Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37

Constituency Profile


Bredfeldt, Cynthia

Cornell, Megan

Duff, Liam

MacLaren, Jack

Simser, Scott

Norman W. Sterling


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 03 Pete B.
    TCTC but this one is ripe for picking. The combination of the treatment of Norm Sterling, the ‘foreigner’ issue which is big with here and the fact that the Liberal candidate was endorsed by the Ottawa Citizen may be just enough for an upset.
    11 10 01 A.S.
    To Mike - Kanata: when I referred to C-MM ?swinging? to the Liberals, it didn't have to do with a Liberal win. It had to do with the Con-Lib margin decreasing from 35.43% to 32.99%--that is, it ?swung? by a little over 1.2% *to* the Grits, contrary to the nationwide pro-Harper/anti-Iggy trend. (UK psephologists with their swingometers love to obsess over such stuff.)
    11 09 27 Mike - Kanata
    First of all, one of the commenters on this thread said that this seat had swung to the Liberals federally this past election. He/She obviously does not live in the riding. The Liberals did not win this seat federally -- it has been held, and remains held, by Gordon O'Connor, the Chief Govt Whip, since 2004. So not sure what he/she is talking about.
    However, I think this race provincially could be competitive. The ouster of Norm Sterling has angered a number of people, including many members of the PC Riding Association who have broken away to endorse the Liberal challenger, Megan Cornell. Cornell, as opposed to MacLaren, has a long and decent track record of working in this community, has been out everywhere and has been strong on issues such as building a health hub in the Kanata area. Jack MacLaren, by contrast, doesn't stand for much beyond Jack MacLaren. All of his literature is just re-treads from the PCPO platform, nothing locally... meanwhile Cornell has built a local platform that plays well in this area.
    Depending on the vote split, I think Cornell could possibly eke this one out.
    11 09 21 A.S.
    Interestingly, this seat just swung *to* the Liberals federally--and this, on top of the nomination controversy, *could* make this worth watching...well, if Sterling went so far as to endorse Cornell. Who, as the 2007 candidate, is probably as well positioned as any Liberal can be--sure, she was 16 points behind then, but the margin was even bigger in Haliburton-KL-Brock, and you know what happened in the subsequent byelection *there*. Yeah, I know, none but the most whimsical comparison there--but anyway, don't be surprised if this becomes a marginal...
    11 09 15 JS
    The Liberal candidate, Megan Cornell, is well-known in the urban areas (Kanata and Stittsville) of this riding. As a first-time candidate she had a good result against a strong incumbent (Norm Sterling) in the previous election. Jack MacLaren is a significantly more right wing candidate than Norm Sterling was. His conservative, tea party-like politics and his focus on landowner rights don't resonate with the more centrist views held by the majority of people in this riding. Combine this with the Liberal's recent resurgence in the polls and it adds up to a close result on election night with the trend currently in the direction of the Liberal candidate.
    11 09 03 R.O.
    Conservative hold even after the nasty nomination battle between Sterling and Maclaren. its simply too conservative an area to have any realistic chance of voting for another party. liberal support or at least number of people voting liberal inceased here but only due to the large number of new homes being built in Kanata and Stittsville portions of riding. but its doubtful those areas go massively enough liberal for them to have any chance and still alot of conservative votes there.
    11 08 05 seasaw
    Norm Sterling who held the riding for 24 years, just lost the nomination here. If he runs as an independent, he'll be the favourite to be reelected, if not, it's anybody's game, one must ask if this is actually a Tory riding or a Sterling riding ? Look at the neighbouring riding of Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke which was held by Liberal Sean Conway, as soon as he retired the seat went Tory in an election which they lost. Same thing could happen here.
    11 02 27 Leo
    If Norm Sterling is able to withstand the challenge from Randy Hillier and the Ontario Landowners Association candidate Jack MacLaren. He should easily get re-elected as he has for the last 34 years.
    However, if Sterling loses the nomination or if MacLaren loses the nomination and decides to run as an independent. The Liberals would be the odds-on-favorites to win here as the riding is becoming increasingly urban/suburban where the Liberals tend to do better.
    11 02 19 Craig
    Regardless of who wins the highly publicized and very vicious nomination race which there is a strong movement by Jack MacLaren to oust Norm Sterling (real shades of the US Tea Party movement), I can't see any other party winning here. The only impact with a MacLaren takeover would be a Liberal vote rise, undercutting the NDP and Greens on strategic voting (and there isn't much NDP or Green support here), and possibly some votes shifting in Kanata which would be countered by increased rural turnout. The ONLY situation that the race could be interested is if MacLaren ran as an independent, but even that may not be enough for the Liberals.

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