Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Simcoe North

Prediction Changed
2017-12-06 00:02:00

Constituency Profile








    Simcoe North
   Patrick Brown

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):108672

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

14394 32.18%
19556 43.71%
7224 16.15%
3562 7.96%
Total Transposed 44735

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Simcoe North

Total Transposed44735

Federal Election Result (2015):

Bruce Stanton **
Liz Riley
Richard Banigan
Peter Stubbins
Jacob Kearey-Moreland
Scott Whittaker


03/06/2018 Mariposa Mike
Easy PC winner. Any PC in-fighting was settled when Doug Downey was parachuted to Brown's 'new riding. Strong Liberal candidate but traditional blue riding esp provincial elections.
03/06/2018 Cal
This is close but I think the end of a dynasty. The NDP Campaign has been brilliant. The liberals are terrified of Ford. Might be a surprise here.
20/04/2018 R.O.

Garfield Dunlop represented Simcoe North for years , Jill Dunlop is poised to follow in his footsteps . she is a good candidate here for the pc
18/04/2018 A.S.
Keep in mind that Jill Dunlop isn't the only 'underexperienced' daughter of a noted Tory politico running in Simcoe County--and unlike Caroline Mulroney down Bradford way, she's truly a local girl. And hey, if it's safe enough to sacrifice on behalf of benign-at-the-time Patrick Brown, it's safe enough, period--and even the loss of their Oro-Medonte stronghold couldn't wrest the seat from federal Con hands in 2015...
2018-04-1 emmbee
Re earlier (Lunn) post - note that candidate Dunlop is the daughter, not wife of Garfield.
(And this is the sum total of her political experience)!
Plus she's got Doug Ford on her back.
Two big strikes!
Will this sway the local electorate?
Not likely!
(Fortunately for Ford it only requires one hand to mark an X on the ballot - the other can be used to hold one's nose).
23/03/2018 Teddy Boragina
Given the massive size of events since my last submission in this riding; I just wanted to clarify I expect no changes. Mayor Marshall is still the Liberal candidate and will get my vote, but he'll still be defeated by the PC candidate, likely by 10 to 15 points pending the province-wide results; 5 if the Liberals win another government.
03/03/2018 The Jackal
I have doubts whether the Patrick Brown fiasco will hurt Jill Dunlop's chances here. Plus if the Liberals couldn't pick this up in the last three elections with bad PC campaigns there is no way they will win this in June. The NDP are not a factor here
27/01/2018 MPP345
I'm wondering how the results in this riding, especially, will be influenced by the allegations of sexual assault against Brown. If he continues to run, will he have a major hit to his base? If someone else runs in his stead, will they be disadvantaged by association?
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Fully agree with Teddy Boragina on this one and I actually would not be surprised if the Liberals win most of the polls in Penetanguishene which often goes Liberal anyways, but Ramara and Severn are staunchly PC and Orillia usually heavily favours them, so the PC margins in those areas will more than cancel out any Liberal strength in Penetanguishene and perhaps Midland. Add to the fact Jill Dunlop who is the wife of the former MPP is running should be an asset for the PCs.
05/12/2017 Teddy Boragina
Gerry Marshall, the mayor of Penetanguishene and the leader of the county level government, is running as the Liberal candidate.
I live in Penetang and like the mayor (will probably vote for him) but realistically, he has little chance of taking the seat.

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