Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Port Moody-Coquitlam


Prediction Changed
2015-09-30 13:19:01
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Adcock, Jessie

Donnelly, Fin

Laidler, Tim

Madsen, Marcus

Verrier, Roland


Population/populations
(2011 census)

108326


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

2020246.49%
1758140.45%
37068.53%
18494.25%
Other 1200.28%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   New Westminster-Coquitlam
   (151/186 polls, 82.06% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Fin Donnelly
15393
15457
2926
1432
Other63


   Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
   (35/186 polls, 17.94% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. James Moore
4809
2124
780
417
Other57



 


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15 10 14 Tri-Cities Prediction
70.68.129.219
No doubt an NDP win. With the Conservative vote down, the Liberal surge in the Vancouver/Richmond area, the large NDP base, and the fact that Fin Donnelly is the incumbent will mean a sure victory. Won't be a crazy high win but a clear one. Maybe 40 - 45% of the vote.
15 10 13 BC predictor
162.156.138.98
The NDP vote here in 2011 was very strong and that's without Fin. He's an obvious star for the NDP in BC going forward and I can't see him losing here even with the strong CPC candidate.
15 10 07 A.S.
99.233.125.239
The notional 2011 Con figure may be skewed by the James Moore bits contained within--but not by much; Donnelly knew this was going to be a challenge, and boldly jumped for it w/full ground game. So at the present, the bigger threat may not be the 2011 Con-favouring numbers, but the sunken NDP share nation-wide: a falling tide grounding all ships, you know...
15 09 29 Brad
167.220.26.16
An Environics riding-specific poll was done on September 19 & 20, and in this riding it showed the NDP with a 7 point lead over the Conservatives amongst decided voters. http://www.votetogether.ca/pages/localpolling/
15 09 25 Matt A
206.116.115.208
Based on the signs I've seen around, the NDP look to have a pretty solid lock on the riding. In fact, although I'm sure I've seen some in passing, I can't remember any Conservative or Liberal Party signs up, only NDP.
15 09 22 Monkey Cheese
99.242.194.247
If this had been James Moore running this would likely be a Conservative hold, although with reduced vote count. Without Moore this is looking like a NDP gain. The Conservatives (Moore, Laureen Harper, and the Conservative candidate for this riding), shamelessly took advantage of the Terry Fox Run for partisan purposes. That is going to turn off many people and the Fox family has already distanced itself from the Conservatives. Stunts like this aren't going to win over any new support. If anything, it will only turn off people from the Conservatives.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/terry-fox-campaign-pledge-1.3236608
15 08 20 Garth
216.108.168.67
Recent Environics riding-specific poll shows the NDP with a huge lead over the Conservatives (Liberals in 3rd) in this riding.
15 07 14 MadCaper
47.55.194.157
Based on all the information available up to this point it appears that there is little doubt that the New Democrats will retain this seat.Fin is a very popular member and with the rise in support for the New Democrats in B.C.this seat is much safer that a few months ago when things were in political limbo.N.D.P.hold.
15 05 16 Gillian
173.206.227.204
Fin is a very popular MP. The new riding is made up of the major of his old riding. If Conservative MP James Moore was running, Fin would lose. Fin running against an unknown Conservative candidate = NDP win.
15 04 01 BJ
206.116.245.42
In order to come to a poli decision on this riding, one must fully understand its components. In its previous incarnation as New Westminster- Coquitlam, the NDP always had the edge. The strong NDP New Westminster portion acted as an NDP anchor for the riding.
Even then, back in 2011, the NDP only won by a 5% margin over the CPC. In 2008, that margin was an even slimmer 3% due to a higher Liberal vote. The Coquitlam portion of the riding then and now is basically the BC provincial riding of Coquitlam–Maillardville. Politically that could be considered as neutral turf between the CPC and the NDP.
In fact, during the May, 2013 BC provincial election, the provincial BC Liberals won the riding of Coquitlam–Maillardville on election night. Only after a recount, did the BC NDP win by a marginal 41 votes.
After redistribution, the heavy NDP portion of New Westminster has been removed. In its place, a new heavy CPC portion has been added. That portion consists of very small c conservative Anmore and Belcarra that votes heavily CPC. More importantly, that new area also includes a good chunk of Port Moodys large Heritage Mountain - a high-end, higher income residential area that also votes heavy CPC. That area is now the political anchor for the riding in favour of the CPC.
Again, with redistribution, the CPC would have won the new riding by a margin of 6% in 2011. Prior to the collapse of the Liberals, the CPC would have won by a wider margin of 9% back in 2008. With a combined current surging Liberal vote in inner Metro Vancouver plus a surging Green vote, likely most of that will come at the expense of 2011 NDP voters.
For those predicting an NDP victory here... sorry cannot see it happening. At all.
15 04 01 Dr. Bear
70.50.94.209
Another premature call. The orange wave in BC was more of a Liberal collapse, with NDP increased support coming from the center-left. While some will bleed to the Liberals, so will a comparable amount come from the CPC, thus neutralizing the loss. It is also probable that more votes will bleed from the CPC to the Liberals; the CPC are down more in BC than the NDP; the NDP is the incumbent party, with the incumbent candidate; and a chunk of the new riding comes from James Moore's riding, so the CPC votes may actually be Moore votes. Despite all this, I am not ready to say this will be an NDP hold. As was said by others, this riding has a north/south split with the north favoring the CPC and the south the NDP. I think it will be close and a call should be held off until a later date.
15 03 30 Fairview Resident
24.87.28.82
This is definitely a premature call for the Tories. Finn Donnelly is the incumbent in 5/6 of the riding and won that portion in 2011. The other portion went CPC by a substantial margin, in part due to James Moore's popularity. In that election, the CPC won BC over the NDP by 13%. Now, the CPC are tied with the Liberals in the province and only ahead of the NDP by about 6%. Donnelly will have a stronger incumbency advantage in 5/6 of the riding, and the Tories will not benefit from the Moore boost in the remaining 1/6. A strong Liberal candidate could spoil this for either the Tories or NDP, or could even have a shot at winning. But right now, I'd say that incumbent Donnelly is the favourite.
15 03 30 JC
69.165.234.184
Tim Laidler is a really good candidate for the Tories he runs a Veterans Transition Network and is going to be an asset for the CPC team, Donnelly has his work cut out for him and will definitely be in for a fight, I think its going to be interesting to see if the Left unites behind Donnelly in this riding in an effort to keep out the CPC. But this is definitely TCTC
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
I wouldn't call this so quickly. Fin Donnelly is the incumbent while for the Tories it includes some areas in James Moore's former riding who got a lot of personal votes. Port Moody is mixed with the Tories dominating areas on the north side of the Burrard Inlet and NDP on the south. The parts of Coquitlam picked up also tend to favour the NDP as the NDP tends to do well on the West side of Coquitlam and Tories on the east. The real spoiler could be the Liberals who won't win here, but will likely do better than last time around so which side they take more votes from could be key.
15 03 26 JJ
50.67.15.0
Even with the orange wave of 2011, the NDP would have lost this seat by a margin of 2500 votes. While I expect the NDP to retain most of that vote with a strong national campaign, a chunk of their vote could go to the Liberals. Fin Donnelly will also find this riding much harder to win without New Westminster, and the CPC have nominated a young and quality candidate here.



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