Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2013-02-23 11:47:00

Constituency Profile


Cornish, Kathy

Fisher, John

Lavoie, Serge

Maloney, Clare

Yurek, Jeffrey

Jeff Yurek


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Elgin-Middlesex-London)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    14 06 02 Nysuloem
    This is such a diverse riding, and I think voters in St. Thomas really do decide the fate of this riding, but, as someone who grew up in Aylmer, I don't want to discount the Freedom Party candidate's impact on this riding. Claire Maloney is well known in Aylmer and Malahide Township and there are actually a very surprising number of signs in that area on people's private land. Certainly, the Freedom Party is not going to win, but I think that the Freedom Party might be a player in this riding.
    14 06 01 A.S.
    Thanks to two consecutive popular/populist mavericks (Peter North + Steve Peters), the Common Sense Revolution bypassed Elgin County altogether and it took until 2011 for EML to fulfill SW Ontario Tory Heartland expectations--with that done, it's hard to see how it'd switch, though it definitely would've been doable were the Horwath New Democrats still in '#1 in SW Ontario' mode. And thanks to the afterglow of said phase phase (with some reflection on the actual 2011 result), it'd now be deemed ignominous defeat for the ONDP to fall short of second, even if it were only by a dozen votes. (A decade ago, for them to flirt with second *at all* would have seemed the proverbial NDP 'moral victory'.)
    14 05 28 seasaw
    A Liberal prediction here ? The Liberals are doing quite poorly in this part of the province, the evidence is the beating they took in two nearby ridings, two long held Liberal ridings last year. Not much has changed, the PC's won it quite convincingly in 2011 with a lackluster campaign. This time, they have a better campaign and this riding's mostly rural ( whre PC's are strong and Libs are not ), it also includes St Thomas, a town hard hit by economic times, based on these facts, we have to call it PC hold.
    14 05 26 grey
    The signs for the Liberal candidate are out. The debate was positive for him and people are responding positively. Do not call the Liberal out as not being a challenger. There may be a surprise here.
    14 05 25 PM
    The Liberals are certainly visible in this riding and the candidate Serge Lavoie is getting a good response at the door when canvassing which he does daily. The phone calls have been positive also for Liberals. The Conservatives are being criticized on their platform as being scary. There are more and more signs being requested. I realize Jeff is popular in St. Thomas but his party is not. Don't count the Liberals out yet.
    14 05 24 Mark R
    As many NDP signs as PC ones in a supposedly strong PC riding - and not just in St Thomas, but throughout the riding. Liberal campaign invisible.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Like much of rural Southwestern Ontario, this voted PC last time around and considering how unpopular the Liberals are here, I cannot see this changing. The NDP may narrowly win in St. Thomas due its blue collar community, but they have no real base outside thus not enough support to take this overall.
    14 05 03 Numbers Pundit
    A riding that once sent Mitchell Hepburn and a number of Liberals to Queen's Park has trended solidly right in the past decade both federally and now provincially. The Liberals were lucky to hold the seat in 2007 due only to incumbent Steve Peter's personal popularity from his tenure as mayor in the five years preceding his 1999 defeat of Tory Bruce Smith. Yurek, a local pharmacist whose family is well-known across all of Elgin county tallied a solid result in 2011 despite the PCs limpish campaign that year. Given the 10 year incumbency of federal Tory MP Joe Preston, and the demographically small and isolated centre-left leaning areas of London included in the riding, Yurek should have little problem winning re-election.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    The Tories won this quite convincingly, the last time around, despite the fact that they ran one of their worst campaigns. Expect the same this time around, and if they run an adequate campaign, their victory here will be even bigger.

    Navigate to Ontario 2014 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    Ontario Provincial Election - 2014
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2014 - Email Webmaster