Prediction Changed
5:22 PM 09/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Richmond Hill
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative

Oak Ridges (100%)
Frank Klees

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 binriso
This was all Frank Klees's old riding, and the part of it that was put into this new riding Helena Jaczek beat him by 1%. Whoa. No major star candidates like Klees this time so that probably cancels out the projected lower Liberal vote. And again, no FCP candidate last time so the party could slice off 1-2% almost directly from the PCs and rob the PCs of this riding, which they could do in a few across the province. Alex Yuan was the one that got beat kinda badly in the Markham byelection and not to mention polls around that time were putting PCs and Liberals in a much closer race than it turned out to be. Liberal win by 3-5% ~2500 votes or so, maybe even a bit more.
07 10 08
Richmond Hill and Markham together are basically Chinatown-North. The Chinese here are more affluent and pragmatic and thus are more likely to vote Conservative or a Cabinet minister. Conservative putting a Chinese name on the ticket was a very smart Choice.
07 10 07 King of Kensington
I'm going to take a stab at this and say it will go Liberal. My guess is it was so close last time partly due to the personal popularity of Frank Klees. It looks like the Tories are running a weak candidate who got clobbered in the Markham byelection and in terms of demographics this area has gotten more Liberal-friendly over the years. They will take this by about 1,000 votes or so.
07 10 06 Old Willowdaler
Well since I guess I have to take a stand at some point might as well dive right in. Liberal by less than 1% Tory has just done so much damage to the PC's that frankly this should have ended up into PC hands by 5-7% but McGunity is in Majority territory, the NDP has been drowend out and is not a factor here and with no incumbent... I frankly think it could go either way by 500 votes. Sticking my neck out on this one -LIBERAL
07 10 02 Old Willowdaler
Richmond Hill still has a substantive WASP/British community as well as Italian. Add to the Mix the very large Chinese community along the Bayview Corridor and it should go Liberal. The oldtime crowd will not support the funding with tax dollars of religious schools and they are more likely PC voters. They abandoned the PC's in 1985 and ended 42 years of PC rule over the extention to the Catholic Board of high school funding. Does anyone think they will for one second say heck lets give everyone else my tax dollars to promote relgious learning. I DO NOT think so. The Italians by a large margin TEND to vote Liberl 70-75% but are NOT monolothic most that i know are also NOT happy at the prospect of dollars they feel could come to the seperate board or stay in the public board going elsewhere they will likely stay in the Liberal fold. The chinese are like the rest of the community they dont vote 100% one way or the other. True they are more likely to vote Liberal just as the Italians. They are by and large NOT religious either and send their kids either to Montessori or Private school if they can afford it and those who can't or dont think its an issue are in the public system. They are NOT likely to vote for the PC's on the funding issue. SO based upon those factors I think its more likely to go to the Liberals. I was suprised how close this riding is 46% v 45% so despite all my prognositication above I still think its close and will be less than 2% either way. Oh and the suggestion that Jews will vote against a Persian is utter CRAP and shows little understanding of the community. A little credit is due here as most of us can see the difference between the Persian people and that Idiot they have for a President (Myself I suspect he is related to George W Bush back in his family tree both are about as smart as the other)
07 09 24 RyanOntario
too close to call , first off there is no incumbent mpp and this is the first time this riding has existed provincially. Was part of a pc riding provincially and federally a liberal seat.
As both main candidates haven't been elected before and each party polling close in this area its likely close here. unsure if Alex Yuan or Reza Moridi has the advantage so far.
This is one riding to watch on election night to see where it ends up.
07 09 19 A.S.
If seat boundaries had changed an election earlier and the present Richmond Hill existed in '03, it would have gone Liberal--no, not by the .7% notional margin, but something more like 7%, or even twice that. Yes, there's private-religious-school-fundable voters around the edges; but not enough to make their particular kind of difference, necessarily. And how typical is it for a large Chinese community to vote PC at the provincial level? I thought they're the ones who swung Markham Liberal red, right? Only the non-incumbent nature of the seat leads me to withhold a prediction...
07 08 20 Japhtastic
It's almost like you expected to be under whelmed by the Tory's, ahem, Tories nomination of Alex Yawn, sorry. . .?Yuan? fresh off his defeat in the Markham by-election to Michael Chan. I wonder if the John doesn't regret the decision to not give someone with a bit more profile the nod. I'm sure everything looked different a few months ago when he made the deal. And how welcoming can Richmond Hill be to a guy who would have rather won somewhere else? Anyway, some people say candidates run once to lose, but they typically tend to run in the same riding afterwards. What Alex couldn't do in Markham, he won't do in Richmond Hill either - win. Alex just doesn't present well.
Of course people will talk about the Chinese community in the riding and Reza isn't Chinese at last check. But Richmond Hill is surprsingly diverse (for those of you who don't get north of Steeles) and Reza shares the same immigrant success story with most of the community, that many third and fourth generation families in the riding can relate to. Reza is well presented, articulate and I ran in to him at a coffee shop in frickin' July where he was introducing himself to anyone. I think Alex still has signs up in Markham. Two different candidates. Two different work ethics.
So barring John himself strutting in to Richmond Hill and throwing dirt at Reza hoping to pop him in the eye over, ahem, nothing. . .this one I bet will be wicked close. . .but Liberal. Klees almost lost it in the last campaign and high-tailed it further north where Tory gold can be mined.
07 08 13 JC
First off I agree with King of Kensington. Second, this riding does not have a large Jewish community like Thornhill does, if anything this riding has a large Chinese community in which they typically vote PC at the provincial level. So having that said it will be interesting to see if this riding does go PC or if in fact it does go Liberal.
07 05 18 King of Kensington
I find Mayor McCheese's comments very offensive. This is a PROVINCIAL election and foreign policy is going to have ZERO effect on how people vote, whether Jewish or non-Jewish. The idea that Jewish voters are going to vote Conservative to protest an Iranian Liberal candidate is outlandish.
Still this is a riding to watch - the 905 belt is a swing area and can go Liberal or Tory.
07 04 08 Mayor McCheese
With no incumbent this riding is to close to call right now. The Liberals nominated a well-educated and intelligent candidate in Dr. Reza Moridi of Iranian/Persian decent, however questions remain how well he will do. Iranians/Persians have traditionally been disenfranchised in politics and most haven?t voted in the past. Will the Iranian/Persian community come out to support one of their own, which Moridi may need to win this riding? Will the large Jewish community in this riding that traditionally votes Liberal vote for a candidate of Iranian/Persian decent? The Jewish people have been known to have long memories and it wasn?t to long ago that that the President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad publicly announced, ?Israel must be wiped off the map?. Will the Jewish community vote against an Iranian/Persian candidate in protest regardless of the qualifications of the candidate or the party platform? Other questions remain as well. This area has been traditionally PC at the provincial level but was this because of Frank Klees popularity or not? Is Richmond Hill Frank Klees supporters or PC supporters? It will be very interesting whom the PC?s will nominate in this riding.

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