Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:24:17

Constituency Profile


Bastarache, Ann

Boudreau, Hélène

King, Kevin

LeBlanc, Dominic

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (204/224 polls, 88.74% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Dominic LeBlanc

   (20/224 polls, 11.26% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Robert Goguen


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15 10 13 Teddy Boragina
Half of this riding is in Westmoreland county, and within that portion of the riding, the Liberals have never lost.
Ever, as far as I know. I've done the research some years ago, and may be mis-remembering, but, if I recall correctly, Eastern Westmoreland County, NB, is the only part of the country to vote Liberal in every election, ever held, ever.
I even lived in this riding, in 2004, and voted, while in Kent County... and thus is the only reason the Liberals might, ever, lose this riding, as they did once.
Kent County is in this riding, and the southern portion, is bellweather, if not slightly conservative, while the closer you get to Moncton, the less solidly Liberal the riding is, and areas in the south of Westmoreland county, like Sackville, are also not Liberal locks.
Still, if you ever want to see the 'Liberal Heartland' head area between Shediac and Dorchester, as this is the part of the country that has never voted against but.
15 09 13 Marco Ricci
While the NDP did win this riding in 1997 in the Alexa McDonough wave, that was a year in which Liberal support tanked for J?an Chr?tien in the Maritimes, before going back to the Liberals in 2000.
With Liberal support up in Atlantic Canada, and with Susan Levi-Peters, the 2011 NDP candidate endorsing Justin Trudeau's Liberals, it's unlikely the new NDP candidate will be able to challenge Dominic LeBlanc this year.
15 09 13 A.S.
Worth noting how redistribution gives the Liberals one big Acadian smooch: in terms of 2011, LeBlanc came 'third' in the parts since ceded to Fundy-Royal and Miramichi-Grand Lake, while the inherited Dieppe polls from Moncton et al are where the victorious *Conservatives* were third. It still only adds up to a notional Liberal figure of just over 40%; but hey, it's 2011 numbers, remember.
15 08 28 Agent Red
This should be interesting.
Hélène Boudreau is the NDP candidate for this riding and she is the current Vice President, Citizens Forum of the La Société de l'Acadie du N.B.
We're not sure how strong SANB support is in the riding but her candidacy could very well put Beauséjour in play.
15 08 12 Marco Ricci
The situation here remains much the same as it did during my last post 6 months ago. Dominic LeBlanc remains the favourite, and the Conservatives and NDP still don't have candidates here yet (although the NDP is expected to choose one next week).
15 06 11 RJC
Not only is this a historically Liberal seat (with, in its recent history, only a single hiccup - a 1997 NDP victory amidst unpopular Liberal EI reforms) that the Liberals managed to hold onto during the Iggypocalypse, but the general consensus seems to be that LeBlanc is destined to be the next Liberal leader - whenever the job comes open. Hard to imagine anyone else winning, short of a huge Tory or NDP landslide on the east coast.
15 05 17 Stevo
Beauséjour is the riding of the man the Liberals really ought to have selected as leader. He'll win handily again and become the likely frontrunner for the top job should Trudeau's Liberals finish third nationally once again (as I believe they will).
15 04 14 Dr. Bear
Anyone who can survive the 2011 Liberal implosion will survive the 2015 election. Easy hold for Leblanc.
15 03 28 monkey
This is the safest Liberal riding in New Brunswick and even stayed Liberal during the 1984 and 2011 disasters so even if their numbers fall nationally, I suspect they will easily hold this one.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
Clear Liberal seat, whose candidate will be a future LPC leader. Conservatives need to protect their members in this part of the country, not focus on pick ups. LPC win
15 03 26 Marco Ricci
Liberal hold for Dominic Leblanc. He lost several points in 2011 because of the Ignatieff collapse, but he will presumably go back up in 2015 now that Trudeau is leading in the Maritimes. The new boundaries also give him a couple extra points in redistribution. As a childhood friend of Justin Trudeau, he will probably be given an important role during the 2015 campaign.
15 03 21 Brian A
Not much to say here. Dom LeBlanc is a rockstar in New Brunswick, incredibly popular and a near-certain Cabinet Minister in the event of a Trudeau government. This riding is pure Acadien french, except for Sackville and Dorchester but even those folks love Dom. Liberal hold without much trouble.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Dominic LeBlanc will hold. He was a viable if minor leadership candidate against Michael Ignatieff, handing whom the crown without a leadership race proved to be a profound disaster - especially when he literally turned down the PMO in 2009. LeBlanc is perceived as responsive locally.
Liberals federally will gain from the upswing in Liberal support and kept promises regarding fracking, which were the major provincial issue in 2014.
LeBlanc is still perceived by some as a potential future Prime Minister. If Trudeau is shellacked in October it seems clear LeBlanc will go for it.
This is also solidly Acadian voting territory, Conservatives are wasting their time focusing on this riding.

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