07 11 23	Frank 99.239.196.224
Ce sera une course serrées mais Proulx perdera beaucoup de support comme l'ensemble des libéraux au Québec. Le bloc sera aussi en recul et Ducasse risque de se faufiler. Avec un niveau d'appui élevé au QUébec, le NPD devra gagner certains sièges et Hull-Aylmer est définitivement en tête de liste.
	07 09 15	Tom 130.64.137.61
Perhaps it is a bit early to be using a prediction of a different race to determine the result of this one, but the pending NDP breakthrough in Outremont will surely open the floodgates for increasing NDP competitiveness in Quebec, and Hull-Aylmer will almost certainly be the second seat (after Outremont) to fall.
	07 09 12	Nick J Boragina 74.14.16.208
Ducasse running here might have an impact on things. How much of an impact remains to be seen. What we do know is that this riding is not very separatist, and even if all the separatists get behind the bloc, federalists would rather coalesce behind a candidate they don’t like just to see the Bloc get defeated. It comes down to who that federalist candidate will be. If Ducasse can sell the point that this candidate should be him, then he could win. I don’t think he can make the sale, however, and foresee the Liberals winning here again. After all, Hull has voted Liberal federally since 1887 without a break. 120 year old trends are hard to break.
	07 06 07	binriso 156.34.223.78
Im a little bit more worried now that Ducasse has the NDP nomination here since he is their highest profile candidate other than Muclair which could split up some of the centre-left federalist vote. Also the greens should increase their vote which could have an impact. Provincially the area went strongly Liberal of course but a BQ win is not impossible here due to vote splitting or low turnout sadly. However the Liberals are 29-0 here, yep they?ve never lost not once since the riding was created in 1917. The only obstacle was Rocheleau crossing the floor to the BQ, but he got destroyed in 1993. As of now i predict a sizeable Liberal victory of at least 5000 votes. This riding will probably have the most split up vote in Quebec and the winner might barely go above 30% like 06.
	07 05 14	Incisive Logic 143.161.248.25
I don't know what CROP poll R.D. is referring to, but here is a collection of several different polls from Ipsos-Reid, Angus Reid, Decima Research, Léger Marketing, Strategic Counsel, and SES Research: http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/polls-quebec.php Not one of these 20+ polls places the NDP at 15% in Québec, and most polls don't even put the NDP at 15% nationally. Even if an individual poll found 15% of Québec voters supported the NDP, the margin of error would be at the very least 3%, and what the poll is actually saying, with 95% certainty, is that NDP support in Québec is between 12-18%. Since all other polls place the NDP below 15%, the mentioned CROP poll is likely one of those ‘one in twenty polls’ that is inaccurate. Actual NDP support is probably closer to 10% in Québec. If the NDP is in fact gaining support, as R.D. says, at the Bloc’s expense, then they will still lose to the Liberals by a significant margin. Considering that the Liberals are polling above 2006 levels in Québec, an NDP win in Hull is absolutely absurd. Regardless, last election the NDP came fourth and didn’t even earn half as many votes as the Liberals in Hull-Aylmer, and that was one of the worst elections for the Liberals in Québec ever. Recent polls are also placing the Liberals at a higher level of support than in the previous election, with the Bloc at lower levels of support. The Bloc are not going to win this riding unless they recover in the polls and Liberal support collapses well below 2006 levels. This riding has too many federal government workers to vote Conservative. The NDP prediction is just ridiculous, wishful thinking, based on a poor understanding of statistics and it detracts from the credibility of other NDP predictions on this site. The Liberals will hold Hull-Aylmer no problem.
	07 05 07	R.D. 12.4.238.25
A recent CROP poll shows the BQ has fallen to record low support in Quebec, 28%, with the Conservatives trailing closely at 26%, the Liberals at 22% and the NDP at 15%. While still in fourth, the NDP has shown the most gain of any of the four federalist parties, doubling its vote from the 2006 election. If these numbers hold out, the NDP could pick up a significant swing from the Bloc to surpass weak Liberal margins in Outremont and Hull-Aylmer, which gave the NDP its #1 and #3 best results 2006. The NDP's #2 result was Laurier--Sainte-Marie, which appears solidly BQ, although of course things could change there too if Gilles Duceppe leaves to seek the provincial PQ leadership. While Outremont looks like it might be the NDP's best bet, Pierre Ducasse is a strong candidate who has done much to try to build the party in Quebec. Further, with Paul Dewar holding Ottawa Centre for the NDP just across the river, there is a significant possibility for spillover effects if the two campaigns can coordinate publicity and GOTV efforts in the Ottawa-Hull region.
	07 05 05	M.C. 24.122.224.138
Claude G. prédit une victoire du Bloc dans Hull/Aylmer? J'appelle ça du ‘wishful thinking’. Le comté de Hull/Aylmer a toujours été un bastion libéral depuis plus de les années 1910, sauf entre 1990 et 1993 lorsque Gilles Rocheleau a fait défection du PLC au Bloc sous la direction de Lucien Bouchard. Je ne vois vraiment pas pourquoi il y aurait division du vote fédéraliste dans ce comté. Depuis 1999, Marcel Proulx, tout comme Marcel Massé, s'est levé pour défendre avec acharnement les intérêts de ses électeurs avec les gouvernement Chrétien et Martin. Donc, avec la réélection de Roch Cholette du PLQ au provincial et le fait que l'Outaouais a une tradition libérale au fédéral et au provincial, Marcel Proulx sera réélu très facilement avec près de 55% des votes.
	07 05 02	A.S. 74.99.222.209
If Hull-Aylmer is ‘only slightly less safe’, then why was the Liberal vote 32.67% here (only 3 1.3 points above the Bloc!) vs the 65.55% in Mount Royal? At this point, if it's safe, blame fragmented opposition--and for that matter, the now-Mulclairized NPD might indeed make Pierre Ducasse into the most likely giant-killer, after all. (Bizarre as that may sound--and being bizarre may just as well ensure Liberal survival. Or not.)
	07 04 23	Claude G. 74.14.210.63
Ça ne va pas très bien pour le PLC au Québec présentement et c'est tout le contraire pour le PCC qui, selon un sondage de Léger Marketing, talonnerait le BQ dans les intentions de vote. Je crois que cela va se traduire par un mouvement des voix du PLC vers le PC, tout particulièrement dans le Québec francophone. La majorité de 2000 voix de M. Proulx en 2006 pourrait bien fondre en faveur du PC, ce qui donnerait le comté de Hull-Aylmer au BQ par la division de vote fédéraliste.
	07 04 12	Brian Appel 64.230.124.52
Hull-Aylmer is only slightly less safe as a Liberal riding than Mount Royal is. The Liberals may not win it by Mount Royal-esque numbers, but they always win it. In fact, this riding has been Liberal longer than Mount Royal - since 1917 - with one exception when Gilles Rocheleau won the riding in 1988, joined the Bloc Quebecois in 1990, and got soundly beaten by the Liberal candidate, Marcel Masse, in 1993. So, if it weren't for that 3 year blip, this riding has been Liberal for 90 years and has elected a Liberal in every single election since its creation.
	07 03 25	65.87.235.135
The NDP is running Pierre Ducasse - the closest thing they have to a star in Quebec. He'll have a better shot here than in Manicouagan - but still a long shot. Pity.