Prediction Changed
9:25 PM 22/09/2007

Election Prediction Project

Pickering—Scarborough East
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge (57.8%)
Wayne Arthurs
Scarborough East (42.2%)
Hon Mary Anne V. Chambers

2003 Result (redistributed):

Authorized by the CFO for Wayne Authurs Campaign.

07 09 26 Steve
I think this is a very close race. You have Wayne Arthurs known east of
the Rouge River and Diana Hall known west of the Rouge River. In 2003
the combination of Wayne Arthurs and Mary Anne Chambers barely carried
the new combined seat even with the backlash against the Harris/Eves
If it weren't for faith based funding I would say this riding would easily
go conservative as a reaction to the McGinty government but I think the
unpopular position of John Tory on faith based funding will make this
race very close.
07 09 21 905er
You'll have red faces for not calling this one sooner. It won't be close. Even if the campaign turned south provincially for the Liberal, this is an easy win. There are two ridings in Durahm that are no longer really part of the 905 - this one quite literally isn't. Arthurs name and history matched with strong demographics mean you can mark this one down red.
07 09 18 Rob Kernoghan
I've been out canvassing in the 'Scarborough' part of the riding and let me tell you that people are not about to change their party representation soon. Although there are pockets of opposition in the 'Toronto' portion - this part of the riding is as Scarborough Liberal as any other.
Even with a 50/50 split here, Wayne Arthurs and his local profile in the Pickering portion of the riding (where he was evidently a successful mayor - from the little canvassing I've done on that side - since I live in the Scarborough half it's not appropriate for me to judge) - he will hold the riding for the Liberals and there will be not much change in plurality; that is unless something dramatic happens between now and e-day or the debate swinging the electorate one way or the other.
07 09 12 Don
Wayne Arthurs in an easy win. This new riding encompasses a good chunk of Pickering, where Liberal candidate Wayne Arthurs did a good job as Mayor, plus part of the former riding of Scarborough East, which is Liberal federally and provincially, plus a chunk of Scarborough Rouge River which has been Liberal for more than 20 years. Add to this that PC Candidate Diana Hall, Assistant to former NDP City Councllor Gay Cowbourne, has zero profile east of the Rouge River, it should be a shoe in for Arthurs come election day
07 09 05 Nick J Boragina
I think the comments that he might do well in the place he?s not from has some logic behind it. While being well known in a place means you have many supporters, it also means you have enemies. Running in a place you are not known means you don?t have any enemies except the ones you make. I see the Liberals won here last time under redistribution, and that the riding has been extended into Liberal Toronto. I don?t see a good reason why the Grits will lose this riding.
07 08 19 RyanOntario
This will be an interesting riding , going by its location and the fact in voted liberal federally the last two elections.
This will be the toughest riding in durham region for the pc's. Its the only seat where the liberals have the advantage since Wayne Arthurs is the mpp.
but won't make a prediction say its too close to call yet .
07 08 18 A.S.
One of '03's truest battle royals was between Finance Minister Janet Ecker and Pickering Mayor Wayne Arthurs; and today, Arthurs' caucus profile consists mainly of his being...the Pickering Mayor who upset Finance Minister Janet Ecker. And now, redistributed eastward into the 416, he's halfway incongruous--though it might ironically help his party electorally (perhaps latently a Liberal ?Michael Prue? situation: an ex-mayor's strength in the ordinarily weakest zone?). Still, it looks like it might be more of a draw than the Liberals are counting on--and in a funny way, I wouldn't have been surprised if Arthurs joined Mary Anne Chambers in retiring after a single term...

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