Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Hillier, Randy

MacDonald, Bill

Matte, Nancy

Parkhill, Dave

Incumbent:
Randy Hillier

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    RANDY HILLIER
    18,21340.58%
    IAN WILSON
    17,39338.76%
    ROSS SUTHERLAND
    5,62312.53%
    ROLLY MONTPELLIER
    3,1867.10%
    STELLA POSTMA
    4621.03%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1901944.57%
    1701539.88%
    379508.89%


  •  


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    11 09 14 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Randy Hillier or no Randy Hillier, 12% would be NDP par for these parts--and besides, if the figure didn't shrink through a united anti-Hillier opposition, it may have been because for all of Hillier's eccentricities, few actually *expected* the race to be so close in the end. After all, it was the current federal seat of one of Ontario's two 2000 Alliancers, Scott Reid--with an Ontario PC label, you were as good as in, right? Right now, though, I'm suspecting Hillier truly *is* as good as in, unless any Hudak flip-flopping on Tea Party populism bites back in this here archetypal Trillium Teabagger country...
    11 08 07 jeff316
    184.175.8.226
    Too many old hippies in Westport, granola crunchers in Perth and back to the landers on their acreages north of Kingston for the Liberals to win here. The secret key to this riding is in the NDP's results - even in a polarized, anybody-but-Randy 2007 election, the NDP pulled in 12 percent, well above the average NDP result in rural eastern Ontario.
    11 02 15 Craig
    76.67.31.214
    While the Liberals are fairly strong in the Red Tory/Liberal-type southern part of the riding around Highway 401 and made it close (and should hold Randy Hillier to a lower vote total than some other neighbouring ridings), they are absolutely vilified in strongly conservative Lanark County and other northern parts along Highway 7. As a result, Randy Hillier, as much as he is hated by the media and upper classes, should get re-elected with a somewhat larger margin, although he should only get around 50% of the vote.



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