London-Fanshawe

	ARMSTRONG, TERESA J.
	CAMPBELL, STEPHEN R
	CARRIERE, LISA
	HADISI, LAWVIN
	SMALL, ROB
	SZYMCZYSZYN, HENRYK
	WENIGER, ERIC

Incumbent(s):

	London-Fanshawe    Teresa J. Armstrong    (89.19% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	London North Centre    Hon Deborah Matthews    (7.30% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Elgin-Middlesex-London    Jeff Yurek    (3.51% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			119334
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		8017	20.23%
		9026	22.78%
		19863	50.14%
		1655	4.18%
	OTHERS	1058	2.67%
	Total Transposed	39618
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	London-Fanshawe
		7066
		8196
		17903
		1378
	Others	965
	Total Transposed	35508
	London North Centre
		515
		533
		1415
		200
	Others	63
	Total Transposed	2727
	Elgin-Middlesex-London
		435
		297
		545
		77
	Others	29
	Total Transposed	1383
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Irene Mathyssen **
		20684	37.80%
		Khalil Ramal
		17214	31.40%
		Suzanna Dieleman
		14891	27.20%
		Matthew Peloza
		1604	2.90%
		Ali Hamadi
		352	0.60%

	5/16/2018	UsedToBeGreen 67.69.138.228
I don't see the NDP losing this seat, but the Doug Ford version of the PCs plays very well in this blue collar riding. The PCs seem to have upped their ground game here, and Conservative supporters are more bold than in past elections. I've never seen this many blue signs on front laws in this area before.
	19/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Funny 'college faculty' claim from OntarioEye, given how the college-faculty factor has actually *buoyed* the Liberals over the past decade or so in places like London North Centre, Guelph, Waterloo, Kingston, Westdale, etc. In fact, Fanshawe College notwithstanding, this is the *least* town-and-gown of London's seats; and if the NDP didn't wield such a grip here, it'd be a natural for Ford populism, which could still pose a scare here. Come to think of it, the NDP held on federally largely through a vestigial Lib-Con split--the Dippers had a higher share in three Toronto ridings where they were defeated through a lopsided Liberal advantage. If the humiliated 2015 HarperCons could still hold on to 27% in an NDP riding, imagine what the FordCons can do...
	07/04/2018	OntarioEye 76.70.48.191
Many college faculty live in this riding, so it will definitely not go OLP. Next guess is the NDP. The teachers strike is a huge deal here, and many residents mention this at the door. NDP will win because London is not a traditional PC bastion, and with Funshawe being so close, it will carry the NDP to victory here
	2017-12-26	seasaw 99.225.226.230
This is pretty safe NDP riding, so the NDP should have no problem hanging on to this seat, unless the PC's or the Liberals win a huge Peterson type majority government, then this riding will stay NDP
	20/12/2017	Dr. Bear 75.119.248.107
The NDP have held this riding for some time now and got over 50% of the vote in 2014. Barring any massive shift away from NDP in SW Ontario (and there is no evidence of such) this riding will safely stay in the NDP column.
	15/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
With the Liberals being wildly unpopular in Southwestern Ontario, they are not likely to win anything south of Kitchener. The PCs can only win here on perfect splits as they have a ceiling in the low 30s so while the PCs may have a shot at the other two London ridings, this will easily stay NDP. Even in the 2015 federal election which was a lousy one for the NDP, they held this.