Prediction Changed
8:18 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Elgin-Middlesex-London (96.9%)
Hon Steve Peters
Perth-Middlesex (3.1%)
John Wilkinson

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
With a right-winger running as a Liberal in a Rural riding, your going to see the Liberals do well regardless, but when that person is not only the sitting MPP but in the party that’s leading in the polls, you have created the formula for victory. A+B=C in this riding, where C is a strong Liberal Lock.
07 09 27 nesooite
What did Tip O'Neill say ?All politics is local? Steve Peters was a popular mayor of St. Thomas, is a popular incumbent and this is becoming more of a suburban riding (ie: London yuppie) as opposed to traditional Tory farm country riding.
07 09 17 Jim O'Brien
Andrew: I don't disagree with you concerning Mr. Peters. However, I think you are wrong concerning Christian voters. There are a significant number of Christians who usually liberal. In this community the Dutch and Mennonite communities have traditionally voted liberal. This one is going to move and you won't even know it until its to late.
07 09 15 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold.
1) Steve Peters is a huge asset for the Liberals here. The former St. Thomas mayor has a populist touch and a sincere appeal to voters. He is probably the only grocery store box boy elected mayor of a small city in electoral history. If he could win convincingly in 1999, he will certainly hold it this time.
2) Tory's private school policy will play well with the ridings conservative Christians; the same people who voted PC last time in a losing cause. Everyone else in the riding is likely to have a different perspective.
3) The Green Lane landfill is actually in Southwold in this riding, and the people in Southwold are happy to have it and the millions of dollars in support it brings to their community. Considering the City of London has been dumping its garbage on its neighbours in Elgin for years, this kind of thing isn't likely to excite the pulse of anyone who doesn't blow a gasket at the slightest provocation.
07 09 14 A.S.
If things worked logically (and Joe Preston's federal victories prove it), this seat should have gone solid Tory in '95 and stayed that way through '03 a la Oxford, Haldimand-Norfolk, etc. But throw out the logic book, for electorally speaking, Elgin missed out on the Common Sense Revolution altogether--first, by reelecting NDP-turned-Independent Peter North in '95; and then, by vouching for maverick St. Thomas mayor Steve Peters (who, as a Liberal, could match any Mike Harris Tory in the populist-appeal sweepstakes) in '99. And being in government and in cabinet doesn't seem to have quenched Peters' popular touch; indeed, just as only a PC like Bill Murdoch could have survived Walkerton within his own riding, so only a Liberal cabinet member like Steve Peters could withstand the Green Lane dump controversy within his own riding...
07 08 23 HRH
If it wasn't for Steve Peters' personal popularity, this riding would likely go solidly PC. But, Steve Peters will carry this riding once again for the Liberals, especially as the PC's have nominated a mostly unknown, seemingly sacrificial candidate.
07 08 23 RyanOntario
wondering about this riding , seen some recent polls that have the pc's gaining in southwestern ontario and also said many wanted a change in government
this riding hasn't been kind to the federal liberals (especially the rural polls) so i'm unsure if that trend could lead to a pc win here .
the liberals seem to have a stronger candidate Steve Peters than Bill Fehr pc candidate , but its too early to say who has advantage .
07 05 07 Angry Ontarian
Local Grit candidates have lots of explaining to do...why Toronto's garbage is being dumped in London's backyard!! Isn't this the riding being trashed? McGuinty better hope Londoners don't dump him too...
07 05 05 M. Lunn
A rather odd riding in the sense it is a very safe Tory one federally, but safe Liberal riding provincially. I expect Steve Peters to hold this as he is quite popular amongst rural voters even if many of them are a little more right wing than your typical liberal voter.

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