08 03 10	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Grafftey, schmafftey; the fact that he ran for the Progressive Canadians says it all (even if he got the best P-Can result in the country by far). And if the Tories didn't do that well last time, it's because they faced the unique situation of a Liberal rather than Bloc incumbent--had Paradis lost rather than won in '04 and reran in '06, the Grit and CPC results might well have been reversed a la Compton-Stanstead and Shefford. Now, with no sitting Grit MP, the way's a bit clearer for the Tories to craft a grand coalition of Anglo-federalists and soft Bloquistes--well, enough of one, anyway, even if they only eke in a la Lawrence Cannon. Okay, that isn't a positive certainty; but neither, in the present climate, is the idea of Grits being the only viable non-Bloc option around these parts--maybe that's why Denis Paradis is fleeing elsewhere...
	07 08 16	binriso 156.34.215.58
I will go out on a limb and predict a Liberal win here. First of all, if Heward Grafftey does not run again, his 2000 votes will go mostly Liberal over anyone else. Also, the Bloc are generally down in the polls, while the Liberals are usually up a bit in Quebec. The Conservatives did not do overly well here last time either only about 20% or so. Even though Denis Paradis is going to run in Brossard-La-Prarie, I still think the Liberals can pull off a narrow win of ~1000 votes. This will be one to watch. The taint of the Sponsorship scandal is gone too so there will be some who voted BQ who will come back to the Liberals, or go elsewhere both of which hurt the BQ's chances here.
	07 04 07	Stéphane Gaudet 70.83.98.126
Même chose que pour Compton-Stanstead. Un siège de l'Estrie, donc pas naturellement souverainiste, que le Bloc a remporté chaque fois (1993 et 2006) uniquement à cause de la division du vote fédéraliste. Si les fédéralistes décidaient de faire bloc derrière un candidat, conservateur ou libéral, c'est ce parti qui remportera le siège. Mais si les fédéralistes divisent une fois de plus leur vote entre PCC et PLC, le Bloc Québécois continuera de remporter la victoire par défaut sur une terre qui n'est pas du tout souverainiste.