Projet D'Élection Prévision
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élection générale (Canada) - 2009/10

Trois-Rivières


La prévision a changé
2009-09-03 16:35:57
 


 
Profil de circonscription

candidats:

Député:
Paule Brunelle

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • champlain (95/192 Polls)
  • trois-rivieres (117/206 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    10 01 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.192.10
    Given the current political state in Quebec this will be an easy BQ win. However the CPC should be eyeing this riding for future gains; as should the Liberals. If you look at the numbers between '06 and '08 there was no real change between BQ and Green numbers, yet the CPC lost to the Liberals and the NDP. What that means is that federalist voters are jumping parties; soft Liberal/NDP supporters parking their votes with the CPC when they thought the CPC could beat the speratists (as in '06); then returning to their respective parties when the CPC looked impotent in Quebec in '08. So how is that a gain for either the CPC or the Liberals? It means federalist voters will rally behind which ever party looks poised to win. Now the BQ voters in this riding are not hard core seperatists, but rather the soft nationalists who like a regional representative. When the Liberals were really focused on Quebec in the late 90's, Trois Rivieres was well on the Liberal's hit list (never panned out). If and when the CPC become in vogue in Quebec (and not blow it during the election), you will see similar numbers for the CPC. For now, both the Liberals and the CPC will be localized to their Montreal region, Quebec City region (respectively) strongholds and this riding will be a future tier target for those parties.
    09 09 02 JF Breton
    24.203.249.32
    Trois-Rivières devait être au centre de la vague conservatrice en 2008. Dans les faits, le Bloc a remporté la circonscription avec 10000 voix de majorité. Il n'y aura sûrement pas de vague conservatrice cette fois-ci. Victoire bloquiste.
    09 09 01 Paul Tremblay
    67.159.44.51
    This riding has voted for the Bloc in every election since 1993. There is no reason to believe that voters in Trois-Rivieres will suddenly change their behaviour. Easy Bloc win.



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