Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Leeds-Grenville


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Clark, Steve

Fulsom, Lance

Heffernan, Ray

Lundy, David

Taylor, Charlie

Incumbent:
Steve Clark

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * BOB RUNCIMAN
    22,75556.24%
    LORI BRYDEN
    11,60228.67%
    JEANIE WARNOCK
    2,9077.18%
    PAULINE KUHLMANN
    2,8216.97%
    MIKE DWYER
    3770.93%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1623940.42%
    1916647.71%
    228105.67%


  •  


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    11 09 27 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    What luck; the PCs succeeded Bob Runciman by surpassing him--a folk hero ever since being Brockville's ‘boy mayor’, Steve Clark simply cannot win by anything but a landslide. Potentially the strongest Tory seat in Ontario? Plausible...
    11 08 07 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    The pc's easily held this seat during the by-election last year when Steve Clark was first elected . its not likely the other parties are much of a factor here , this is a fairly safe conservative area even without Bob Runciman on the ballot.
    11 02 16 MF
    74.15.64.37
    Leeds-Grenville is one of the safest Tory ridings of all - in the most recent byelection they won with 66.6%.
    11 02 15 Craig
    76.67.31.214
    Internal squabbles aside where Steve Clark was threatened by Shawn Carmichael in the by-election (another case of establishment vs. Tea Party), this riding should definitely stay PC unless a rival independent runs. Even if such runs, the by-election and recent federal results suggest that the Liberal won't win even on a vote split. A similar result as in the by-election is likely, especially with John Tory no longer leader and weakening the cause here.



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