Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-09 07:55:00

Constituency Profile


Balfour, Gene

Bergart, David

Hackelberg, Cindy

Martow, Gila

Yeung Racco, Sandra

Gila Martow


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Thornhill)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 06 11 miriam
    Wrong call guys by a country mile. PCs all the way. Gila has strong support from riding constituents of all nationalities and has done a great job as incumbent already in only 2 months. She has already proved she represents the whole riding of Thornhill, Vaughan and Markham. The PCs have been in charge of the riding now for 3 previous elections. The last Liberal to hold the riding was a Racco. Why should they vote one back in? Wasted vote for anyone other than Gila Martow.
    14 06 10 Marco Ricci
    I don't think this riding will go Liberal again provincially or federally until after Stephen Harper retires. Stephen Harper's strong pro-Jewish policies have made him very popular with Canadian Jews and that has helped the provincial PC brand. I thought the Shurman expense controversy & resignation might give the OLP a shot here, but they weren't able to make it as close as they needed to in the by-election. As someone else mentioned, there don't seem to be that many more NDP votes that are planning to line up behind the OLP against the PC's. Even Bernie Farber wasn't able to beat Shurman here in 2011, despite being a major figure in the Jewish community who was once the head of the Canadian Jewish Congress.
    14 06 09 NJam101
    I don't often comment on Southern electoral districts but I thought I would this time because I disagree with the prediction.
    Just looking at the 2011 general election result here (rounded to nearest tenth): PC 46.7%, Lib 40.9%, NDP 9.0%
    And the by-election in February of this year: PC 47.9%, Lib 41.6%, NDP 6.8%.
    I find that since the NDP is in the single digits there is next to no available movement for voters from the NDP to Liberal. If the NDP had received even 10-15% of the votes last time I'd say the Liberal candidate has a chance. But with a 6.8% NDP result this year it shows that virtually all possible NDP supporters voted Liberal already and did so for the last few elections. I just don't see where there is growth for Liberal support.
    Am I missing something?? I know that former PC MPP Shurman said he thought Hudak couldn't win as leader. But did anything cause any PC voters in Thornhill to switch to Liberal?? Probably not, unless there is something I don't know about because I don't live in Thornhill. Shurman's resignation and dispute with Hudak didn't seem to affect the by-election result.
    14 06 09 sandy
    If this website seriously believes the Liberals will take Thornhill, you are seriously wrong. The PC's have a strong base of support and Gila will not lose it.
    14 06 09 A.S.
    Well, technically, as long as the OLP remains above 40% in losing, Thornhill *is* worth 'wasting time and resources in'; even if its continued Tory incumbency (and the spectre of the Jewish Tory monolith) remains daunting--but a couple of things could work to the Grits' favour: (1) Wynne's proven a far more effective general election campaigner than a byelection campaigner, and (2) those living south of the 407 might feel a psychological bond w/the 416 Wynnapalooza on the horizon. John Tory's private-school-funding gambit swayed this PC; Wynne's urban(e) cosmopolitanism viewed against Hudak's rest-of-Ontario brittleness might yet sway some of that affluent/aspirational Jewish vote back--worth watching; this may turn out an unforeseen belwether...
    14 06 07 A.S.
    When you think about it, it really shouldn't be surprising that the OLP is still viable in Thornhill--even in defeat, they've never sunk below 40%. And the fact that despite all that 'you can't crack the Jewish Tory monolith' talk, it's *still*, even after the byelection, refusing to be OLP-unwinnable, might owe itself to a couple of things: (a) Premier Wynne's proven more adept as a general-election campaigner than as a byelection campaigner, and (b) by being predominantly south of the 407 corridor, Thornhill's practically a '416 spillover' seat--and thus within the 'Wynne cosmopolitan' sphere of electoral influence. Yeah, interesting: that the one true 2007 PC gain to come out of John Tory's private-school-funding platform might well become the one true (non-byelected) 2014 PC loss as a result of Team Hudak choking on its terminal Rest-Of-Ontario-ness...
    14 06 07 DB
    I am an NDP supporter, but because we do not have proportional representation I will vote Liberal. In some of the past PC victories in this riding the PC margin of victory has been the NDP vote. I wish I could vote my first choice, but true democracy has not yet reached Canada. I am hoping against hope for a Liberal victory in Thornhill. It should be close! I am not happy with the Liberals, but my memory of the Harris years is even more unpleasant.
    14 06 06 LFC Ottawa
    Ottawa South and Thornhill are the two ridings that parties waste time and resources in. The Liberals will not take this seat no matter what people say.
    14 06 06 R.O.
    This is a more than likely ont pc hold for Gila Martow the by election results were very similar to the last election results and that was with a new pc candidate that wasn't as well known as Peter Shurman . Gila Martow won the by election and beat a liberal candidate that was of higher profile than her. The only election this riding actually did vote liberal was 2003 and that was a year the liberals were winning or almost winning just about every riding all over the province , they aren't polling anywhere near that level and support is much softer once only committed voters are included in polls .
    14 06 06 Teddy Boragina
    Note the other predictions. All 3 of the predictions talk about Hudak. Hudak was leader last time when the Tories held this riding. The Tories should be able to hold this riding; the only way they lose is if they somehow lose a handful of seats.
    14 06 05 Big Jim
    I hate to say it, but this one will be decided by 1000 votes and looks like it will go lib. I base this on the dramatic increase in visible support for Libs on East of Yonge St. In by-election PC's were killing libs on this side of town (markham). Now the opposite, so sad to say Lib win, too bad cause Gila was a nice lady .
    14 05 30 Bev
    Signs don't vote. Sandra Racco has more signs in the byelection and still lost. Gila has a huge support base who just simply don't all take signs. This riding will be a PC hold. Gila will probably increase her vote share to above 50%
    14 05 28 rustyspirit
    If actual signs of people's property is a indicator then I think there will be an upset here in Thornhill. It's a conservative area but I think Hudak makes people nervous. I call for a Liberal win here.
    14 05 25 J
    Honestly, I'm surprised this one is too close to call. Fresh off a by-election win, there hasn't been enough time for any negative sentiments to develop against the PCs. I could understand if this race was last fought a few years ago, but it hasn't been that long.
    14 05 23 Beverley
    If Mario Racco only won the riding in 2003 by 796 votes in a time where the Liberals were wanted, I just cant see how after 2 great PC MPPs that his wife who is running AGAIN will take it. Gila Martow will hold this riding. She is well liked and people will vote her even if they don't like Tim Hudak. She has done great things for the riding in just 3 months and it would be silly if people who literally just elected her switched to Liberal (her same opponent)
    14 05 22 Alice
    Liberals always try for this riding but can never pull it off. I'd be surprised if they did in this election. I think the PCs are going to take this with a healthy margin again.
    14 05 19 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    I'm curious dave, will 'the Jews' send Colle, Hoskins and Kwinter back to Queen's Park as well?
    Calling this a Conservative hold for now, given that they have the advantage of incumbency and the Liberals are rerunning Sandra Yeung Racco again.
    14 05 17 arik k
    Gila Martow will have no problem holding on to this riding. She is riding on her byelection victory just 3 months ago. Her opponent is the same, Sandra Racco, who by relation to her former MPP husband Mario, is already disliked. Mario is not well liked in this riding. Gila is very well liked. Expect her to increase her support.
    14 05 13 dave
    Martow will hold. She is well liked and the Jews will send her back to Queens Park. Expect her vote share to rise aswell
    14 05 11 DL
    If the Liberals win this riding, and Tim Hudak, loses the election to a majority Liberal government. Hudak is gone as leader. This riding should be going conservative but the Liberals are making slight gains. However, there seems to be just enough Russian Jews in the riding to keep this one conservative but it is going to be close.
    14 05 08 kev
    Martow will hold this riding. Expect her vote share to rise as well. She is well liked and the Ontario Liberals are not polling well at all.
    14 05 04 monkey
    If the PCs could win this during a by-election when Hudak's numbers were worse and the gas plant scandal e-mails were not front page news, I see no reason they won't this time around. It won't be a blowout like it was federally but the PCs should get in the upper 40s to low 50s while Liberals around 40%.
    14 05 04 ben
    Gila Martow just got elected, She will prevail again! I also expect her winning percentage to rise.
    14 05 03 zz
    Gila Martow just won in the byelection. She also has strong Jewish support and she has done pretty good for just 2 months in office. PC hold
    14 05 03 William G
    Peter Shurman is out and Gila Martow won this riding for the PC's in a by-election mere months ago. I expect turnout to be low in this riding as a result and I don't really envision the voters tossing Martow out either. PC hold.
    14 02 14
    Conservatives won byelection here, so they will probably win in general election too.
    14 01 29 Johnny Quest
    Well, well, peter is gone and PC's are in trouble, big time. Hudak is a weak leader, which is too bad because this province needs a change. By-election is called and the only thing PC's have going for them is a Rocco is running. Sadly, I think the brighter Rocco, which isnt saying much, will steal this riding back.
    14 01 04 z
    i think now that shurman is gone, and gila martow will likely get the nomination, she could take it. she has ton of liberal support
    13 06 19 AD
    TCTC? I don't think so. The PCs have an incumbency advantage. While the Liberals are doing okay in the polls overall (though the polls are kind of a little too early to be informative) I don't think it could possibly be enough to overturn the PC advantage in what realistically is a fairly conservative area. Granted, shifts in politics could very well change my prediction between now and the election, but for now, I call this one for the PCs.
    13 03 26 will87
    This riding has always been fairly close, but I think it is Shurman's as long as he continues to run.
    13 04 19 LFCOttawa
    Shurman has turned this once Liberal seat into a Tory stronghold. He will easily win re-election.
    13 03 22 Keen Observer
    I just don't see the Shurmanator losing this one. He's too popular and too high profile. PC save.
    13 02 18 seasaw
    Itis safe to say that if Peter Shurman won this in 2007 and 2011, in spite of terrible PC campaigns in those years, he will win it again this time.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    Peter will win here again. Remember Tina Molinari lost a close one here in the Liberal landslide of '03. Sherman won this twice, with the disastrous Tory campaign of '07 and '11. He should have no problem keeping his seat.

    Navigate to Ontario 2014 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2014
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2014 - Email Webmaster