Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Brown, Gord

Gabriel, Matthew

Loveys, Marjory

Slade, Mary

Gord Brown

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • leeds-grenville (208/208 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 27 Stevo
    Safest Conservative seat in Ontario.
    But what about Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke, you ask? RNP has more of a populist political culture, meaning that it can be prone to dramatic vote shifts, even despite Cheryl Gallant's impressive vote tallies. I'm not saying it's likely to happen any time soon, but it's possible.
    Leads-Grenville on the other hand is more genuinely conservative in nature. So long as the CPC remains the only major party on the right of the political spectrum, they will win here.
    11 04 21 Rosaline
    Easy Conservative Victory. The Liberal candidate has been putting in lots of hours but will simply improve upon the dismal showing in 2008 for them. The NDP is running an invisible campaign with a much weaker candidate. The Greens seem to be running a stronger campaign over last time but a weak national campaign will stunt their growth, unsure if they'll break 10 this time.
    Prediction: CPC 53-55% LPC 23-25% NDP 10-12% GPC 9-11%
    11 04 17 G.J.
    The only thing on lawns that you see more of than Gord Brown signs are 'For Sale' signs for all those who have lost their jobs here.
    Brown will win but it isn't because he's delivering much.
    11 04 07 Tony Ducey
    This came close to going to the Alliance in 2000 so I can see it staying CPC in 2011 with the likelihood of a CPC majority.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    The Canadian Alliance almost won this in 2000 and the Tories got over 50% in 2004, one of only three ridings in Ontario, thus the Tories would need to be facing a complete wipeout in Ontario before they would lose this one.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    The Tories have been doing so well here in the last few elections it's hard to believe they (very narrowly) lost in 2000, and almost unbelievable that they didn't hold in 1988. But if it's not the safest Tory riding in Ontario nowadays, I don't know what is. For the record, this riding had the largest margin between first and second place in all of Ontario in 2008 - over 41 points. The 58.44% was only the second-best Tory finish, behind Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, but given the maverick independent run by a former MP there this time around, I'm willing to predict that Leeds-Grenville will have the best result for the Conservatives in Ontario in 2011.
    09 09 26 A.S.
    In a submission elsewhere I stated that York-Simcoe saw the lowest Grit second-place share of any Ontario CPC seat--I was wrong; *this* is the one. (And the Liberals won here in 1988. Not 1993. 1988.) Tories swept every poll; no contest except for second, unless Bob Rae starts bribing voters from his cottage or something.
    09 09 17 Insider
    Clearly Gord Brown would be nearly impossible to beat. Loveys has bought a house in the riding but is still seen as an outsider, and the Liberals haven't gained much support here. Armstrong probably won't run this time, and the NDP fairs much worse when he isn't around. If Jeff Poole runs as a Green, he'll probably finish second.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    Brown will take this again. Look for another margin above 50%. 19,000 votes is too much of a lead to overcome.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster