Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Baldwin-Sands, Lori

Cornish, Kathy

Loewen, Eric

McKeever, Paul

Yurek, Jeff

Hon Steve Peters


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 02 A.S.
    By a perfect storm of populist flukes (North, Peters), Elgin missed the Common Sense Revolution entirely even though it was the kind of seat that *should have been* Tory bedrock--now, finally, is its chance. Then again, given economic issues, the Ford plant closure and all--who knows whether populism will thwart the PCs again, this time on behalf of the NDP. Though the profile of the riding makes it unlikely; but, who knows...
    11 09 26 TJ
    With the Liberal incumbent out, the Tories will win this rural riding.
    11 09 23 Gpeter
    Without Steve Peters I don't see how OLP can carry the rural parts of this riding; I don't think London makes enough of it to allow them to hold. PC gain.
    11 09 21 AD
    This one in my opinion was a pretty easy call. I predict PC.
    1. No incumbant.
    2. Southwest Ontario looks like it is going largely blue. This riding seems a prime example. Regional polling supports this from Angus Reid/Ledger Marketing
    3. PCs are up enough and liberals are down enough from their 2007 numbers in the polls. Math suggests PC.
    11 09 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    While the Liberals may be making a come back in the polls, they wont be winning these rural seats without the benefit of incumbency. We know MPP Steve Peters is not running for re-election, and that means all hope is lost for the Grits. This riding is so right wing, that the Canadian Alliance nearly won it in 2000. The power of incumbency didn't even help MP Gar Knutson against the Tory tide in 2004.
    11 09 12
    You have to remember that this a riding that didn't even vote PC during Mike Harris era (having elected independent Peter North in 1995 and Liberal Steve Peters in 1999). I think Baldwin-Sands, who, like Steve Peters, is more broadly well-known in St. Thomas, will hold this riding, but it will be close.
    11 08 15 R.O.
    With Steve Peters no longer on the ballot the dynamics have changed greatly here and its difficult to envision this riding being the easy liberal hold it was the last couple of elections. the new liberal candidate is much lower profile than Peters was and provincial ndp gaining ground on the left. Jeff Yurek is also somewhat of an upgrade for the Ontario pc's over 07 candidtae Bill Fehr. so i think we have an interesting race here with the pc's having a slight advantage going into the election now that riding looking for a new mpp.
    11 05 23 Mike Sloan
    There was a ?Steve Peters? base here, but not a traditional Liberal base. The Tories will likely take 50% of the vote.
    11 05 12 Gone Fishing
    This is the type of riding the PCs should focus on and will likely pickup with the absence of Stephen Peters, a more rural bent is not a good place for Liberals these days with the waffling on the energy FIT program.
    The riding is strongly Conservative at the federal level and is the kind of place the more right wing message will resonate if Hudak can get the province to buy into it. I don't think there is much convincing the down on the farm crowd a change would be good.
    11 03 27 Bill
    With Peters gone, this should be an easy pick up for the Tories. EML is your typical conservative riding and Jeff Yurek is a solid candidate with good name recognition in the riding.
    11 03 15 seasaw
    Popular Steve Peters is retiring from politics. Peters was elected in '99, '03 and '07, mainly due to his own popularity and not his party affiliation. Now that he's retiring, this riding's a prime Tory target, and with ebbing Liberal poll numbers ( that is if it continues ), this'll be a pick up for the Tories.

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