08 10 10	Stéphane Gaudet 70.82.32.76
Contrairement à ce que je croyais au début de la campagne, il n'y aura pas de vague conservatrice qui déferlera à partir de Québec vers la Mauricie et le Centre-du-Québec. Les conservateurs sont même en voie de perdre quelques-uns de leurs sièges au Québec. La candidate conservatrice (qui partait gagnante) est absente, évite les débats, sa directrice des communications a démissionné à quelques jours du vote. Bref, ça va mal pour le PCC dans ce comté malgré l'appui du député adéquiste. Réélection de la députée bloquiste Paule Brunelle.
	08 09 21	david m. 74.59.86.196
i've been wrestling with this one for a little while now. the province-wide polling data suggest that this should go conservative this time around, but there's something about the riding that just doesn't fit with that. first of all, the liberal and ndp scores last time around were already exceptionally low (for such a relatively urban place). this level of polarization suggests that the cpc route to victory runs straight through the bloc. okay. but the issue here is that it feels like trois rivieres' bq support is quite a lot more robust than that of superficially similar ridings (mauricie is definitely going cpc this time, for instance). in effect, whilst other dynamics in quebec ridings are already obvious (see my dozen or so other posts in the quebec section), trois rivieres' large number of nationalists and leftists make this riding somewhat more idiosyncratic. if i were a betting man, i'd go with the conventional wisdom and call this for the cpc, but i'm not, and i think the bloc can still pull this one out.
	08 02 10	A.S. 99.233.96.153
Any over-30% mandate obviously qualifies in the next targeted tier of CPC victory in Quebec. Yet to be seen, though, is whether Trois Rivieres ‘urbanity’ might, in the end, save the Bloc, much as similar urbanity saves a smattering of Ontario Liberals...
	07 12 24	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 76.67.136.25
Another riding where we're changing out prediction from CPC to TCTC. Why is that? Well the most recent poll had the CPC plummet to third place and 17% in Quebec. The reason is largly due to the Bali conference on climate change. The point is that the Quebec elcetorate is quite fickle and an honest and reliable prediction will have to wait until a date much closer to the election call. If we were compelled to make a decision, we'd go out on a limb and say CPC, though no one can make such a prediction with any degree of certainty.
	07 10 20	C B 72.38.227.236
With the margin of victory for the Bloc in '06 being only 7,000 votes (may seem like a lot, but in Quebec we've discovered that it isn't), this one will surely fall to the Tories should they maintain their standing in the polls come election day.
	07 06 18	70.55.117.11
Aux élections provinciales du 26 mars 2007, l'ADQ a réussi à conquérir la plupart des anciennes forteresses de l'Union nationale et Trois-Rivières était le compté de Maurice Duplessis. Il est peut-être trop tôt pour prédire un vainqueur ici, mais je me risque quand même à prédire une victoire conservatrice à Trois-Rivières. Et si les Conservateurs devraient augmenter leur percée au Québec en raflant certains comptés adéquistes au provincial, Trois-Rivières serait le premier compté à tomber dans leur corbeille. Par contre, si Harper perd du terrain de façon plus que dramatique au Québec, le compté restera au Bloc.
	07 04 06	J.F. Breton 70.81.76.2
Il m'apparaît trop tôt pour prédire une nouvelle victoire bloquiste ici. Tout dépendra de la candidature conservatrice. Il ne faut pas sous-estimer leur capacité à recruter un candidat de renom.