10 01 22	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 174.89.193.218
R.O.: You assessment is reasonable but you failed to take into account why these two high profile candidates failed to secure the seat for their respective parties. Traditionally this has been a Liberal riding and not really a seperatists stronghold. Marc Garneau ran here during the height of the sponsorship scandle, and as a result lost miserably. Really no surprise when even more Liberal friendly ridings were falling to the BQ (such as Brossard, Ahunsic, Papineau, Brome-Missiquoi, etc). Enter Michael Fortier, Steven Harper's unelected Montreal area cabinet minister. Everyone with an iota of common sense knows that Fortier would not have a prayer on the island of Montreal, so it seemed logical to run him off island where his chances are better. How do you thing the voters felt that this unelected minister (recall people were not happy with his appointment) from Mount Royal (read richy and largely English) is parachuted into this mostly rural, largely Francophone riding that doesn't have much of a Conservative hisotory save for the Mulroney years and 5 years in the later 1950's/early 1960's? They probably were not that impressed and it was reflected in how they voted. Better a local girl than someone coming down from up high because he could not win elsewhere. Now had the CPC storm blown through Quebec as it appeared to be doing at the start of last election, there would have been a closer outcome. Bottom line, this is not a conservative riding and people shouldn't be fooled into thinking that the CPC can take it unless they are riding a major wave in Quebec. For the Liberals, our prognosis isn't much better but we think they have a shot at retaking it. It's a long shot and should be viewed as a second-tier take-back two elections from now. Unless they're doing better in Quebec closer to e-day, they should focus more on winning back Gatineau and a host of other ridings in Montreal proper.
	09 12 11	R.O. 24.146.23.226
After 2 high profile federalist party candidates went to waste here ( Marc Garneau and Michael Fortier ) i see little chance with the current polls from quebec that it will be going anywhere but the bloc and current mp Meili Faille . as long as the bloc leads in the polls it very unlikely they lose such a seat as it allready turned down some high profile candidates for both the liberals and conservatives. and neither is likely to have anyone high profile run here next election or put significant resources into the riding. Apres que 2 haut profil candidats de parti federaliste sont alles gaspiller ici (Marc Garneau et Michael Fortier) je vois le petit hasard avec les sondages actuels de Québec qu'il ira n'importe ou mais le bloc et mp Meili Faille actuel. pourvu que le bloc mene dans les sondages il tres peu probable ils perdent un tel siege comme il allready a refuse quelques hauts candidats de profil pour les deux Les liberaux et les conservateurs et ni va en toute probabilite avoir n'importe qui haut profile la course ici prochaine election ou a mis des ressources significatives dans le prendre.
	09 09 01	Paul Tremblay 67.159.44.138
Smok, I have seen the flyer to which you refer and I agree that it was disgraceful, unfortunately most people don't pay attention to these flyers and therefore I doubt it will have any real effect on the election. The problem with your prediction is this : Normally the PQ/BQ vote in Vaudreuil-Soulanges has always been approximately 6 points under the provincial PQ/BQ average. But in 2006 the Bloc won 42 percent of the vote in Quebec and Meili Faille won 43 percent of the vote in Vaudreuil-Soulanges. And in 2008 the Bloc won 38 percent of the vote in Quebec and Meili Faille won 41 percent of the vote in Vaudreuil-Soulanges. Meanwhile in recent provincial elections the PQ vote remained at more or less 6 points under the PQ provincial average. This means that almost ten percent of the voters in the riding are people who would normally vote for a federalist candidate but choose to vote for Meili Faille instead. The Liberal Party would have to perform very well in Quebec generally (and by ‘very well’ I mean getting more votes than the Bloc, which seems highly unlikely) and have a really good local candidate (which also seems highly unlikely at this point) just to have a chance to win the riding. There is still no doubt whatsoever in my mind that Meili Faille will win once again... unfortunately.
	09 08 28	Smok Wawelski 69.159.78.163
Paul, I agree that if your prediction comes to pass, it will be 'unfortunately' , however, as a former resident of that riding, I think that a strong Liberal candidate will take it. Meili has held it since 2004 mainly because of vote splitting among Federalists. Somebody sent me a flyer put out by this MP at taxpayer expense. Ostensibly it was the mailings that MPs regularly send to update their constuents, but this piece of taxpayer subsidized trash was nothing more than outright separatist propaganda. It stated that Meili Faille was 'Votre Depute SOUVERAINISTE' and outlined why sovereignty was neccessary, why Bill 101 needs to be tightened and enforced, and on & on. Moreover it was in French only and last time I checked, there were significant anglophone poulations in Pincourt,Hudson And st Lazare. I fail to see how any non separatist could see this as anything else than what it was: a piece of BLOC Quebecois propaganda sent out at taxpayer expense. Not a WORD about what Meili was up to in Ottawa as an MP, no pictures of her even cutting a ribbon anywhere! After the Michael Fortier fiasco, the Tories will likely concentrate resources in areas where hey can actually win seats, while the Liberals seem to be faring better in and around Montreal, so thy should have no trouble recruiting a good candidate. Basically if vote splitting ends, Meili is gone. I just can't see how any federalist would have not been insulted and incensed by that mailing. It was hubris at its maximum.
	09 08 26	Paul Tremblay 67.159.44.138
As a longtime resident of this riding, I can attest that Meili Faille continues to be extremely popular locally. There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that she will win once again... unfortunately.
	09 08 26	Smok Wawelski 69.159.78.163
The Bloc has been holding this riding since 2004 because of Liberal-Tory vte splitting. Libs will be able to find a strong candidate this time, and the Tories will concentrate their resources on the seats they have, and incressing their totals in the Quebec/Lac St jean/Beauce periphery, rather than wasting their time and money in Vaudreuil. bye bye Meili!