Prediction Changed
10:32 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Surrey North
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Arab, Rachid
Cadman, Dona
Canadian Action
Frank, Psam
Joehl, Alex
Kashagama, Dan
Keenan, Bernadette
Progressive Canadian
Langlands, Nikolas
Muhammad, Marc
Christian Heritage
Pielak, Kevin

Penny Priddy

2006 Result:
Penny Priddy
David Matta
Surjit Kooner
Roy Whyte
Nina Rivet
John Baloun
Kevin Pielak
Nikolas Langlands

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 13 dls
I'm not really sure what to make of this riding. You have the Conservative party was ostensibly would be very popular in Surrey with its tough-on crime message. However, the NDP are polling very strongly in the Lower Mainland and they released the anti-crime measure in Surrey a few weeks ago.
Cadman is a total X-Factor here... here names carries a lot of weight, both the pros of being associated with Chuck and their crusade against crime. But cons of this whole Harper-Cadman affair, which she is getting lampooned in the local press about.
Personally, I think that local campaigns arent as important as national ones, and given the Conservative numbers in BC I'd expect them to pick this up... However, if any riding bucks the trend its likely Surrey North.
08 10 12 DL
This is a hard riding to predict. On the one hand, the conventional wisdom is that Dona Cadman would be a draw for the Conservatives - but she has also come across as a bit of a buffoon after never getting her story straight about whether or not the leader of the party she is running for tried to bribe her dying husband - and as of today this story is back in the news - not good for the Tories.
I don't know much about the NDP candidate, but this is one of the poorest ridings in BC and both provincial ridings that make up Surrey North went NDP by massive lop-sided margins last time and of course the NDP won here by almost 7,000 votes last time.
I think that the NDP will hold on just as a result of pure party loyalty and identification.
08 10 03
The NDP would have easily held on here if Penny Priddy were running again. (She was even endorsed by Dona Cadman last time.) But she's not running and the NDP have nominated a weak, low-profile candidate. Dona Cadman's got a lot of baggage but the Cadman name still counts for something here. This is a working-class but socially-conservative riding. A strong Tory campaign in BC plus a weak NDP candidate will result in a narrow Cadman victory.
08 09 25 Porter
Lot's of continuing negative coverage for the Conservative candidate. Local media are now asking ‘Where's Donna?’ since she refuses to do any interviews or return phone calls. I guess this one might depend more on the strength of the other candidates.
Reference: ‘Where's Donna?’
08 09 24 PY
Curiouser and curiouser...Tory handlers rushed to get Dona Cadman out the door at the end of a rally in Surrey on Tuesday. She's got to have some pretty thick skin to be able to survive this latest fiasco, but I'm afraid that eventually things will begin to take their toll on her. I wouldn't put her campaign on deathwatch, but like it or not, I doubt the national media outlets are going to give her a free ride. Whither the other candidates? Who knows?
08 09 21 LJ
Penny Priddy's NDP incumbency will not be enough to save the inexperienced new NDP candidate. Dona Cadman has great name recognition, and inherits Chuck Cadman's reputation for being sensible, modest and honest. The Conservatives are currently the best organized and most visible in terms of signs. Penny Priddy likely would have won again, but the various unknowns running for the Liberals, NDP, Greens and CHP won't be able to match Cadman.
Cadman has weathered the bribery kerfuffle by sticking with the Conservatives -- I think most voters will conclude that whatever happened was sketchy, but probably not really a bribe. Dona Cadman could win the riding (and earn a high profile in Parliament) as an Independent like Chuck, so she's not sticking with Harper and the Conservatives out of self-interest. If she's satisfied that whatever happened wasn't enough to shake her faith in the party, I think that will be good enough for most people.
08 09 20 WC
Despite the NDP leanings of the riding, I think the Cadman name will rule the day. Chuck Cadman was well liked in this riding and his wife will likely ride on his coat tails. Let's not forget that Dona Cadman and Penny Priddy are good friends in their personal lives. If Penny were running again I'd give this to her. Surrey North is an interesting riding in the sense the voters tend to look more locally than nationally. You can see this in its wild swings from PC to NDP to Reform, to Alliance to Conservative to Independent to NDP....shall I continue.
Dona has the biggest name recognition bar none. The Liberals have fielded a minority candidate, but Surrey North does not have as large of a visible minority population as the other Surrey ridings (with the exception of South Surrey, cloverdale). I lived in this riding for the last 25 years....believe me it's going to Cadman
08 09 18 E. L. Smerl
2. Dona Cadman's name brings Harper's bribery scandal and his suppression of political free speech (via S.L.A.P.P. suit) to mind. That means he is extremely unlikely to visit this riding. That will be noticed and in the House of Commons her name will be a reminder of the bribery scandal every single day, so expect her campaign to be sabotaged by the Harperbunker.
3. Incumbency is a powerful thing.
4. Look at the vote margins.
08 09 16 PY
I definitely jumped the gun in predicting then-incumbent Penny Priddy would win. But fast forward to now and according to the Pundits' Guide website, the Liberals have a candidate and the NDP has a new one. Unfortunately, it's still TCTC because they may not be able to sustain themselves through their own local campaigns alone and will likely need a boost from their respective national campaigns.
With the retirement of Priddy, there's a chance that Dona Cadman could survive the scandal that continues to haunt her, so this should promise to be an intriguing race. If the Greens field a compelling candidate, then it'll be the ultimate toss-up...
08 08 14 R.O.
This riding has to be one of the oddest races in the country made more unusual by the surprising announcement that Penny Priddy will not run again after serving only one term as mp. It was already a very unusual race after the Cadman allegations which made nationwide headlines and fact Donna Cadman is the conservative candidate in this riding. As to where this riding ends up is anyone?s guess a high profile ndp candidate might be able to hold the seat but without one it could return to the conservatives. But in a race this unusual making a solid prediction here would just be wrong cause clearly anything could happen.
08 07 16 BLJ
With Penny Priddy announcing that she will not run again, the seat is wide open although the demographics still lean NDP. The federal NDP vote has been down almost 1/3 in BC and will the Cadman name still resonate?
08 07 09 PY
It begs belief that Dona Cadman has essentially called her daughter a liar and Tom Zytaruk evil in disavowing ever talking with him. Her campaign is over before it ever began and this face-saving exercise simply won't work. Regardless of whether her name will ultimately be on the ballot, Penny Priddy has all but wrapped Surrey North up and she can again thank her dearest friend.
08 03 28 Stevo
NDP hold, easily. I think everyone is creeped by this. Creeped out by the possibility of Conservative insiders bribing a dying man to vote their way. Creeped out by the strange way in which Dona Cadman made this public years after the alleged fact. Creeped out that this appears to pit late-husband against wife, since Chuck Cadman himself denied any inappropriate incentives presented to him by the Conservatives back in 2005. Do the people of Surrey North really want to be reminded of this every time they get an MP flyer in the mail? No way. Dona Cadman will lose to the very woman she endorsed in 2006.
08 03 03
No way will Dona win this, after running for a party she claims bribed her husband and upset her tremendously. This shows that she's not a woman of integrity. Plus, she endorsed Priddy last election, but now is running against the woman she endorsed? That's absurd. Priddy hold.
08 03 03
I would like to withdraw my scathing remarks about Dona Cadman. She recently clarified that she honestly does not believe Harper was involved in the 'Cadmanscam' and that the two individuals who allegedly bribed her husband was not under Harper's knowing. This clears up why she is still running for the CPC - that she still believes in the party's principles and that she supports the leader.
Still, I stand by my belief that this whole affair probably hurt her chances rather than helped her. However, the Cadman family name is well-known in this riding by now, and that could bring Dona Cadman to a win. Maybe.
08 02 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
So Donna claims that Chuck was offered a million dollars life insurance policy to vote with the conservatives to bring down the Martin government. This is causing quite a stir and may provoke a criminal investigation. Do you really think Donna is going to get any help from the CPC now (under the assumption she is still allowed to run for them). No chance! NDP hold!
08 02 23 BJ
Surrey North represents the strongest NDP area within Surrey. Previously this was not a Conservative seat but a ‘Chuck Cadman’ seat. If Dona Cadman had run in 2006, the race would be quite close, but Priddy is now an incumbent in a strong NDP area and the ‘Cadman’ effect has worn off. NDP hold.
08 02 21 Sam
Dona cannot and will not take the riding. Not only will the Cadman vote not mean much with the voters of Surrey North, but as others have already pointed out below, SOUTH ASIANS overwhelmingly support Penny who have NEVER EVER lost an it for school board, council, Provincial legislature and now Parliament.
08 02 18 John
Look who's running for the Conservatives: Dona Cadman. Conservative pickup for sure.
07 12 01 A.S.
Well, Surrey North *was* a Reform/Alliance stronghold--that is, if one considers Reform/Alliance as a big-tent grassroots-populist entity rather than as a simple Conservative proxy. With or without Chuck Cadman (and in 1993, it was literally without), they likely would have won here anyway, and not as marginally as it may appear. It may be NDP, but it certainly isn't a Vancouver East style of NDP...
07 11 10 binriso
I think this was more of a Chuck Cadman stronghold than Reform Alliance, without him it would have been a marginal seat at best. NDP wins again here.
07 11 08 R.O.
key riding to watch , as its an area which was once reform/alliance stronghold and also before that ndp terriotory . this riding could be an indicator of overall voter impression of harper government in BC. but both Penny Priddy and Donna Cadman are strong candidates and i'd expect a close race , name recognition and being in government could help out Cadman but ndp will try hard to keep this one.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
As much as I respect Chuck Cadman, and as great of a guy he was, being his wife does not mean much. I mean no disrespect, but just because she was married to him, does not mean Donna Cadman has any qualities that would make her a good MP. Add to that a strong NDP presence in this riding, and a strong NDP incumbent, plus a number of Tories who feel the same way I do about Donna, and you get an NDP victory.
07 07 15 Roger
The comments just made are totally incorrect. As a proud Sikh I was amongst the over one hundred thousand people at the Sikh parade. The fact that I was there...does that make me a The fact that Sandep Pandher-Conservative candidate for Newton North Delta, Donna Cadman, Nina Grewal and James Abbott was there with a plaque presented to the organizers of the does not make them supportive of terrorists. As far as this riding is concerned....Penny Priddy has NEVER lost an election yet be it for school board, city council, the provincial legislature and Parliament. Beyond this, Donna is virtually non existent in South Asian media and events and the demographics have significantly changed from the time MR. Cadman was an MP....just look around in the riding and you will know what I mean.
07 06 29 Jay
With Dion and Layton proudly parading around in support of a Sikh parade yesterday and inadvertently supporting groups that hail terrorists (including the mastermind of the Air India bombing) as ‘great men’ (according to Global Television network reporters) and having their posters plastered all over their floats during their parade, I wonder whether that will hurt Liberal and NDP supporters in Surrey... and give the Conservatives a leg up in Surrey North and South?
There were also ‘youth groups’ wearing jackets with crossed maschine guns in an emblem supporting terrorist factions.
This is in Canada folks! BIG oops on Dion and Laytons part. After they found out, they still stood by their decision to attend the parade in fear offending these groups and losing out on 10,000 votes...
I'm not making this up. It happened and was in the newspapers and all over TV.
07 05 09 Efrem
Just like to point out that Peter Law's widow was re-elected to the Welsh Assembly last week. O.K, so Trish (like her late husband) is an Indy (well... Ind Lab really...), while Donna is apparently running under a party banner, but so what? Vancouver suburbia might not be as close-knit as South Wales (which is why you don't see a little blue ‘c’ above this), but if Trish can win (and not only win; get re-elected) off her dead husband's coattail's, why can't Donna?
07 04 18 Roger
Penny is not just an incumbent MP.....she's a veteran politician who has served at the municipal, provincial and federal level. Make no doubt about, Cadman will give Penny a run for her money, but watch for Penny to still come on top. Also, the riding demographics have changed significantly from when Mr. Cadman was an MP.
07 04 17 Steve L.
well of course i'm not denying Penny Priddy's records, Mr. / Ms. ? but incumbent political veterans come and go, like Ted White in North Vancouver and Paul Forseth in New Westminster-Coquitlam. big deal. now Penny Priddy is ostensibly a better incumbent than either Paul Forseth or Ted White (let there be no doubt about that), but she's now facing the Cadman name brand in Surrey, the same name brand that endorsed her in 2006. THAT's a big deal.
07 04 17
I understand where the person who wrote the last submission is coming from. However, as far as I know Penny has never lost an election yet. She was elected as a Surrey school board trustee, Surrey MLA (served in many portfolios), and Surrey City Council and is now an MP. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Penny has more political experience than all the Surrey MP's combined.
07 04 15 Steve L.
i must've been slow on these things. my previous understanding was that Priddy wouldn't have run against Donna Cadman had Donna declared candidacy. but hey things change i guess.
Chuck was no more a single-issue candidate than Donna, but Chuck won. so take that however you will.
07 04 07 Roger
There is no bias here. Watch for Penny to win. Cadman is a one issue lady...crime. The riding covers Whalley and Green Timbers, and these areas are solidly behind Penny who has more political experience than than most people. Also, Cadman gets zero coverage in the South Asian media and hardly attends any community events. This all spells to me a Penny Priddy win.
07 04 07 Roger
There is no bias here. Watch for Penny to win. Cadman is a one issue lady...crime. The riding covers Whalley and Green Timbers, and these areas are solidly behind Penny who has more political experience than than most people. Also, Cadman gets zero coverage in the South Asian media and hardly attends any community events. This all spells to me a Penny Priddy win.
07 04 01
There are many biased predictions here. I believe Dona Cadman has the best chance of taking this riding. One of Surrey's greatest problem is crime, and Dona Cadman's strong stance against crime will resonate well with the voters here. The CPC is also resonating with Asian voters as well, who are usually more socially and fiscally conservative. Take into account the Conservatives' surge in BC, and you will have a Cadman win.
07 03 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're going to add our voices to the chorus that's calling this for the NDP. Where we disagree with some of the other posters is by how much Penny will win. First we should keep in mind that the NDP's support has slipped somewhat. As well, Cadman's name holds a lot of weight and will draw in many voters. Other stated factors (working class riding, people don't like Harper, left-leaning righting, etc) will ensure Donna doesn't win. Bottom line, NDP win but not by that huge of a margin as last time (maybe 3000 votes).
07 03 28 King of Kensington
This will stay NDP. The Reform vote here was a populist protest vote and Chuck Cadman had a maverick appeal. But with a Conservative government in Ottawa voting for Cadman's widow is hardly a protest vote. Besides this a very working class riding with an NDP history and the results of the last election suggests that voters here are very much back in the fold, as Penny Priddy won by a very big margin.
07 03 27 Roger
Definite hold for Penny. Not only is Penny an incumbent but she is well liked by all people in the riding. With an ever increasing South Asian population in Surrey-North, watch for Penny to come on top. I simply cannot see Cadman getting any South Asian votes...she is simply non existant.
07 03 24 M. Lunn
This is a decidedly left wing riding so there is no way the Tories will re-take this. It will be closer this time due to Donna Cadman's name recognition, but people don't just vote for local candidates, they also look at the leaders of the party. In this riding Stephen Harper is not very popular and they are not going to want to see him re-elected as PM. Back in 2000 and 1997 neither Day or Manning had a chance at becoming PM so since everyone know the Liberals would win, one could vote for a strong local candidate, this no longer exists.
07 03 24
I think NDP win. Cadman may have a well known name and a good stance on crime but I don’t think the Conservatives represent the issues this riding faces.
07 03 22 DL
Easy NDP hold. The two provincial seats making up Surrey North gave over 60% of their votes top the NDP. Penny Priddy is very popular and Cadman is now ancient history. His widow has the same last name, but no poneytail.
07 03 22 B.O.
This is a very winnable riding for the Conservatives. However, it does seem premature in my opinion to predict a Conservative win here. Priddy does have the incumbent's advantage. In addition, Priddy was endorsed by the Conservative candidate in the 2006 election. No offence to anyone, but I do wonder why Dona Cadman is running against someone she endorsed as recently as the last election. This shouldn't be a slam dunk for Cadman, but should be a very close and interesting race.
07 03 19 Brian Appel
Dona Cadman is going to be running here for the Conservatives against Priddy. Cadman may not get the same vote that she'd have gotten had she run in '06, but I can definately see her taking this riding back for the right-wingers. Conservative pickup.

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