Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Salaberry-SuroÓt


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:16:58
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

De Martin, Albert

DeBellefeuille, Claude

Domingos, Patricia

Larocque, Sylvain

Quach, Anne Minh-Thu

Sauvé, Robert

Socrates, Nicola-Silverado


Population/populations
(2011 census)

107036


2011 Result/rťsultats (redistributed)

685012.68%
2354643.60%
43948.14%
1822733.75%
9911.83%
Reference - Punditsí Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Beauharnois-Salaberry
   (191/250 polls, 74.36% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Punditsí Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Anne Minh-Thu Quach
5260
17503
3244
13575
701


   Vaudreuil-Soulanges
   (59/250 polls, 25.64% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Punditsí Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Jamie Nicholls
1590
6043
1150
4652
290



 


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15 10 17 Teddy Boragina AKA TheNewTeddy
75.119.242.95
Indeed
Also, a note, the Bloc has really pulled back, so the NDP has the edge here now.
And to Dr. Bear, I do recall that, and am quite willing should we find a way to contact one another.
15 10 15 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
No offence taken Teddy. I have indeed taken the NDP drop into account. We can agree that the NDP are polling roughly at 75% what they had in 2011. When you multiply 43.6% by 0.75 you get 32.7%: a statistical tie between the bloc and the NDP. You'll notice I did not make a call for either party. Realistically it can go either way and we should keep watching.
I'm glad you have acknowledged that I have sometimes been correct when you have not. I also recall our bet from 2011...one which I won. I'm still waiting for my six-pack of La Fin De Monde.
15 10 12 Teddy Boragina
69.165.149.184
A response to Dr. Bear in this, and a few other ridings.
Yes, the Bloc and Tories are at 2011 levels, but the NDP is not. In fact, the NDP is closer to 30% in the polls, whereas they took closer to 40% of the vote in Quebec last time. This means - to simplify, we could assume the CPC and BQ vote will be the same, but, the NDP will lose 1 of every 4 voters. What happens if you apply that to this riding?
Here in Salaberry the math shows us that the NDP would lose to the Bloc if true. Again, using Dr. Bear's own math, the NDP loses.
No personal offence to Dr. Bear intended, he has been right before where I have been wrong, but I do not feel this is such a case.
15 10 11 Jeff S
24.186.30.74
As with Sherbrooke, lean Bloc. But still up for grabs.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
Careful with the quick and crazy predictions for the conservatives and/or bloc. Both parties are up in the polls, but they are only polling (at the moment) around what they had on e-day in 2011. They were so far behind in Quebec that they are just now caught up to where they were when they bombed in the province. That said, I do agree this should be TCTC. The reason I raised back in March are applying once again. Keep an eye on the polls this week. If tends continue, the BQ could take this.
15 10 10 Jack Cox
24.226.65.140
This riding is going to be won by the Bloc, the party right now could win anywhere from 1-24 seats in Quebec right now but of the 4 they are currently projected to win this is one of them.
15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
69.165.149.184
Not keen on double posting like this, but given nobody else has, I must point out the math is now leaning more and more towards a Bloc win.
15 10 09 observer
24.156.205.18
I am calling this riding for Claude de Bellefeuille and the Bloc Quebecois. Sine 1994, this riding has been solidly Parti Quebecois at he provincial level. Federally, it is one of the most fickle, electing first the Bloc's Daniel Turp, who was defeated by the Liberal Serge Marcil, who was ousted by Alain Boire of the Bloc, who lost his nomination to Claude de bellefeuille, who lost to Miss Quach in the NDP Orange Crush. I believe that Mme. De Bellefeuille will reciover this seat for the Bloc on election night.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
23.91.128.216
A week or so ago, a dozen or two Quebec ridings were changed to the NDP here at the EPP. Since then, the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec.
There are a number of ridings currently predicted to go NDP that could go to another party if polls continue to drop. They are:
Pierre-Boucher, Salaberry, Abitibi, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Rimouski, Louis Hebert, and LaSalle.
In this riding in particular... the Bloc has a strong history, along with the area across the river.
15 09 21 A.S.
99.233.125.239
A comebacking Bloc-head, strong notional 2011 BQ figures and a history of single-term incumbencies suggests that a party switch is pending. OTOH the state of the Bloc at large suggests otherwise--besides, Salaberry-de-Valleyfield is the kind of old-school industrial town that the NDP tends to do well or at least competitively in (cf. Welland--and maybe, in utero, nearby Cornwall? Or even Sorel-Tracy, potentially?), and New York border-regionness also makes for some powerful if eensy-weensy Anglo nodes that'd never go Bloc in a million years. But just in case, I won't predict one way or another.
15 09 18 John
204.191.168.30
If I am reading the polls right, the NDP will either form the government or they will be official opposition.
That scenario favours the NDP. The race might be closer than it was in 2011, but I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP keeps this one.
15 09 08 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This is a riding where the bloc is running a former mp , Claude Debellefeuille had been mp from 2006-2011. I'm not sure what impact that will have but might keep the race closer than other ridings if the bloc has a better known candidate. But its still a riding the ndp won in 2011 so it might be an area they could hold but depends how overall campaign plays out.
C'est un comt√© o√Ļ le bloc est en cours d'ex√©cution un ancien mp , Claude Debellefeuille avait √©t√© mp √† partir de 2006-2011. Je ne suis pas s√Ľr quelle incidence cela aura mais pourrait tenir la course pr√®s que d'autres circonscriptions si le bloc a un meilleur candidat connu. Mais ses encore une circonscription le NPD remporte en 2011 de sorte qu'il pourrait √™tre un domaine qu'ils pourraient d√©tenir mais d√©pend comment campagne globale se joue.
15 07 17 Neal Ford
24.156.205.18
Claude de Bellefeuille, the longtime Bloquiste MP for this riding is running for her old seat again, and the numbers I am seeing indicate that she is neck and neck with the NDP Incumbent Anne marie Quach.
Any swing away from the NDP and this one goes back to the Bloc.
Provincially this region is a Parti Quebecois stronghold and has only elected Pequistes since 1994 when Serge deslieres took down Serge Marcil.
15 06 09 Observer
24.156.205.18
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 28 JFBreton
96.23.214.160
J'aurais tendance à pencher pour une courte victoire du NPD ici. La députée sortante est présente et le vote devrait se diviser plus qu'en 2011.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
204.187.20.75
This area of Quebec usually supports to PQ provincially, making it an area the BQ will target. Expect a close race between the NDP and BQ.



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