Election Prediction Project
Ontario Provincial Election 2003

Oak Ridges

Last Update:
3:14 PM 01/10/2003

Prediction Changed:
3:14 PM 01/10/2003

Political Profile:

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Liberal Party:
Helena Jaczek
Progressive Conservative:
Frank Klees
New Democratic Party:
Pam Courtot
Green Party:
Steven Haylestrom

Frank Klees

Federal MP:
Bryon Wilfert

1999 Result:
1999 Prediction

30432 59.99%

17427 34.35%

1957 3.86%

914 1.8%

2000 Federal Result:
2000 Prediction
Plurality21 344
Bryon Wilfert
33 058 59.4%
Bob Callow
11 714 21.1%
John Oostrom
8 409 15.1%
Joseph Thevarkunnel
1 623 2.9%

Demographic Profile:

(1996 census)


Avg Household Income

Labour Participation68.60%

Canadian Citizen

Canadian Born60.84%
Ontario Born55.10%
Visible Minority28.75%

First Language

Avg Dwelling Value$312747

College/Trade School26860

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01/10/03 Mike
This riding has changed so much over the past four years. The growth in Richmond Hill, Markham and Stouffville will make it impossible for Frank Klees to get re-elected. These new voters, of which I am one, have different priorities and values than the Tories. As well, incumbency has little resonance where I live in Richmond Hill since this will be the first time my neighbours will vote in this riding. Interesting, in the past four years I have never received any newsletters or reports from my MPP - until the election was called. In my mind, it's a little too late now and if what I hear among my neighbours at the local park is true, Helena Jaczek will be our MPP on Thursday.
30/09/03 Tory in Dixie
Email: canadien76@hotmail.com
The one time possible contender for the Alliance leadership should barely survive if the polls hold up. Even with the eight point liberal swing that might occur province wide, Klees has a strong conservative base, and that will solidify over the next two days as voters consider the potential for tax increases under the Liberals, a point that will greatly reasonate in this riding.
30/09/03 Full name
Oak Ridges will remain a Frank Klees PC riding dispite Liberal gains throughout the 905. He has been seen campaigning hard throughtout the riding for the last 6 months,and has earned his fair share of lawn signs and retail supporters (especially in Streetsville where he opened the only local campaign office). His work in Tourism and Transportation has been impressive and combined with solid constituency homework make him bullet proof to Liberal slings and arrows. A reduced plurality sure but a win nonetheless and maybe the prospect of new leadership for a renewed PC Party in Ontario.
29/09/03 TH
I think the Liberal candidate would win this riding as she is from the health care circle and the health is a major issue in this election.
28/09/03 red girl
It is highly unlikely that Mr Klees will survive the crumbling of Tory support. If he wins it will be by only a thin margin. Your previous entries fail to realize a number of factors. Voters in this riding are not at all pleased by the state of the classrooms which are over-crowded in most areas. Nor are they pleased by the privatization of the Markham Stouffville hospital. They also fail to see any real protection for the Oak Ridges Morraine. Also, do not fail to take into account the large number of immigrants in this riding who generally have voted Liberal. A new group of immigrants are looking to the NDP as the only party that takes their concerns seriously. I am speaking of the Muslims who count for about 4000 votes in this riding. Mr Halestrom has failed to attend virtually all all-candidates meetings. He is inarticulate at best. Do not credit him with 6 or 8 percent of the vote. This is ridiculous. Look for the NDP to inrease their percentage by 3 or four times the previous vote.
28/09/03 BB
Although I'm not a member of any political party and have voted everything from NDP to Liberal to PC at various times in the past, I feel that the Tory campaign this time around has the potential to really boomerang on the incumbent. For example, Mr Klees is running ads saying that the Liberals support teachers' strikes and want to keep children out of the classroom. Surely even those among us who are core Tory supporters can't believe this claim; Mr Klees' credibility does a real nosedive and many of us are turned off.
23/09/03 Frank H
Frank Klees is well known locally and I don't believe the absent Minister allegation will stick. He's absent cause he's doing his job and I don't think the riding is suffering. In fact the advantage of having a minister represent the riding is obvious to most voters.
20/09/03 Craig
Latest polls all suggest the Liberals have about a 10 point lead even in the 905 area (15 to 20 province wide). Since this is a more centrist suburban area, and the Liberals have a strong candidate, I have decided to call this riding a Liberal pickup (along with all the other ridings in York Region). Current prediction: Jaczek 50%, Klees 40%, Haylestrom 6%, Courtot 2%, others 2%.
03/09/03 Distant Observer
This is the last incarnation of Oak Ridges riding, with Richmond Hill set to have its own Federal constituency (deservedly) by the spring election next year. So this prediction is missing the pleasure of having a truly open race in a 'new' riding. My aging family lives in the riding in Richmond Hill, so these comments apply mostly to that section of the community. They are deeply concerned with health care facilities in general, and in particular with York Central Hospital and its ability to cater for/with increasing demand. A sense that the area (especially Yonge St.) is become overdeveloped is mixed with general uncertainty about the rate of change in the community. Demographically, the new riding differs significantly from 1995. Two major questions arise out of this: 1) Are the new citizens of the constituency registered to vote? This is a question which can't be taken for granted any longer. And 2) Who is mobilizing them? Although I am a long way away (but will be in the area on election day), I can't help but think that a significant effort by the Liberals to motivate the 43.5% of the electorate who didn't vote last time (slightly shocking - a greater number of abstentions than the provincial average...either they are - disillusioned/disengaged [Liberal/NDP voters?] or satisfied/disengaged [Conservative voters?]) could see them make considerable inroads on Frank Klees lead. On a visit with family in 1995 I attended Klees nomination meeting and was struck even then by his "Sunshine Boy" quality (the words of one of his supporters, not mine) - too slick for his own good. Now that the significant effect of Harris' leadership has gone, I wonder if his persona (and Ernie Eves') has capacity to motivate his core voters to come to the polls. This riding, more than most, will swing on the basis of old fashioned efforts to get the vote out.
02/09/03 Craig
On paper, this riding looks like a Tory safe zone, with 60% last time and a riding smack in the middle of the 905 area. Local issues will be the cornerstone of the race here though, and Helena Jaczek has a lot of support. There are a lot of votes at stake here in a fast-growing area, and a lot of opportunities could develop for both Jaczek and Klees. The Oak Ridges Moraine development plans could also hurt the Tories as they are sure to be exposed in the debates. It is a tough one to call, and I think it will be a nail-biter! Current prediction: Jaczek 44%, Klees 42%, Haylestrom 8%, Courtot 3%, others 3%.
18/06/03 Christine M
I’m not sure why you don’t have this riding listed as at least too close to call. Based on you own web site the majority of submissions that have been posted this year are in favor of Jaczek. I have lived in Richmond Hill (south west part of the riding) for over 10 years and have participated in that towns Heritage day for some time. Last week end June 14th both Klees and Jaczek had booths there, from watching both camps all day it was obvious that Jaczek was the favored candidate. Out of the 20,000 visitors in attendance I did not see one that responded negatively to her, as opposed to reactions received by the Klees camp. This event represents a microcosm of what is to come in Oak Ridges, Liberal support, Liberal Win.
13/06/03 Margaret McLellan
The current polling reveals the Ontario public, including Oak Ridges riding, is ready for a change. As Eves stumbles from one self-imposed disaster to the next, grim-faced Klees seems increasingly deflated. Dr. Jaczek on the other hand is a fresh, intelligent voice balanced by experience and leadership.
27/05/03 CG
Grizz what you need to understand is that Eves indecision on the election call will only mean one thing, Liberal Sweep! Jaczek’s office has been up and running for months and there is no sign of Klees in Oak Ridges. Klees the absent minister should have pushed for a spring election, the longer they wait the better for Liberals. More time to point out the pot holes in Eves road ahead.
21/05/03 Craig
This one's tough. Yes, there was a huge Tory majority in 1999. The Tory vote should hold up in the rural sections, but the suburban areas seem to be swinging Liberal in the 905 area. At this moment, I think a Tory win is still in the cards, however they cannot afford to lose any more ground in the polls or this seat will fall to the Big Red Machine as well. Predicted results: PC 44%, LIB 39%, Green 11%, NDP 4%.
20/05/03 Grizz
Almost 60% of the vote last time, and a sitting minister. This smells like another Tory victory to me.
16/05/03 CG
I have recently received a Masters degree in political science, which is to say I have studied politics’ and political trends in great depth. I currently live in the riding of Oak Ridges and it seems at this time the only candidate who is running a campaign is Helena Jaczek the Liberal candidate. I have received phone calls from her team and drive by there office on Yonge street everyday. I have yet to see any sign of a Klees campaign other than his GO stop announcement about the smart card. This is not to say that Jaczek is a shoe in, unseating a Minister is difficult work. However, if Klees continues his absenteeism and Jaczek remains the only show in town this ridding should go Liberal in the coming election.
29/04/03 Alexander Graydon
I find it odd how much the people here (all be it only four posts) blindly support Frank Klees. I will submit that the man has been a large voice in the Legislature and would make a good candidate for the next leader of the Conservative Party. But that's not what this race is for. Helena Jaczek has a lot of experience as York Regions Health Officer and is quite possibly the Liberal's best shot to take a seat in York Region (aside from Sorbara). She has put, and is, putting in a good campaign and basically deserves this riding. My prediction, it'll be close, but the Liberal Party will squeek through this riding.
11/04/03 L. Putnam
Email: laurenceputnam@hotmail.com
My parents' riding, so I've spent some time here. The last time I attended question period at Queen's Park, Klees rose to answer a question directed to then-Premier Mike Harris. Klees was met with opposition cries of "Premier-in-waiting!" Despite his abortive run at the CA in 2000 and the buzz about a Klees provincial leadership run in 2002 which never materialized, the people of Oak Ridges know they are well represented by Frank Klees, somebody who could easily mount a serious leadership campaign if he ever wanted to. Depending on the strength of the provincial campaign, Klees will take this one with 45-55% of the vote.
26/03/03 A.S.
Email: adma@interlog.com
Frank Cleese, Minister of Funny Walks? He's been an enigma at least since his phantom Canadian Alliance leadership run, and his current cabinet position contradicts rumours that he was going to call it a day at Queen's Park. And of course, never ignore the symbolism behind a riding named "Oak Ridges". But the electoral odds are still in Klees' favour, even if he's at the opposite ideological end of the Tory caucus from his neighbour Dave Tsubouchi. Don't be surprised if it gets pretty close, though...
26/10/02 Craig
I will agree that the Tories should hold this seat after the next election. However, the margin will be not nearly as large. The main issues here will probably be urban sprawl and the environment, and the Tories still are considering the development of the Oak Ridges Moraine. I predict that the Liberals will be pushing a campaign here that attacks that message. It will be much closer than in 1999, but Tories to hold.
21/10/02 T D
I worked in this riding in 1999 even the teachers were voting for Klees. If the liberals think they have a shot they're definitely on something. Klees is too popular and does his job too well to not win again with near 60%. Klees has it in the bag, no problem

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