is gone. York region shows the PCs are going strong. The NDP have next to no support in this riding. Safe call for the PCs.
	20/04/2018	R.O. 24.146.17.189
Without Michael Chan running this riding is an open race and more likely to be competitive . liberals did win a federal by election here but provincially it
	05/04/2018	RD 38.99.161.190
From the Toronto Star: 'Two GTA Liberal cabinet ministers and an Eastern Ontario MPP have announced they will not run for re-election in June. 'International Trade Minister Michael Chan, 66, who represents Markham, and Government and Consumer Affairs Minister Tracy MacCharles, 54, the Pickering-Scarborough East MPP, are retiring. 'Joining them is Liberal MPP Grant Crack, 55, who has represented Glengarry-Prescott-Russell since 2011.' https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2018/04/05/liberal-cabinet-ministers-michael-chan-and-tracy-maccharles-mpp-grant-crack-say-they-are-retiring.html
	20/03/2018	MF 69.158.152.4
The Jewish population in Markham isn't simply an extension of the Vaughan side, it's more secular and 'establishment' so to speak than more Orthodox and Russian Vaughan. So not really a 'Ford Nation' demographic at all. But more important than the Jewish vote is the large Asian populations. The Chinese population is quite big and Chinese Canadians have been trending conservative lately. The Tamil vote...not so much. For now this is TCTC.
	19/03/2018	Stevo 165.225.76.198
This should go according to the overall provincial results. The Jewish vote in the west end of the riding is Tory-friendly, but the Asian vote that dominate the majority of this seat is Liberal-Tory swing.
	19/03/2018	A.S. 207.164.79.93
Actually, Gabbith, the Tories did indeed win the riding's Tamil polls with a Tamil candidate in 2011--polls that months earlier went federally New Democrat! (They were less successful with the same candidate in 2014, probably because of the more kill-the-poor-ish nature of Tim Hudak's campaign that year.)
	17/03/2018	Innocent bystander 67.215.130.68
The PCs are polling double the Liberals in York-Durham-Simcoe region; there are no safe Liberal seats in the 905.
	11/03/2018	JC 99.229.207.55
Markham has exceptionally high proportion of Chinese voters/residents. While the Chinese community has supported Liberals since the elder Trudeau days, that loyalty has been gradually eroding over the past decade. The community's social and fiscal conservative values are generally more aligned with right-wing candidates. During the PC Leadership, Mainstreet used Chinese speakers to poll Chinese speaking members, and Ford scored 52.4% (compare to 21.67% among English speakers, and 5.26% among South Asians). He clearly has a strong following in the Chinese community. In the 2015 elections, the most Chinese ridings in GTA and in Greater Vancouver both elected Conservative MPs, while the rest of the regions went overwhelmingly Liberal. Toss-up at best, likely PC leaning at this point. The Liberals only saving grace is that it is running a high-profile Chinese cabinet minister.
	21/12/2017	Gabbith 75.98.19.133
Another interesting riding. Conservatives have always tanked in the Tamil areas of the riding. Now they are running a councillor who is Tamil and represents the part of the riding where they are weakest. Chinese areas of the riding should swing PC this election.
	17/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
This is the most Liberal friendly of the Markham ridings and since it went Liberal in the 2011 federal disaster it would be tempting to call it for the Liberals. However in 2015 there was a much smaller swing towards the Liberals than nationwide and in the 2016 by-election the federal Tories who were leaderless then got 39% suggesting this is trending in the PC direction relative to the province, but whether it will be enough to actually win or not, too soon to tell.