Prediction Changed
8:21 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Carleton—Mississippi Mills
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Libertarian
ALEXANDER, ROBERT
Liberal
CORNELL, MEGAN
New Democratic
HADSKIS, MICHAEL
Family Coalition
JAMES, REYNOLDS
Green
OGILVIE, JOHN
Progressive Conservative
STERLING, NORM

Incumbent:
Lanark-Carleton (74.3%)
Norman W. Sterling
Nepean-Carleton (25.7%)
Lisa MacLeod

2003 Result (redistributed):
14593
37.82%
19802
51.32%
2124
05.50%




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07 10 09 Joe
65.93.149.173
Norm Sterling won in 2003 with reasonable margins and it seems that this riding tends to be a Tory stronghold. In the change craze of 2003, many PC ridings were swept into Liberal territory so for Sterling to hold on to this one means he has some sort of connection with his constituents. Predicting this one for Norm Sterling.
07 09 17 A.S.
74.99.222.209
It's weird how the federal scene has seen such political churn that the longest-serving member up for reelection only dates back to 1984 (and not continuously of the same party), while provincially, nobody bats an eye at Norm Sterling's 3-decades-and-counting. And that's going back to Bill Davis and Joe Clark days, so any Reform/Alliance-type stigma practically doesn't matter--not that it would matter, in a seat like this. (Now, when will Kanata ever be redistributed into a seat where Liberals have a chance?)
07 09 12 Nick J Boragina
74.14.16.208
Under the 2000 federal election, redistributed onto the 2004 map, this riding would have been won by the Alliance. Even though Federal and Provincial politics don?t always line up, this is a good indication of the right-wing tendencies of the voters here. Having a 50%+ PC redistribution of vote here is another indicator. Both of these signs point to another PC victory in this riding.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Norm Sterling has been an MP since 1977 and held this even during the worst elections in 1987, 1990, and 2003. This is one of the most conservative ridings in the province (it was one of only two to vote Canadian Alliance in 2000 federally, and was the second best Conservative showing federally in Ontario in both 2004 and 2006), so he will easily be re-elected here. This time around I expect him to get over 50%.



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