Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-04-28 10:38:00

Constituency Profile









   Hon Michael Chan

   (75.16% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
   Gila Martow

   (24.84% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):102221

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

16074 51.37%
10904 34.85%
3187 10.19%
729 2.33%
OTHERS 394 1.26%
Total Transposed 31289

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed21529


Total Transposed9759

Federal Election Result (2015):

John McCallum **
Jobson Easow
Senthi Chelliah
Joshua Russell


31/05/2018 MF
Like every other York Region seat, this is going PC.
5/24/2018 Dr. Bear
Incumbent advantage for liberals is gone. York region shows the PCs are going strong. The NDP have next to no support in this riding. Safe call for the PCs.
20/04/2018 R.O.
Without Michael Chan running this riding is an open race and more likely to be competitive . liberals did win a federal by election here but provincially it
05/04/2018 RD
From the Toronto Star: 'Two GTA Liberal cabinet ministers and an Eastern Ontario MPP have announced they will not run for re-election in June.
'International Trade Minister Michael Chan, 66, who represents Markham, and Government and Consumer Affairs Minister Tracy MacCharles, 54, the Pickering-Scarborough East MPP, are retiring.
'Joining them is Liberal MPP Grant Crack, 55, who has represented Glengarry-Prescott-Russell since 2011.'
20/03/2018 MF
The Jewish population in Markham isn't simply an extension of the Vaughan side, it's more secular and 'establishment' so to speak than more Orthodox and Russian Vaughan. So not really a 'Ford Nation' demographic at all.
But more important than the Jewish vote is the large Asian populations. The Chinese population is quite big and Chinese Canadians have been trending conservative lately. The Tamil vote...not so much.
For now this is TCTC.
19/03/2018 Stevo
This should go according to the overall provincial results. The Jewish vote in the west end of the riding is Tory-friendly, but the Asian vote that dominate the majority of this seat is Liberal-Tory swing.
19/03/2018 A.S.
Actually, Gabbith, the Tories did indeed win the riding's Tamil polls with a Tamil candidate in 2011--polls that months earlier went federally New Democrat! (They were less successful with the same candidate in 2014, probably because of the more kill-the-poor-ish nature of Tim Hudak's campaign that year.)
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
The PCs are polling double the Liberals in York-Durham-Simcoe region; there are no safe Liberal seats in the 905.
11/03/2018 JC
Markham has exceptionally high proportion of Chinese voters/residents. While the Chinese community has supported Liberals since the elder Trudeau days, that loyalty has been gradually eroding over the past decade. The community's social and fiscal conservative values are generally more aligned with right-wing candidates.
During the PC Leadership, Mainstreet used Chinese speakers to poll Chinese speaking members, and Ford scored 52.4% (compare to 21.67% among English speakers, and 5.26% among South Asians). He clearly has a strong following in the Chinese community.
In the 2015 elections, the most Chinese ridings in GTA and in Greater Vancouver both elected Conservative MPs, while the rest of the regions went overwhelmingly Liberal.
Toss-up at best, likely PC leaning at this point. The Liberals only saving grace is that it is running a high-profile Chinese cabinet minister.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Another interesting riding. Conservatives have always tanked in the Tamil areas of the riding. Now they are running a councillor who is Tamil and represents the part of the riding where they are weakest. Chinese areas of the riding should swing PC this election.
17/12/2017 M. Lunn
This is the most Liberal friendly of the Markham ridings and since it went Liberal in the 2011 federal disaster it would be tempting to call it for the Liberals. However in 2015 there was a much smaller swing towards the Liberals than nationwide and in the 2016 by-election the federal Tories who were leaderless then got 39% suggesting this is trending in the PC direction relative to the province, but whether it will be enough to actually win or not, too soon to tell.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
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