Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Hull-Aylmer


Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:36:28
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Boulrice, Étienne

Chouinard-Boucher, Maude

Desjardins, Luc

Fergus, Greg

Fleury, Roger

Girard-Bernier, Gabriel

Mulligan, Sean J.

Turmel, Nycole


Population/populations
(2011 census)

103447


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

505010.04%
2955258.78%
1030420.49%
43628.68%
10122.01%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Hull-Aylmer
   (229/229 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Nycole Turmel
5050
29552
10304
4362
1012



 


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15 10 17 DSR
213.104.176.154
The Leger poll published today gives the Liberals a six point advantage over the NDP across the province. All voters: Lib 31%, NDP 25%, BQ 23%, Con 20%. Anglophone voters: Lib 51%, NDP 22%, Con 20%, BQ 4%. Francophone voters: Lib 27%, BQ 27%, NDP 26%, Con 20%.
On these figures this is going to be a tougher hold for the NDP than seemed remotely likely until quite recently.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Hull-Aylmer reminds me of Laval-Les ÃŽles. It was a long-term Liberal riding that went NDP by a huge margin in 2011.
Hull-Aylmer went NDP by an even wider margin than Laval-Les ÃŽles. However, it also has an even longer Liberal history -- even longer than Mount Royal & Westmount. Hull-Aylmer was Liberal for 95 years, since 1916.
Therefore, what is difficult to determine is whether the long-term Liberal history will re-emerge this year after a one-time fluke loss in 2011, or whether the large NDP margin in 2011 will allow Nycole Turmel to hold on.
While I give the edge to Turmel, it is not a guarantee. The Liberals are basically tied with the NDP now in this week's polls in Quebec, and contrary to what #ABC51 posted below, Mulcair no longer has the overwhelming approval ratings he once had. The latest Leger poll actually shows Mulcair in a 3-way tie in Quebec for best PM with Trudeau & Harper.
The fact that Justin Trudeau was in Hull-Gatineau this week is also probably an indication that Liberal internal numbers are beginning to show a shot for them here.
I give Turmel an edge based on her connections to the labour & government employess in this riding, but it wouldn't be a *total* shock if for some reason she was to lose.
15 10 11 Jeff S
24.186.30.74
While most of your other changes are understandable. this one should stay NDP.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
Interesting how one week changes things. I completely agree with ABC51's assessment, though his friend is also correct in that Turmel is vulnerable. If you look at current provincial polling numbers and extrapolate a result, then it becomes close (within 5 points), but the NDP still eke out a victory. I think, for reasons I outlined in my March post and for what was outlined below, the NDP will hold the seat, but watch Liberal target this seat hard in the next race.
15 10 02 #ABC51
24.212.221.36
I wasn't going to bother making a prediction here as the outcome is just so fuddle-duddling inevitable, but given as how I work in this riding and my best friend -- unfortunately a die-hard Liberal -- lives here and is convinced that Nycole Turmel is vulnerable, I really couldn't stop myself.
So without further adieu...
1. Turmel won this riding by nearly 40 points in 2011. Behind neighbouring Gatineau, this was the second best result for the NDP in all of Quebec.
2. Being that I work in this riding and my best friend lives here, I know that this riding is full of three things: civil servants, Francophones, and run-down neighbourhoods (likely filled with non-civil servants). Seems like the perfect demographic mix for a party that relies on a combination of affluent unionized workers and low-income folks for its share of the vote. The NDP could run someone like Dana Larsen in this riding and still hold it for years to come, barring a complete face-plant in Quebec. To collapse that utterly the NDP would need to do two things: first, form the government and second, fail epically while in government.
3. Fortunately for the good guys, they are not running Dana Larasen. Rather, they are running past PSAC president Nycole Turmel in a riding full of civil servants. So long as they run Turmel, the NDP is as likely to lose here as the Tories are to lose in rural Alberta.
4. Tom Mulcair is by far the most popular politician in Quebec, period, exclamation mark, game over.
This is as safe as safe gets for the Dipppers.
15 09 03 Tony
71.7.250.207
The NDP win here. Turmel was an interim leader of the opposition and probably gets a cabinet post should the NDP win government.
15 09 02 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Hard to believe this was once one of those so-declared 'safest Liberal seats in Canada*--and in fact, there *might* be an outside chance of Aylmer-Anglo-vote-based Liberal overperformance here. But as it now stands, that's likelier to be forboding for the next election rather than this one. And besides, the Orange Crushness here is augmented by a touch of Paul Dewar 'civil service coalition' spillover. Turmel might have been a little unspectacular as interim leader--and who knows if *that* foreshadows a party that'll ultimately be felled by an inch-deep stigma--but at the moment, that's but speculative thinking.
15 06 08 Mr. Dave
24.142.45.16
With NDP support taking a big leap since Bill C-51 was supported by the Liberals, the high profile that Nicole Turmel has should see her hold this riding with a comfortable margin.
NDP hold!
15 04 06 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
Nycole Turmel did win by a very large margin in 2011, as a previous poster noted.
I would give Turmel the edge at the moment based on her incumbency & high-profile within the NDP as former Interim Leader.
However, this riding used to be one of the safest Liberal seats in Québec (for about 100 years!) I don't think a prediction can be made with certainty here until closer to the election.
We need to see what the regional trends are. We also need to see if Turmel gets more negative publicity for being named one of the NDP MP's in the 'satellite offices' controversy.
15 03 30 2015
142.166.223.138
Turmel et L'NPD ont vaincu un deputé Libéral par 40% en 2011 et ils vont encore gagner cette circonscription par un grand majorité.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
With a large number of civil servants, this riding will naturally favour whichever party is most likely to increase the size of government so that would favour the NDP. This was traditionally a Liberal stronghold, but that was before the NDP made a breakthrough in Quebec. The NDP may not being doing as well in Quebec as they did in 2011, but they are still quite competitive and Mulcair leads Trudeau as who would make a better PM.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
66.49.210.99
With Liberal support returning to their former Quebec bastions, the Outaouais region should be turning red this turn. Having said that, Turmel has stood out amongst the crowd, especially when she took over the party for Layton. That being said, she won't be going down as easily as some of her orange-wave colleagues. I suspect this will be an interesting race.



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