Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Sault Ste. Marie

Prediction Changed
2011-04-27 08:50:00

Constituency Profile


Hayes, Bryan

Macmichael, Luke

Martin, Tony

Provenzano, Christian

Riauka, Randy

Taffarel, Mike

Tony Martin

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • algoma-manitoulin (37/208 Polls)
  • sault-ste-marie (174/174 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 NJam101
    Tony Martin should win again. He is now seen as the one to vote for if you don't want Conservative. Bryan Hayes will do quite well for a Conservative in a Northern Ontario electoral district. Liberal Provenzano had a lot of support at the beginning of the campaign but is losing a lot of Martin as a result of Jack Layton's surprising success for his party and the fact that the NDP has a good chance of becoming the governing party. Conservatives in the Soo always argued that it's better to have an MP on the government benches. Well this is quite possible now by voting NDP. Who would have ever thought this was possible just a couple of weeks ago. If Tony Martin could get over 40% last time, he shouldn't be worried this time. I have many family members in the Sault who are Liberals and are voting NDP to make sure Hayes doesn't stand a chance due to vote splitting.
    11 04 25 R.O.
    Sault Ste Marie is a tough riding to call , ndp are gaining nationally but conservatives strong in Ontario . and liberal candidate refuses to give up hope that he somehow wins the riding. the fact Harper visited riding during the final week indicates its still close and a seat conservatives still feel could go blue . Bryan Hayes is a good candidate but not as well known as Tony Martin , but his vote on long gun registry may have cost him some support in riding. its really tough to say what happen here i predicted ndp last time but don't feel comfortable making such a prediction this time as back in 08 was unaware cpc doing so good here until election over. now i realise riding has turned into more of an ndp / cpc race and not ndp / liberal race of past years.
    11 04 25 What I See...
    There appears to be some misconceptions being represented in a number of previous postings. In the previous federal election the Liberal candidate was parachuted into this riding. In addition, many Liberals clearly did not gravitate to Dion. As a result, Liberals did not come out to vote in this riding. As a result, the Conservative support increased along with a stronger represented candidate. However, this election is vastly different. The race in Sault Ste. Marie is very close because there is strong Liberal support in this riding. Sault Ste. Marie strongly supported the Liberal MPP David Orazietti during the past two provincial election campaigns and he has one of the highest Liberal voter support percentage in the province. I also see stronger support for the Liberal candidate Provenzano than the Conservative Hayes. Provenzano ran two elections ago and almost won. From what I see, there are far more Liberal signs on peoples’ lawns than Conservative. This is a fact that is clearly evident as you drive around the city. There are several areas of the city where there are as much as three Liberal signs to every one Conservative sign. I would predict that Liberal Provenzano will vastly out-preform peoples prediction on this blog. This really could be a race between the NDP and the Liberals. The Conservatives will likely not win this riding. They do not appear to have a strong campaign this time around. I predict a real possibility of a Liberal win here. Don’t be confused or mislead by the past election results.
    11 04 24 Initial
    I want to stress that I'm not suggesting that Tony Martin is safe here, or that Bryan Hayes can't win it for the Conservatives. However, it's important to bear in mind that 308.com's projections are not based on actual riding-level polling, but on applying statistical estimates to the previous election results -- which means they can be skewed by quirks like one party registering an unexpectedly strong finish that owes more to another party's weak candidate than to a real, permanent shift in the riding's political dynamics.
    Hayes may certainly be in real contention here -- but in a riding where the Conservatives have never historically been as strong as the Liberals (the Mulroney sweep of 1984 is the only other time they've ever done better than third place), you can't exactly count on Christian Provenzano, who held the riding's traditionally stronger Liberal vote in 2006, doing as poorly as Paul Bichler did in 2008.
    11 04 23 JD West
    With the national NDP campaign picking up steam, they will hold onto all of their seats in Ontario including Sault Ste. Marie. Tony martin, like Jack Layton, is a great guy and people in the Sault feel good about voting for integrity in politics.
    11 04 10 J.B.
    Threehundredeight.com has conservative support over NDP by 1% with NDP losing ground and people upset over the long gun registry things look favourable for an upset.
    Provenzano signs are scattered around the city on public vacant lands where as NDP and Conservative signs are on actual homeowners property. Provanzno tied himself this time to a sinking ship as people just dont like Ignatiff. Provenzano has more baggage from being tied to Iggy not to mention the elistism of running off his uncle's coat tales.
    11 04 08 Stoney
    The idea that Sault Ste. Marie could go Conservative is a mirage. The close NDP-CON vote in 2006 was the result of a parachute Liberal candidate who was a non-factor and growing fatigue towards the NDP’s Tony Martin ‒ who has now been either MPP or MP for more than 20 years. Even with that, the Conservatives could not get over the hump, underscoring that this riding is just not fertile ground for team blue.
    This time around, Conservative candidate Hayes has been getting flak for dodging the local press and kicking people off his campaign’s and could lose some of the traditional Red Tory vote that is present up here as well as anti-Martin voters who just want the NDP out. Expect the traditional Liberal vote to return and many moderate NDP supporters to switch to Provenzano’s camp, making this a Liberal pick-up.
    11 04 09 Tony Ducey
    Could be very interesting to watch, I expect given the results last time and the fact Harper's been here quite a bit that this riding will go CPC this election.
    11 04 08
    With the collapse of NDP support in Ontario from 23% down to 11% (Nanos)and with a strong local Liberal candidate this riding will go Liberal..
    11 04 05 NJam101
    The Soo will definitely be an interesting place to watch the local results. Tony Martin did get about 40% of the votes last time with a weak Liberal candidate. The Conservative Cameron Ross was the real surprise because he was not far behind with 38%. This time the Liberal Provenzano candidate is much stronger with a well known name. Does Conservative Bryan Hayes have a chance? I would say yes but only if the other two's votes are well split. My bet right now is on Tony Martin as he is the incumbent and there is no immediate reason for him to be turfed. The Liberals haven't been strong in the Sault in the last few elections and Martin is the one to vote for if you don't want Conservative. As for the gun registry, this is almost entirely an urban riding with a small number of surrounding towns and townships. In fact, about 85% of the population lives in the City of Sault Ste. Marie. Most people there don't see the gun registry as being a hot button issue. There are a very vocal few who do but it makes little difference overall.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    An NDP-Tory battle although with the Liberals running Christian Provenzano I wouldn't be surprised if they improve their vote totals although probably enough to win this. The opposition to the gun registry could help the Conservatives although far from a certainty they will win this. Also any Liberal gains or loss will depend a lot on whom it comes from. At this point too close to call.
    11 03 27 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Harper wants to win this riding. He has come here a number of times in the past few years to make spending announcements, and has made it clear that he considers it a target. I don't see any evidence that any of this is paying off, but, I also don't see any evidence that the NDP will be able to hold on.
    11 03 14 Northern Guy
    Watch CTV's coverage of the Northern Ontario Conservative Rally. The candidate who stood out the most is former Sault Ste. Marie City Councillor Byran Hayes. No wonder it’s a targeting riding with a strong candidate. Party have been doing a lot of work in Northern Ontario yet the focus seems to be the Sault which came so close to knocking off Martin with an unknown candidate who lived outside of the Sault.
    11 03 02 J B T
    Former city councillor Bryan Hayes is running for the Conservatives and had a massive turnout for his nomination with an introduction from the son of the former Mayor John Rowswell who was slated to be the Conservative candidate.
    Campaign is being run by former liberal organizer from the provenzano campaign amongst others.
    10 02 26 MM
    This riding will go Liberal in the next election. Provenzano almost won the riding in 2006 and that was during a disastrous Federal Liberal campaign. The only reason the Conservatives did well in the 2008 election was because of both Dion and the parachute candidate Bichler. The Tories will drop to their usual 7000-8000 votes, and the Liberals will pick up those votes putting them almost even with the NDP total in 2008. Additionally, since Martin has been in Opposition for 6 years, and 10 years before that provincially, people in SSM are looking for a seat in government. Provenzano is also very well connected in the party, having served as Ignatieff's chief of staff, and is friends with Liberal Party President Alf Apps; all this gives him a good chance of getting in cabinet if the Liberals form government.
    10 01 05 R.O.
    Sault ste Marie continues to shape up to be an interesting race , since my last post Tony Martin has been re-nominated as the ndp candidate for the riding and plans to run again. also during the recent vote on the gun registry he was the only mp from northern ontario to vote against the conservatives bill. a decision which may not have been that popular in a riding with a large number of hunters and an odd decision considering the other ndp mp's from the north supported the bill. The conservatives still don't have an official candidate for the riding although Stephen Harper dropped by the riding a few months ago to announce funding for the border crossing that is located in the riding. a sure sign the conservatives are taking the riding seriously this time and more seriously than before. but its still really not clear who there next candidate might be here at the moment.
    09 12 04 A.S.
    You certainly can't say that the Soo hasn't gone by its own different electoral drummer--even provincially, Tony Martin nearly lost it when he shouldn't have in 1990, then won it when he shouldn't have in 1995, then lost it when he shouldn't have in 2003 (and Grit David Orazietti was reelected in a landslide when he shouldn't have in 2007). Federally, Martin lucked into being one of a pair of N Ontario NDP gains in 2004; yet in a shocker for this geography, he was nearly defeated by a *Tory* in 2008. I suppose that if it's a Grit Provenzano once again, it'll blunt CPC hopes for finishing unfinished business...but on whose behalf? At this point, Tony Martin's basically the Bill Siksay of the east: always snatching near-defeat from the jaws of victory...
    09 09 22 David Y.
    The Provenzano name didn't prevent the Liberals from losing this riding in 2004 or 2006, so I don't see why having Christian Provenzano back on the ballot again makes this a Liberal pick-up.
    Tony Martin has maintained a consistent level of support since taking the seat in 2004 (16512/04, 17979/06, 16572/08), while the votes for the Liberals and Conservatives have risen and fallen wildly.
    With the collapse of the Liberal vote from 15725 in 2006 to 6870 in 2008, Provenzano's candidacy will ensure that a large portion of the anti-NDP vote goes back to the Liberals, allowing Martin the opportunity to be elected for a fourth term.
    NDP hold!
    09 09 12 Marco Ricci
    It's hard to predict what will happen in this riding - it could be the most difficult to predict of the Northern Ontario ridings in the next election. The NDP are the incumbents but only won by a small margin over the Conservatives last time. The Liberals finished in a distant 3rd, but may be able to make up some ground with the Provenzano name running for them. If the NDP vote does not stay as high as it did last time in Northern Ontario, it could fall to the Conservatives, but it is also possible that the Cons may have come as close as they are going to. Can the Liberals come from 3rd place to win? That may be a bit difficult at this point, but a stronger Liberal vote could take votes away from the NDP or the Cons and let one or the other win.
    09 09 08 JD
    Sault Ste. Marie will be an interesting riding to watch during the next General Election, but not because of either Tony Martin or John Rowswell (who is still only rumoured to be the likely Conservative candidate). Liberal candidate Christian Provenzano is the one to follow in this riding. A lot of people are very excited to see him back on the ballot. He was Ignatieff's Chief-of-Staff in 2008 and instead of remaining within the party's inner circle as a key player; he decided to stay true to his roots and return home to run. Provenzano is young, connected and influential within the Liberal Party. He's got a reputation for being a hard-working campaigner, an excellent advisor and an impressive organizer.
    09 09 03 MC
    Could be a very close three-way race but with improved Liberal fortunes nationally I am ready to give them the edge. Provenzano came close in 2006 despite a disastorous campaign from the party nationally. This time out I think he will be able to get across the line. Tony Martin has been in the game a long time and the murmurs locally are that it is time for some new blood. A lot of soft NDP support could swing to the Liberals this time out. Rowswell is a good candidate for the Conservatives to run but this will be a far different ballgame than running for Mayor and that might catch him by surprise.
    09 09 01 MF
    I think Tony Martin will hang on. He was able to increase his margin of victory from before. Dion was a total flop in Northern Ontario which resulted in a collapse in the Liberal vote and most of the anti-NDP vote going Tory. With the Liberals certainly going to do much better than the 17% they received in '08, the anti-NDP vote won't be as solidified behind one candidate.
    09 08 29 G.B.
    There will be an interesting race in Sault Ste. Marie whenever the next election occurs. However I have to disagree with R.O. There is likely to be 2 major contenders running : being Tony Martin and the prospect of 3 term Mayor John Rowswell. Fair enough the liberals have found a better candidate than the 2008 election as they are running Christian Provenzano but then again the national liberals found better with Ignatief. Provenzano also has no accomplishments and hasn't shown the leadership of Rowswell or what Martin claims to have done as a member of the 3rd place opposition party. Provenzano best hope is Iggy pulls off an amazing national campaign. Unfortunately for Provenzano if he loses this election his hope of ever being elected is DONE. This could be unfortunate as he's a young guy with potential if he put in more of an effort. However from the media the conservative riding association has been extremely active from press releases always responding to anything Tony Martin' says unlike the liberals. The Conservative riding association has also organized numerous meetings with community leaders and Ministers during the multitude of federal announcements. If Rowswell runs in which he has said when the time comes he will run, game over for Tony who already in the media has shown his fear by complaining he’s not getting any credit in the media. With a strong team and a strong candidate with a strong national conservative campaign. The Sault is going to put northern Ontario on the Map as a progressive community
    09 08 26 R.O.
    There will be an interesting race in the Soo whenever the next election occurs and definitely too early to call a winner. there is likely to be 3 strong candidates running which include obviously the longtime ndp mp/mpp Tony Martin for the ndp. the liberals have also found a better candidate than 08 election as there running Christian Provenzano again as he had ran for them in 2006 election but came up short then. The conservatives after a very close finish in 2008 which i think some were surprised with that they actually came that close here are little less clear as to who there candidate might be although its been rumoured that current mayor of sault ste marie John Rowswelll might try and run for them as he has expressed interest in the idea. so its looking like it could be a tight 3 way race here even though the ndp have held this seat since 2004 but not by large margins.

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