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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:26 PM 6/25/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:03 PM 07/05/2004

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Steve Armstrong
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Chris Bradshaw
Gord Brown
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Joe Jordan

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Leeds-Grenville (100.0%)
Hon. Joe Jordan

2000 Result/Résultats:
18,177 39.47%
18,132 39.37%
7,796 16.93%
971 2.11%
978 2.12%

(208/208 polls, 71984/71984 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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Email: youngreformers@yahoo.ca
Leeds-Grenville could've, would've and should've went Reform and Alliance in the last few elections, so Gord Brown and the Conservatives should take this one from Joe Jordan and the Grits.
04/06/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
This riding was recently featured on CPAC and in the Ottawa Citizen. As pointed out by Gord Brown, last election the NDP had a parachute candidate and were a non-factor, finishing with less votes than "Other".
Current NDP candidate Steve Armstrong is a local whose vote count in last fall's provincial election was the best in the party's history, and 2.5 times that of their last federal candidate.
A united right and a divided left makes this election a mirror-image of the last one ... and the results will be as well.
03/06/04 A. Werker Bee
If you want to know where Gord is travelling look in the Recorder & Times, which publishes his schedule every day. Since the campaign began he has been in Cardinal, Gananoque, Maitland, and a dozen other towns and villages in the riding. He has been out to factory gates and sidewalks. He has opened an office in Kemptville and will open offices in Prescott, Brockville and Athens this week. Also, since 90%+ of this riding is North of the 401, I'm not surprised to see that Jordan has at least one supporter up there. You didn't really make a prediction on seeing one single sign did you? After all, it could be a member of the candidate's family. Although I should point out that not all of the candidate's family will be supporting him, as his own sister in law, Bobbi has been a proud member of our Party for the past year.
03/06/04 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
As Harper's first-day campaign stop proves, this 2000 Ontario Alliance near-hat trick is such a symbolically important pushover, it isn't funny. Keep in mind that the start of the Jordan dynasty in 1988 was in itself a bit of a bordertown free-trade-election fluke; up until then, this was as hallowed federal Tory ground as it's been provincially under Runciman. Albeit Tory in the old-fashioned blue-Tory sense, as the strong second-place PC finishes for Sandra Lawn proved in '93 and '97--but as Gord Brown proved in '00 (and Runciman has *always* proved provincially), in this case PCness doesn't necessarily default into Liberal...
02/06/04 StocksNemesis
Email: stocksnemesis@yahoo.ca
Gordo....Where are you? Word on the street is that Gord "the banty rooster" Brown has been told by central campaign to stay home for fear that he might say something inflamatory. While this is probably a wise strategy given Gord's habit of rubbing people the wrong way, voters are starting to catch on. I saw another Joe Jordan sign go up on a traditional PC Tory's yard again today...and I'm not talking in Brockville, but north, way north of the 401. The push back is starting to kick in. Leeds Grenville voters don't like being taken for granted and Jordan has been active all over the riding gripping the flesh. A strong local campaign will pull this one out...
26/05/04 IGB
Email: [hidden]
Although I'm reticent to combine the PC and Alliance votes from 2000 to assume an automatic Conservative victory in most areas, Leeds-Grenville is going to defeat Liberal MP Joe Jordan in favour of the Conservatives. Although Jordan IS a good, competent MP and a decent guy, the natural right-wing bent of this riding will lead to his defeat. MPP Bob Runciman was elected here against the Liberal tide in 2003 with a very respectable 48% of the vote -- and this Liberal tide that has dissipated, especially in Eastern Ontario where the Conservatives stand to gain their greatest vote strength in Ontario. Conservative win.
25/05/04 J Poole
The nationwide Tory campaign was kicked off here on Sunday. Stephen Harper and 6 candidates and 400+ people were in attendence. This is up somewhat from the 300+ people that Day drew on his 2 visits in 2000. Most Mod Tories, such as myself are either backing Gord or sitting out, and very few are actively supporting the Liberal incumbent. I realize that Jordan's organization may look better than our own, but the Cossitt/Runciman machine has considerable depth. Rather than focus on a single Riding campaign, the Tories are organized into 26 municipal units, each responsible for the conduct of the campaign in their municipality. I admit that some of the municpal organizations are more organized than others, and some do nothing at all, but where the system works it is extremely effective and Jordan has no comparable system in place. Also, don't read too much into a candidate losing their own town in this riding. Runciman lost Brockville in 2003, Lawn lost Prescott in 1997. Both Prescott and Gananoque are tradional Liberal strongholds. This election will be decided in the villages (Lyn, Mallorytown, Elgin ect).
23/05/04 J.C.
Email: [hidden]
Joe Jordan is one of the bright lights in the Liberal caucus, and he has been a good MP. However, a combination of Martin's shocking flameout and, more importantly, a tradition of small c-conservative support in this riding, will ultimately elect Gord Brown. Before that sad eventuality, though, I will just remind the voters of Leeds-Grenville that it was Mr. Brown and his best friend MPP Bob Runciman, on the night of the 2000 election, who slammed Brown's hometown of Gananoque for not voting in majority numbers for Brown. What a bunch of sour grapes! Since when did residence automatically qualify someone of electoral support? My hunch is that Gan voters will forgive Brown and his team this time. But I shudder to think what venom will be spewed on the riding by the Tories should Jordan perform a miracle and win.
23/05/04 Full
Email: stocksnemesis@yahoo.ca
This riding will be tight as usual! No one expects a cakewalk here, and anyone who does is a fool, or doesn't know Gord Brown. Several factors will tip the scales in Joe Jordan's favour, namely, superior organization, solid resources, and a proven ability to succeed in the face of adversity.
Gord is in no way the "great right hope", frankly, if I were Joe Jordan I would have been more concerned with John Johnston getting the Alliance/Conservative nomination. But there in lies the problem, moderate Tories like Johnston are not going to move over en mass to the Alliance take over party of Brown and Harper. You can't spend half a decade screwing over every moderate conservative in the riding to get your way and then expect to get their unwavering love at election time.
Furthermore, a lot of right-leaning Liberals voted for Gord last time out of a dislike for Chretien, many of these voters will return under the Paul Martin banner (I personally know a lot of them and have been told as much in recent weeks). Given the choice between a respected Member of Parliament like Joe Jordan and Gord "the banty rooster who couldn't even win a poll in his home town of Gan" Brown, the people of Leeds Grenville will return Joe Jordan to Ottawa.
Jordan by 1250 votes, you heard it here first.
18/05/04 J Poole
Email: [hidden]
The last election was pretty much a dead tie when the Liberals had a 28.9% (51.5-23.6) lead in Ontario. Currently Ipsos-Reid shows that lead at 23%(49-26). So despite what some people I know have said, Gord is probably leading at this time. This assumes that the Tory vote in Ontario is distributed the same as the Alliance vote in 2000. Expect Harper to be here VERY early in the campaign (Day was) and he will probably come back again near the end. But forget about adding PC+CA, the 2000 PC vote here was as much anti-Alliance as it was anti-Liberal. In Ontario the combined PC/CA vote was 38%, since the Party is down around 26%, this argument simply does not work. My Prediction Conservatives 18,000+/- , Liberals 18,000-, Greens and NDP in that order.
/05/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
The Liberals have a 12 point lead in the polls, and Liberal strategists have been talking about the likelihood of losing 25 seats in Ontario. If you think they can win here, I'd like to see your list of the ones they're going to lose.
12/05/04 DD
Email: [hidden]
Gord Brown lost this riding when his Party was behind 17% in the polls. Gord's new party (his 3rd in 3 elections), is now behind more than 17%. Gord will have very limited support from former Torys and the Bob Runciman machine. A poll done before the nomination showed that Bob Runciman would have had over 50% support, compared to Brown's single digits. Gord should have spent less time playing trivial riding association politics and more time building up the new party. Prediction L-22000 C-20000 G-1300 NDP-900
06/05/04 Mr. Mischief
Email: [hidden]
The combined conservative vote in this riding was 57% in the last election, versus 39% for the Liberal. The Liberal won by POINT ONE PERCENT. That's the lowest margin of victory for a Liberal, in 2000, IN THE ENTIRE NATION. (I bothered to check the official elections Canada report from 2000.) I think that's all we need to know.
28/04/04 PFR
Email: webmaster@e-reich.org
The Canadian Alliance came with fifty votes of taking this ridng in 2000. The Conservatives will not let that happen again. Joe Jordan's days as a member of parliament are coming to an end.
31/03/04 Initial
Easy Conservative victory, the CPC will sweep. The combined vote well exceeded 38%. With the ADSCAM the Liberals are SO unpopular in and around Ottawa. The news that came from Fraser on Mar. 30 with definately hurt them across Canada. CPC 60%, Liberal 30%, NDP 10%.
29/03/04 Sarge
Email: [hidden]
Wow. I hope Joe Jordan has some job prospects lined up. Joe is a nice guy, a good MP, but, wow....
He needs two unlikely things to go his way in order to win:
1) The scandal not to play any part in influencing voters
2) 50% of the PC vote to go to him.
Hmmm... he better start practicing saying "Would you like fries with that?"
25/03/04 Harry
Email: Bobith25@yahoo.ca
This riding is all but guaranteed Tory. The merged Conservative vote would've placed this riding with over 56% of the vote. My prediction for the next election: 60% Conservative 35% Liberal 5% NDP
20/03/04 John Beamish
Email: [hidden]
As a former President of the Leeds Grenville PC Assoc. and former campaign chairman of Jennifer Cossitt, former Leeds MP, I'm seeing a definite swing toward the new Conservative Party and Gord Brown in this riding. Gord was within 55 votes of winning in the last election with the Alliance and now with the joining of the two parties, I don't think there's much doubt that he will win.
People I talk to are tired of the Martin Government corruption and find it very hard to believe that Martin didn't know about it, considering his position in the Liberal Gov't. Joe Jordan, our MP, was parliamentary secretary to M. Chretien who is not at all popular in this riding so that will go against Mr. Jordan in the election.
19/03/04 Christopher J. Currie
Email: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca

Before everyone writes off Joe Jordan completely, here are a few things to keep in mind:
(i) This area has been Liberal since 1988, not 1993. The last time the "united right" made a bid for this seat, they failed.
(ii) The Jordan family name means something here (Jim Jordan turned over the riding to his son in 1997). Dynasties are hard to beat in eastern Ontario.
(iii) Gord Brown is a strong candidate, but what's equally interesting is who's *not* running: Bob Runciman, who would've been a stronger candidate.
(iv) As I've said in other posts, the Alliance's 2000 upsurge in rural eastern Ontario might have been a bit of a fluke. The numbers from last time around probably aren't telling the full story as regards Liberal changes now.
Does this mean I'm predicting a Jordan win? No. At the moment, I'd give the Conservatives the upper hand here. But things could change pretty quickly, and this is *not* a Liberal write-off by any means.
17/03/04 Senator
Email: [hidden]
There should be no question about Leeds-Grenville. This is Conservative country. Gord Brown is back with an experienced campaign team. They will not let this one slip through their fingers. This time conservatives are united and everyone on the local association is working together. Just add up the numbers guys and do the math -- Jordan maxed out his vote in the last election and his stands on the gun registry and same sex marriage, along with his performance, or rather lack of performance over the past four years will cost him big time. Put this one in the win column for the Conservtives and Gord Brown.
17/03/04 Mandy Hull
Email: boatnews@kos.net
This is the second time I have sent this. Joe Jordan won by 55 votes in the last election. He lost to Gord Brown representing the Alliance. Gord is now the candidate for the CPOC. In the last election 8,000 people voted conservative. Gord will lead the Conservatives to victory in the next election. Good bye Joe, you gotta go!
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: Thebigeape2000@hotmail.com
Very, very close in 2000. Conservative keep in the Ontario election. It will be very hard for the liberals to keep this one unless their fortunes change.
16/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This riding was so close for the Alliance last time it's not funny. That alone would put this in the Conservative column, but the fact that MP Joe Jordan is responsible for defending the party in the sponsership scandal in committee will only hurt him. TV images of Jordan attached to the scandal will only hurt. 50 votes seperated the Liberals and the Alliance last time, this time there will be a big victory for the Conservatives.
15/03/04 RWA
Email: [hidden]
This was extremely close even with a split vote. If the Tories win only half a dozen seats in Ontario, this would be one of them.
15/03/04 Mike Wakefield
Email: [hidden]
Dead Liberal Walking #1.

Gord Brown is back, this time representing a united Conservative party, and the Jordan dynasty (Joe following Jim) ends here.

Brown lost last time by 0.1% of the votes cast; the closest Liberal win in Ontario on a percentage basis. Leeds-Grenville voters won't be staying up late this time.
27/02/04 Patrick Webber
This is one of those infamous Ontario ridings where the combined Alliance-PC vote in 2000 would have defeated the Liberals. If the Conservatives are to make a breakthrough in Ontario, it will be accomplished in ridings like Leeds-Grenville. This one is too close to call at the moment. Once the Tories elect a leader, it will be easier to predict.

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