Prediction Changed
5:00 PM 27/09/2008

Election Prediction Project

Sault Ste. Marie
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Bichler, Paul
Macmichael, Luke
New Democratic
Martin, Tony
First Peoples National
McLeod, Cory
Ross, Cameron
Taffarel, Mike

Tony Martin

2006 Result:
Tony Martin **
Christian Provenzano
Ken Walker
Mark Viitala
Guy Dumas
Mike Taffarel

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 Swift
The numbers Bear&Ape quoted are from a projection model that uses the previous election results and publicly available polling data on a regional and national basis. They can be quite inaccurate where there are local issues that heavily influence voters. In the last provincial election in the Soo Liberal support was underestimated by over twenty percent. NJ is correct in his claim that the NDP is going to do ell in Northern Ontario, picking up at least four seats. Notice, however the last and only Liberal prediction on this site was made way back in April 2007. Is there another riding in the country where the supporters of a party that finished a close second in the last two elections are so pessimistic about their chances in this election? Sherlock Holmes fans should have no problem recognizing the importance of the unexpected quiet.
While not as large a factor as in some other northern ridings, the native vote could be the decider in a close race. How many votes Corey Mcleod for the First Nations Party will pick up is unclear, but these votes will be mainly from Tony.
There is clearly an anybody but Tony movement in the riding, and it is also clear that it is going to be behind Cameron Ross. From my observations in the riding, it very likely will be enough to put a new MP in Ottawa.
08 10 10 Busted
Ha ha too funny, 24 109 76 212, got busted, don't steel for a living. unless you are using a shared computer with a few others in the house, you were busted by the NDP. Liberals came in strong second last time, unless the new liberal candidate is better known than the last one, this riding will stay the same.
08 10 09 NJam101
It's funny how the last few submissions claiming that Conservative Cameron Ross will win have the same IP addresses and are likely the same person using different names! I stand by what I wrote before. The NDP does seem to have momentum in Northern Ontario, nothing spectacular but enough to gain seats. I think they will win at least four and possibly up to eight out of the nine Northern seats. The Liberal Party is fairing better post-debates and with bad economic news. They will not increase their support in the region from last time and at best will keep the seats they have. Now talking about the Sault: I realize that Tony Martin will not get the majority of votes. He didn't last time and I don't think he ever did provincially. Last federal election he had 42%. Cameron Ross ran in 2004 and came in third place with 23% of the vote. This time he will likely do better, possibly second place as the Liberal candidate will not have the support Christian Provenzano did but will still get a decent amount of votes. History shows that the Soo votes in Liberal or NDP. There is no reason why people who are facing economic uncertainty, a recession and live in Northern Ontario would all of a sudden decide to support the current government. And no, people aren't going to change their votes in large numbers to elect someone in the same party as the winning government. The mayor and MPP can say whatever they want but they are not popular with everyone and are not going to influence the votes of most people.
08 10 07 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
The poll numbers we've been seeing say the NDP are around 40% in SSM with the Liberals at 30% and the CPC third at 25%. Suppose the starry-eyed Conservative supporters from 2006 have abandoned Windsor-Tecumseh and have descended upon the Soo. With Tory numbers falling this late in the game you can be sure that no riding where the NDP won with such a large margin will change this time. Maybe the Tory supporters should focus on Kenora, the only Northern Ontario riding where they have a shot at gaining this time 'round.
08 10 07 Joshman
Jonny boy must be an out of towner and only passed through the main drag, Fort Creek and area used to be a Liberal strong hold of Carmen Provenzano well let me say its now a sea of Blue.
I think the NDP have given up, martin looks old and tired in the debates, and had the liberal parachute candidate hammering away on him time and again. Of course he throws in the odd shot at the conservatives cause I personally believe that he doesnt want to come off two one-sided. Which brings we to the others interesting points. 1) if one looks at the sault star, columnist Doug Millroy interviewed liberal MPP David O who though Millroy says didnt directly come out and say it but pretty much endorsed Cameron Ross saying that the Soo needs to a elect a member of the government. 2) Mayor John Rowswell has now given a official public endorsement in support of Cameron Ross and the Conservatives. 3) 2 Ministers of the Conservative government have made appearances and we sure never saw that in a long time so obviously the Conservatives have the Soo as a winning riding especially this late in the game. usually Jack Layton shows up at least 2 if not three times. The NDP has lost the seat.
The Sault and area has been growing and people want a representative on the government side that will deliver as has been seen provincially. Conservatives should take this one fairly easily.
08 10 06 Jonny
I just drove through the riding including through the streets of the Sault. Ridiculous numbers of large conservative signs on street corners, but not a single one that I saw on private property. A couple of liberal lawn signs. Dozens and dozens of NDP lawn signs. I think the conservatives are wasting their time and money here.
08 09 30 Geri Nori
I think election prediction is quiet a bit off on its prediction, if one only looks at the news, weather online (, or print (saultstar) it is visible that there is a dramatic shift taking place in sault ste. marie. The liberal camp is silent unless it puts out a media release attacking the NDP, the conservative sign presence it flagrant with a sea of blue lawn signs on private property.
A change seems afoot, as the city has been growing and prospering and the people of the sault seem to be receptive seening the benefits they have reaped on the provincial level. The current MPP who replaced the incumbent provincially has taken a few shots as Martin, with an undertone that the city would be wise to elect a member of the government.
08 09 30 Swift
It is not so much an NDP surge in Northern Ontario, as it is a Liberal sag. This means that who benefits from the Liberal losses, and by how much, is very dependent on local issues and candidates. The Liberal MPP for much of the federal riding has called for Soo voters to defeat Tony Martin because he hasn't done a good job getting federal dollars. The huge increase in provincial funding after Martin lost his provincial seat backs up his claim. However David does not call on the voters to vote Liberal to defeat Tony, as he knows it is not going to happen this time. The NDP worker that I talked to recently was aware that there is a large swing to the Conservatives and expected them to take second easily. The history of this riding shows that large voter swings do happen occasionally. All signs point to this election being one of these.
08 09 27 Former NDP
I must disagree that with the misinformation being spewed that the NDP has all the Momentum in Northern Ontario, and that this this illusion automatically makes Martin the winner This time with ever a larger margin. If once takes a look around the community and local media it can visabilly be seen that Ross is taking the lead, an unlike the other conserverative predictor, there is more factual in print then word of the street and coffee shop talk. Look at the blogs on or (take a look at the poll which was conducted). Ross won the sign war on public and private land. Ross won the first debate, when Tony martin claimed that he has his fingers on every dollar which came into sault ste. marie, it was Ross that showed the proff that the man with the cheque was Tony Clement, Minister of Fednor. Yes the liberal candidate is weak, being from out of town and the usual liberal support will go to Ross. One thing that people say is that Tony is a nice guy but he's done nothing for the community, Since the ‘anybody but tony’ movement of David Orazietti which gave sault ste marie and seat at the table and a wack of dollars people are seeing such results and another ‘anybody but tony’ with a ‘we want a seat at the table’ is taking shape and should prevail October 14th.
08 09 27 NJam101
The NDP seems to have the momentum in Northern Ontario (if any party has any) and Tony Martin should win again. This time I think it will be by a larger margin. Paul Bichler isn't well known to the area and I think he will not do as well as Provenzano so much of that support will head to Martin. Amazing as it seems, Cameron Ross just might get second place. Ross isn't the kind of person who typically wins in Northern Ontario. I'll admit I don't know much about him but his bio makes him seem like someone who would be more popular in southern Ontario because of his business and military background. Tony Martin has been known for helping constituents well at a personal level and fighting for services. He did lose in the 2003 Ontario election during the Liberal wave but I don't think Saultites were trying to get rid of him. With no federal Liberal wave, NDP is the only way the Soo will go.
08 09 26 Swift
David Orazietti (Liberal Soo MPP) today released a statement criticizing the lack of federal funding for Soo area projects. For local residents this is a direct criticism of Tony Martin. There was a huge increase in provincial funding for projects in the Soo when David replaced Tony as MPP. David's landslide victory in the last provincial election was directly the result of this increased funding. This is going to have a far larger effect on local voters than any statement of Ken Dryden.
It is quite clear to even those who pay little attention to politics that the Conservatives are running a much stronger local campaign this time and the Liberals a much weaker one. For those wanting to get rid of Martin this election there is one choice, Cameron Ross. Very few of the votes the Liberals lose will go to Tony Martin. Tony will also lose the votes east of the Soo that he gained in the last election, as many of them were natural Conservative votes which switched because they were not going to vote for either Walker or the Liberals. Everything from signs on lawns to coffee shop conversations point to a large shift to the Conservatives, at least for this election.
08 09 26 northbynorthwest
A Martin (NDP), Ross (Conservative), Bichler (Liberal) finish seem right to me.
Bichler had Ken Dryden in to the community early in the week, praising Tony Martin for his work on child care and poverty but saying a vote against Stephen Harper has to be Liberal. That doesn't really follow when you have a NDP incumbent already stopping Harper.
Nevertheless, Dryden's appearance, a decent Liberal sign and media campaign, the provincial Liberal MPP message against the New Democrat should translate into a decent Liberal vote count around 10,000. That is 5,000 or so fewer than Christian Provenzano got for the Liberals last time. Where will those votes go? I suspect it will split among the New Democrats and Conservatives with a good number also not bothering to vote.
The New Democrats scored some points this week in released a Northern Ontario platform.
The market meltdown in the U.S. will only make the hard times harder in Northern Ontario. The loss of mills, jobs, high bills and debt will not be a good scenario for the Conservatives this time.
08 09 25 Shotgun Willie
I don't believe there is a better known politician in Sault Ste. Marie than Tony Martin. Having served many years as a provincial member and now a federal member, Martin has built a very solid reputation. More importantly, Tony Martin learned not to take his seat for granted after losing in the 2003 provincial election. Since then Martin has raised his level of activity and gained much more local media coverage than he had in his former provincial days. I just don't see the Conservatives making gains in Northern Ontario due to the difficult economic times. While the Canadian dollar running almost equal to the US conterpart has aided some in Ontario, it hurt the logging industry that plays such a major role in the northern economy. Also the high price of gasoline hits northerners harder as they have to travel longer distances. I in no way want to take anything away from Conservative candidate, Ross Cameron. I believe he is one of the better candidates to run for the Conseratives in years but I think there are just too many obstacles in his way. Finally, Tony Martin is made stronger by the weak campaign the Liberals are running in Sault Ste Marie. There is no chance of Martin losing votes to the Liberal candidate. In the end I see Martin holding the riding for the NDP with the Conseratives an improved second and the Liberals dropping to third.
08 09 21 J.P.
The Sault has made a big swing for the first time ever a sootoday poll has the Conservatives with a 3% lead over the NDP @ 34% with 10% undecided which is the Conservative national campaign seems strong. As much as people say that Tony is a nice guy, they seem to follow up with what has he really done? The Liberal candidate was parachuted and isn't a factor in this election so it's down to the Conservatives and the NDP, and seeing during my daily run that the Conservatives not only have won what some call the sign war, their campaign office is packed with people on comuters and phones which their as one many phone desks and computer desks vancant in Tony's office.
I think the Sault Ste. Marie wants a seat at the table to continue productive growth and development, and the results they no see from having a seat on the provincial level.
08 09 13 northbynorthwest
I used to live in the Sault and I can't agree it was an ‘anything but Martin’ movement that defeated him in the 2003 provincial election. It felt more like a ‘Mike Harris and the Conservatives have to go. The Liberals are winning big and let's be part of that’. Martin's first federal victory in 2004 against an incumbent about a year later confirms what the 2003 election was about. He's won the riding five or six times between his provincial and federal terms.
This will be a very interesting election there. The Liberals, usually the NDP big opposition, have yet to nominate a candidate. All the big names are sitting this election out. Christian Provezano, the last candidate, is now Ignatieff's chief of staff and declined to run, probably a smart move for anyone in the Iggy camp thinking Dion's leadership is on life support. The provincial MPP who beat Martin in 2003 was pressured to run and said no. I believe a former resident of the Sault who most people have not heard of has announced his candidacy. If the Liberals do not mount a strong campaign, that puts the Conservatives into play although their candidate, Cameron Ross, lives in the rural area and since running once in 2004 has not done much to raise his profile in the city where over 80 per cent of the vote is. A Harper majority and a weak local Liberal campaign would make it closer but Tony Martin should take this one fairly easy. He is in the media all the time and has made a name for himself in his fight to end poverty and to make FedNor an independent regional developlment agency serving only Northern Ontario.
08 09 07 Swift
Tony Martin's provincial defeat was the result of an anybody but Martin movement. Tony would not have won federally the first time except for a weak federal incumbent combined with a disorganized post merger Conservative party. In 2006 Tony faced an ill prepared rookie Liberal and a Conservative with candidate specific issues. This time is going to be different. Tony is facing another anybody but Martin movement, and since the Liberals have not even nominated a candidate the movement is obviously going to get behind Cameron Ross.
08 09 06 J. P
No big name liberal in site since Brady Irwin, son of Former Liberal Minister, and Christian Provenzano, newphen to the late Carmen Provenzano have declined to put thieir name on the ballot. Ross has been working diligently preparing for an election since winning the nomination. Ross has also hired a professional campaign manager/strategist who helped a conservative beat a strong hold NDP incumbent out west. With no liberal candidate or a at least a sacrificial lamb, the only alternative be to support Ross and the Conservatives, bringing many past liberal votes over to Ross. Should be an interesting election.
08 08 04 R.O.
Willing to say that as things stand now Tony Martin would easily hold this seat. For several reasons the most obvious being the lack of a nominated liberal candidate yet the main competitors in this riding. Also few if any big name liberals or conservatives have been to this riding a possible sign that its not high on there list of targeted ridings. And the mp also has been busy touring the north discussing his fednor private members bill which caused some controversy when he suggested the boundaries of the north should be changed but now he is ok with the current boundaries. The conservatives are a factor here as well but realistically its too much of a union town and bit too urban a riding for them.
08 04 05 Curley Larry and Moe
In the Soo, we believe that Tony Martin is in a very strong position to keep his seat. Martin gets a very large amount of coverage in the local media. It seems like every press release and comment Martin makes is covered. In a small town riding like this, media coverage like that is like gold. Economic times in the Soo are difficult and Martin is experienced enough to blame the Conservatives in Ottawa and the Liberals at Queen's Park for the mess.
08 02 29 Peg Leg Pete
Tony Martin believed that once you're elected in northern Ontario, you're there for life as he staggered into the 2003 provincial election campaign.
David Orizeitti had other ideas and out worked Tony and took him down. Since then, Martin learned his lesson and put 100 per cent into the 2006 federal campaign taking the riding. I think Tony still remembers what it was like to lose in 2003 and that fear will keep him at the doors in the next campaign. I predict Martin wins by 3500 votes this time.
07 11 11 R.O.
ndp hold well maybe , as Tony Martin is very visible in the local media and a longtime provincial mpp . but this riding did elect a provincial liberal , but ontario liberals focused more effort here including a new hospital and numerous other projects. so federally race will be much different and will depend on candidates and overall campaigns.
07 11 04 binriso
Just a thought, but Liberal Orazietti steamrollered the NDP candidate here in the provincial election by 11000 votes + 34% of the vote. It wasn’t even remotely close. Although its different federally here, Id give the Liberals a very good chance to take this next election, providing a good candidate, but if they keep floundering it’ll go back NDP.
07 04 20 NESooite
Traditionally this is a riding in which the NDP would receive 10,000 votes if a trained seal was running for office. The only times that the Liberal won (Ron Irwin, Carmen Provenzano) was when the Liberals were strong nationally and the local candidate had a strong ground roots effort. Conservatives do not have a hope in hell. Door-to-door contact is important in this riding. Mass advertising has little appeal. The NDP has always been strong in this area, primarily due to the Sault being a union community. If the Liberals are to win, they need to have a well-known candidate with a good team and that the Conservatives run a weak candidate.
07 04 12 A.S.
15% relative to 19% is hardly ‘grisly’ or evidence of terminal tailspin. Nonetheless, despite his MPP past, Tony Martin's grip onto the Soo isn't especially firm, and incumbent advantage still couldn't get him past marginality over the nephew of the previous office-holder (even as he gained ground over the Tories in the east-of-Soo polls). So, if four-points-downness continues for the NDP up to E-day, yes, this should be marked in the ‘vulnerable’ camp...
07 04 08 Brian Appel
The numbers for the NDP in Canada, and in Ontario in particular, are grisly indeed. Latest poll by the ever-reliable SES put the NDP at 15% in Ontario, down 4% since the election. The Conservatives, whose fortunes are rising in Canada's largest province, have no chance here, but should take enough votes to let the Liberal candidate take the seat away from a person who is, frankly, not a very strong MP. I call a Liberal gain.
07 04 04 Nick J Boragina
This riding is large enough to be swayed by party trends, but small enough to elect people based on personalities. While the NDP might be down a bit, any losses are to the greens, who historically do better in urban areas like Toronto, then they do out here. Tony Martin is also fairly popular, he's done a good job for the riding. It's by no means a lock, but this one looks NDP.

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