Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Brome-Missisquoi


Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 15:52:19
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Lusson, Catherine

Melchior, Patrick

Moynan, Cindy

Paine, Patrick

Paradis, Denis

Poulin, Charles


Population/populations
(2011 census)

98616


2011 Result/rťsultats (redistributed)

625611.91%
2240542.65%
1158822.06%
1117121.26%
11202.13%
Reference - Punditsí Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Brome-Missisquoi
   (234/234 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Punditsí Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Pierre Jacob
6256
22405
11588
11171
1120



 


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15 10 07 JFBreton
216.218.2.47
Baisse marquée du NPD au Québec, hausse des Libéraux et du Bloc. Dans le cas de Brome-Missisquoi, ça avantagera Paradis qui se glissera entre les autres candidats. Courte victoire libérale.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
With the NDP falling, the BQ rising, and the Liberals solidifying, this riding is now a possible Liberal win again, but further data from Quebec will be needed in the next 2 weeks before determining this.
15 09 29 Spx
70.53.241.122
Three weeks left and I think unless the NDP is picking up some percentage points again this one is probably going Liberal. So for now I will call it for the Liberals.
15 09 08 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This is a riding where the liberals are running a former mp , Denis Paradis had been mp from 1995-2006 until he lost seat to bloc Quebecois. He's ran twice since and came in second both runs . the ndp mp elected in 2011 Pierre Jacob is not running for re-election so its also an open riding. The liberals have a well know candidate but still a riding the ndp won last election so tough to say what will happen here
C'est une circonscription o√Ļ les lib√©raux sont en cours d'ex√©cution un ancien mp , Denis Paradis avait √©t√© mp √† partir de 1995-2006 jusqu'√† ce qu'il perde si√®ge au Bloc qu√©b√©cois. Il a √©t√© deux fois depuis et est entr√© dans la deuxi√®me fois ex√©cute . le d√©put√© n√©o-d√©mocrate √©lu en 2011 Pierre Jacob n'est pas candidat √† la r√©√©lection de sorte que sa circonscription aussi ouvert. Les lib√©raux ont une bien conna√ģtre le candidat mais encore une circonscription le NPD a gagn√© la derni√®re √©lection si difficile √† dire ce qui va se passer ici
15 09 05 A.S.
99.233.125.239
The deflation of Justinmania means that what had been the Libs' lowest-hanging non-Montreal fruit is now their last desperate hope remaining. Though if it's of any compensation, as eternal-aspiring-comeback-kids in Brome-Missisquoi go, Paradis is of solider and more plausible stuff than Heward Grafftey.
15 08 30 Mr. Dave
24.142.40.236
The NDP brand has increased in support since the call of the election in rural Quebec, and even though this is an open seat, with 47-51% support according to various polling agencies, I'd be very surprised if this riding changes its political stripe.
NDP hold!
15 08 23 2015
142.166.222.131
I doubt the Liberals are going to win more than 1-2 ridings outside of Montreal-Laval. This one should be too far out of reach to win with a reinvigorated NDP the past few months.
15 08 11 J.F. Breton
216.218.2.47
Denis Paradis (PLC) tente un retour. Il jouit d'une bonne notoriété dans une circonscription avec un bon fond libéral. Je prévois une victoire serrée du PLC.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
If the Liberals win any rural seats in Quebec, this will be the first to fall as it is fairly federalist, Denis Paradis is well liked, and has a large Anglophone population. The main problem is the northern parts are more nationalistic so if they unite heavily behind one party it still might go NDP.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
69.172.99.97
The Liberals are reemerging as a force within their old strongholds. Couple that with long time former-Liberal MP Denis Paradis running for the Liberals and the announcement that the NDP incumbent is not running again, I'd say this is favored to return to the Liberal fold.



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