Election Prediction Project
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Surrey North

Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
12:55 PM 6/26/2004
Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:38 PM 6/25/2004

Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription

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Green Party/Parti Vert:
Sunny Athwal
Chuck Cadman
Jasbir Singh Cheema
Christian Héritage Chrétien:
Gerhard Herwig
Joyce Holmes
Jim Karpoff
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Dan Sheel
Canadian Action canadienne:
Roy Whyte

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Surrey Central (4.0%)
Gurmant Grewal
Surrey North (96.0%)
Chuck Cadman

2000 Result/Résultats:
17,115 53.79%
9,703 30.49%
2,475 7.78%
1,583 4.98%
943 2.96%

Surrey Central
(7/241 polls, 2370/97276 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

Surrey North
(150/171 polls, 57281/64461 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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24/06/04 Liu Bang
Email: [hidden]
Either Cadman or Karpoff, take your pick. Cadman is very well-regarded here and the NDP has deep roots in this part of Surrey. Polls show Cadman and Karpoff as 1, 2. It may come down to organization, but in any case the Liberals are definitely out of the race, and the Conservatives will lose big blocks of support to Cadman.
24/06/04 Mark R.
Email: [hidden]
It is very difficult for independent candidates to have the necessary and I might add, effective campaign machinery to get the vote out. The vote will be split on the right between Conservatives and Mr. Cadman with the beneficiary largely being the NDP candidate. Mr. Karpoff has a good shot at winning in a 4-way race, particularly with NDP support nearly triple what it was in 2000. NDP win!
23/06/04 Surrey Observer
Email: [hidden]
Your prediction for British Columbia seats ignores the polling information gathered for Surrey North, where Chuck Cadman is still holding a sizeable lead amongst decided voters. If the so called "conservative vote" that you have tracked is split according to the results of the Compass Polling information, you will have to give Cadman 90% of that vote, which will put him in the 39% - 44% range, as a minimum. With only 5 days left to election day, the decided vote in Surrey North is firming up. You should review your prediction on this riding. If you agree with my view, then you would have to change the National and Provincial predictions to show the 1 seat for the "independent Cadman".
21/06/04 KJ
Email: [hidden]
Although there are apparently three strong choices in this election, I would be so bold as to suggest that most people are undecided because none of those parties really speaks to what Canadians are looking for. I think that Chuck Cadman, as an independant with views that will relate well to both Conservative and NDP supporters, will easily win in this riding. The only things that would prevent people from voting for Mr. Cadman, (in my humble opinion) is a protest vote, a lack of knowledge and/or a racial bias towards another candidate.
20/06/04 Victor A.
Email: hombresvic@hotmail.com
It's really refreshing to see that in many cases community involvment matters and a good job as an MP does matter too. Cadman's overwheling lead in the Compas' poll is no surprise, he's been one of the best B.C. Reform/Alliance MPs and as someone specified below his grassroot approach is really efficient, plus, he has this aura of a *good uncle* if you know what I mean. Karpoff's nd place is no surprise either, he worked really hard and clearly outsines weak Liberal and Conservative choice. I also watched CPAC's riding profile and Karpoff connects very well with people and espcially the troubles youngsters. This is a community that needs a strong leader so either Cadman or Karpoff would be good. I feel Karpoff will be really close on the final night since part of the CP vote will go for Cheema, but Cadman will still make it by around 5%.
20/06/04 WM
Email: [hidden]
Jim Karpoff was the MP for Surrey North from 1988 to 1993, and still got over 10K votes as Reform swept BC in '93. The Conservatives' failure to nominate Cadman will split their vote. The Liberals traditionally get about 10K votes in this riding, but they're not going to do it this time as Martin keeps sinking in the polls. Liberal voters identify with Karpoff over Cadman. Cadman might pull off an independent win, but party organization in getting out the vote counts for a lot. Look for a narrow win by Karpoff over Cadman, with the other candidates far back.
20/06/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
Conservative MP Chuck Cadman lost a nomination challenge to someone who sold a ton of memberships. The actual conservative nominee, Cheema, is a distant fourthaccording to this polling. Stephen Harper has long decried the practice of appointing candidates, and the CA/Reform has always allowed challenges to nominations. I don't believe Party brass was happy with the outcome, and though they cannot support Cadman publicly, when he is elected as an independent, he will be wearing Tory Blue within hours as he is welcomed back into caucus, something that will not happen with others who failed to win their nominations and challenged as independents. Cadman's case is one that should not have happened.
15/06/04 Dave
Email: [hidden]
Despite the poll (and remembering the only poll that counts is election day), I'll bet dollars to doughnuts (Tim Horton's, not Krispy Kremes) that Cadman loses this one. It's one thing to lead in the opinion polls, but it's another thing to get those people to the polling places. Face it, the candidates backed by a party have the machinery to get the vote out. Chuck couldn't even round up enough supporters to help him win the nomination (despite the apparent desire that was out there for him to be nominated). The big question, which I can't answer, is which candidate will get their vote out and take the riding. At the very least, I'll guess that this one's going to the Liberals or NDP (but I wouldn't rule out the Tory 'til the ballot counting is done).
15/06/04 Jerry VanEe
Email: [hidden]
Chuck Cadman will take this riding in a landslide. The people of Surrey North are upset about the way Cheema secured the nomination. He spotted flaws in the candidate selection process and exploited those flaws for his own personal gain. This kind of behavior will not be rewarded by the voters. He will drive people away from the Conservative Party and granted, they may vote Liberal or NDP. But Cadman has done a good job in his past two terms and people are ready to reward him for the effort.
15/06/04 Steven Hurdle
Email: [hidden]
A Compas poll of this riding had Cadman in the lead at 40%, so those who suggest he'll get a mere 10% appear to be off-base. I suspect he'll do less than 40% (Compas noted that those who can't speak English well enough to complete the survey were not counted, so the South Asian population of the riding was disproportionately unrepresented in the poll, which partly explains why Cheema was only at 12% in this poll) but Cadman may still win. Compas noted that this riding differed from all the others that they did profiles on in that people were obsessed over the local candidates and local issues, because of the Cadman situation, as opposed to the national campaigns. Cadman takes it on the strength of 7 years as one of the hardest working MPs on behalf of his constituents.
14/06/04 Steven Lloyd
Email: zeker@yahoo.com
A COMPAS poll of the riding has the following results:
Ind. Cadman - 40%
NDP Karpoff - 26%
Lib Sheel - 18%
Con. Athwal - 12%
So the most likely outcome is that Cadman will win, unless the NDP can move enough of the other voters to topple him. The conservatives obviously made a huge mistake in not nominating Cadman, they will struggle to get thier deposit back in this riding.
14/06/04 CM
Email: [hidden]
A Compas poll of Surrey North shows that Chuck Cadman would win this riding with 40% of the vote, with the NDP in second and Cheema way back in forth place. Be interesting to see if this holds up to election day.
Email: [hidden]
New poll on the BCTV news puts Cadman winning this riding in a landslide with Karpoff in second. I can't see why this board is still considering Cheema after all this decisive polling, put this one for Cadman.
11/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
According to the COMPASS poll of this riding, IND Chuck Cadman has a 14 point lead over the NDP in 2nd place, with the Liberals and the Conservatives trailing behind that in 3rd and 4th, so it looks like Cadman will be one of the few Independents elected on June 28. The Conservative party should have kept him as their nominee, because they are losing a seat here now.
11/06/04 Steve Lutz
Email: [hidden]
Cadman's likely victory could be one of the big stories of the 2004 election. He is one of a surprisingly large number of incumbent indepedents who will lilkely play a large role in shaping electoral outcomes. While most of these incumbents may play mainly a spoiler role, it looks like a Cadman victory may be in the cards.
11/06/04 neutral voter
Email: [hidden]
The recent Vancouver Sun newspaper June 11, 2004 confirms what has been happening to this riding. In the last election Chuck Cadman garnered 54% of the vote under the Reform/Alliance banner. That is an overwhelming majority in a multi-party race. He was able to gain votes from NDP and conservative voters. Previously, before the Reform party victory by Margaret Bridgman, it was held for many years by the NDP's Jim Karpoff, and before that for decades by Bob Wenman (Conservative). Provincially this riding has voted consistently NDP. Federally it has been conservative and NDP. It appears that the "real person" factor for Cadman will push him through to the finish line. Recent polls show him with 40% of the decided voters while runing as an independent. Jim Karpoff (NDP)trails him significantly, followed by Sheel (Liberals), and a distant fourth by Cheema (Conservative). According to the pollster Cadman has one of the highest ratings and popularity as an MP in ALL O! F CANADA. His anti-crime stance and the ability to connect with "common people" to resolve his constituents problem will gain him votes. He appeals to the conservative vote and at the same time to the NDP voters since he can relate to the "common man". Cadman is not a lawyer or true politician he is a crusader for the common people. Surrey-North is not a very wealthy suburban area. A consistent concern is crime and justice since it is home to inner-city Whalley with one of the worst drug and crime problems in BC. The voters of Surrey-North want to be tough on crime since Surrey has a large drug, prostitution, and auto crime problems. Surrey is the leader in North America for the most car thefts in North America by a WIDE margin.
It is clear that this riding is predicted to go Cadman (Independent) at this time. There is two more weeks to go but according to the pollster the support for Cadman is firm and solid. His problem will be delivering the vote out without an official party machine to do that. However, many conservative/reform supporters have joined him on the campaign trail to assist in his re-election.
It appears that Cadman will be the only elected independent in the June 28 election. The only way it will not happen is if Jim Karpoff (NDP) is able to ride the wave of rising NDP support federally in BC and beat Cadman by a very slim margin.
11/06/04 MJL
Email: leemj@eudoramail.com
Compas did a profile on this particular riding, which found Cadman with a strong lead.
IND: 40%
NDP: 26%
LPC: 18%
CPC: 12%
Jasbir Cheema is destined for the dustbin of history (or perhaps a footnote for getting the CPC's worst result in BC), Cadman will make it back in. This is the kind of election where independents can make a difference - many people are fed up with the bigger parties and machine politics.
Also, if one of the parties ends up with only 154 seats, Cadman will become the most popular MP in the country, if you know what I mean.
11/06/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Ipsos Reid poll of the riding has Cadman leading a large margin with the NDP a distant second, the Liberals a cratered third and the CPC at Green party levels
11/06/04 The Lobbyist
Email: [hidden]
Today's National Post/Global COMPAS poll is reporting that Cadman leads Karpoff 40-26, and that Cadman has the highest individual "electability" score of any candidate running in the marginal ridings dealt with by the study (almost twice that of Broadbent and Layton).
In addition, Karpoff is polling an incredible 11% behind his party.
Call it EP. BC is going to elect a member of every viable Canadian political party, and at least one independent in Surrey North.
11/06/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Chuck Cadman looks very likely to retain this seat, which is unusual as an independent.
Compas completed a riding poll with a sample size of 300 and a margin of error of 5.8% with the following results (24% undecided rate factored out):
Cadman (Independent): 40%
NDP: 26%
Liberal: 18%
CPC: 12%
More importantly, in the demographic which is most likely to vote, 2/3's of people older than 40 said they would vote vote for Cadman.
Compas president Conrad Winn stated that "He's [Cadman] in a class of his own" and Winn said Cadman has virtually clinched the win.
11/06/04 Je.sse Hoffman
"Anyone who thinks Cadman will get much more than 10% of the vote is clearly mistaken. Independents who lose their parties have no real organisation or ability to raise money." Well it just so happens that there is a COMPAS poll out of Surrey North that shows Cadman with a sizeable lead, and the NDP second. Here are the results: Ind: 40%, NDP: 26%, Lib: 18%, CPC: 12%. Yes, that's right, the Conservatives are in last with only 12%! The NDP is the biggest threat to Cadman, but I think the independant will hold on and take the riding
11/06/04 Thomas Cranmer
Email: letstalk@sympatico.ca
This isn't undecided, it's in the bag... for Chuck Cadman. Based on a survey conducted by COMPAS in today's National Post June 11, 2004), Cadman has a 14% lead on Jim Karpoff of the NDP. According to the poll, Mr. Cadman is crushing Jasbit Cheema, a Vancouver broadcaster who grabbed the nomination by signing up 1,500 new Conservative party members. This prompted Cadman to run as an independent.
11/06/04 Brad
Email: [hidden]
Well, I have to say I was a bit surprised by this... but not much. Grassroots work done tends to pay off, and here is the case in point.
"Constituency-Man Cadman Poised for Landslide: Defeated for the CPC Nomination, the Incumbent M.P., Now an Independent, Outpolls His Victor 3:1

Incumbent MP Chuck Cadman is poised to win the seat of Surry North, according to a COMPAS riding poll (N=300) conducted for the National Post, Global Television, and CanWest metro dailies. New Democrat Jim Karpoff is far behind with 26% of the decided vote compared to 40% for Cadman, as shown in table 1. Jasbir Singh Cheema-who won the Conservative nomination against Cadman in March of this year-has 12% of the decided vote, trailing the Independent candidate by a margin of 3:1."
06/06/04 R. Tones
Email: [hidden]
My family is from the riding and I attended college in Terrace and on my most recent trip up I have noticed that the offices of Miles Richardson and Andy Burton are quite vacant. The NDP offices in Terrace, Smithers, Kitimat, and Prince Rupert are open far earlier and far later than any other candidates. There are entire days the Liberal office in Kitimat isn't open.
The only canvassing done by Miles Richardson is done from Vancouver by polling companies and signals that they are thin on the ground. Mind you Andy Burton's campaign is almost absent.
If this campaign is about who can identify and pull their vote then the Liberals and Conservatives must be a little worried.
03/06/04 K NIcholson
Email: [hidden]
IND - Cadman office in Whalley has been an excellent example of grassroots politics working. I don't think losing his party will hurt him because I can't see votes of previous Cadman supporters jumping ship to Cheema. Cheema doesn't even live in the riding. Surrey North hasn't been a stronghold for any party in the past. I see Cadman's supporters staying loyal on June 28.
01/06/04 Mike Bailey
Email: [hidden]
Anyone who thinks Cadman will get much more than 10% of the vote is clearly mistaken. Independents who lose their parties have no real organisation or ability to raise money. If Cadman could win here with the PC's running against him, Cheema can win with Cadman running against him. I should not have to point out that vote splits of the right are nothing new in Canada, and that despite them Reform and the CA never had a problem winning here before. Also the Conservatives are now pulling away from the Liberals in the BC numbers. Sheel will get a respectable vote, but on June 28th, Cheema will be the MP.
Email: [hidden]
The only thing that Cheema has assured is a Conservative defeat in this riding. One thing the writers have to remember is that the majority of East Indians are Liberals, and despite the running of an ethnic candidate from talking to people in the community I still believe that most of them remain true as Liberals. In fact a number of them at my work said they were going to vote for Cadman because they did not like how Cheema's actions reflected on their community. I predict a slim Cadman victory, with the Liberals and NDP a close second.
25/05/04 Morty Hines
Email: durmatang@yahoo.com
I'm suprised no one has predicted Liberal here. If the old Alliance vote splits down the middle for Cadman and Cheema, the Liberals will win handidly. They are going to pick up a few seats in the lower mainland, this might as well be one of them.
25/05/04 Buffalo
Email: [hidden]
This riding is truly a dog's breakfast. Who would have predicted the Reform Party winning in North Surrey in 1993? Not many. For the same reason, no one should discount the support Chuck Cadman will receive. He transcends party lines by being true to an issue. He can either win it all or hand the seat to Dan Sheel of the Liberals. Conservatives may want to rethink their "open nominations" if they lose a seat here.
Email: [hidden]
There are 2 factors in this race. Chuck's popularity, and Cheema's support in the indo-canadian community (30,000 indo-canadian citizens in the riding, and Cheema was the News Anchor for their TV station). The indo-canadians supported Shinder Purewal(LIB)last election. This election with the favourable coverage Cheema's been getting in the indo-canadian papers and radio, that community should swing to the Conservatives. For Cadman to win he'll have to match Nunziata's performance in '97, and it seems that he will have a hard time pulling that kind of an organization (he still doesn't have a campaign office). Cheema will have to get out into the non-indo community and shake hands and knock on doors. However, the question will be, who will get there supporters out on e-day? Cheema seems to have the organizers, talent, money, and his party and leader on side. I predict a Conservative victory.
23/05/04 Mike D
The NDP have nominated former Surrey North MP Jim Karpoff. Apparently others were considering the NDP nod but made way for him. While a win isn't guaranteed, this puts the NDP in the running. My feeling is this is a tight three-way race between Karpoff, Cadman and Sheel. The Conservatives are definately in fourth here as their poll numbers are way down in BC, especially in urban ridings likes this one. The Liberals and NDP are dominating Vancouver and its near suburbs.
23/05/04 Ed Grey
Email: [hidden]
Danny reveals how little he knows about the dynamics in this riding. He is right, it is very difficult for independents to win in a federal election, but it does happen. And, when it does happen a couple to elements have to be present. 1. an extremely well-regarded and respected independent is running. 2. those carrying the banner of the major parties are virtually unknown. 3. the electorate is in the mood to "send a message". All of these exist in Surrey North. Jasbir Cheema has never lived in the riding, or in Surrey for that matter, and no one knows who he is in the community. Chuck has worked hard as an MP on issues important to the community and has earned a great deal of respect both inside and outside of the riding. Finally, there is a great deal of frustration with the nomination process in all parties Martin's appointment of candidates; the manipulation of the process by the Grewal's and the instant members recruited by Cheema. Still too close to call, but Cadman can and may indeed win this race.
19/05/04 Danny
I think that Jasbir Cheema will win the riding simply because people that vote in the federal election always vote for the party. Local candidates are non-factors in federal elections.
19/05/04 Danny Joseph
I disagree with Chuck Cadman being able to win the ridding as an independent. Independents almost never win becasue they have no party platform to run on. 90% of people that vote ultimetly vote for the party or the leader. So the idea that Chuck can win is not possible, and is rather a wasted vote. If Chuck was so popular how come he only had 120 people show up to vote at his nomination after he put a plea in the paper for people to come out and support him.
18/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Latest news, Chuck Cadman has cancer but still plans on running. I am not sure how this will effect the results, I suspect in his favour as it is more media for him and adds that courage in the face of adversity thing to his campaign
/05/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Chuck Cadman may be able to do the impossible and win as an independent. Now has the details of 10 of the 16 riding assoc members quit to join Cadman inculding the riding pres.
10/05/04 Initial
Email: [hidden]
I simply cannot see Cheema winning this riding. At the very least Cheema's selfish motives will ensure that another party gains the riding through vote splitting, if not Cadman himself. I have a feeling Cadman will pull this off though. During the last election I heard people say "I don't care for his party, but I like him," and it was this kind of support--not the party label that attracted voters. Just look at the historical civic and provincial elections in Whalley, it's been NDP or another left wing party winning handily most of the time. The assertion that Cadman got elected because he was a conservative in Whalley of all places is absurd. The people simply like him. It seems that the only votes that Cheema will likely get are ethnic block votes, but to Cheema I'm sure this is nothing new.
05/05/04 Bernard
Email: Bernard@shama.ca
I still predict that the CPC will win. But with the Cadman factor and coverage he has gotten, he should pick the far right wing fringe. Say 10%
The Greens should be good to take 10% here.
So, how does the rest of the vote spilt?
Much depends on who the NDP runs. The Liberals suffer from having few real names that want to be federal Liberals other than the Martin insta-Liberal anti-democratic appointtees. A smart NDP would convince someone like Harry Lali to run - a hard working self promoting politician that has been in cabinet. Someone of the political campaigning ability of Harry Lali should be able to take the NDP to 40% of the vote in this riding.
Without some NDP name, I figure the CPC to take about 35% of the vote, Liberals to take 25% and the NDP 20% - though NDP and Liberal could go the other way
01/05/04 Ed Grey
Email: [hidden]
Now that Chuck Cadman has declared this will be one of the most exciting and most-watched races in B.C. Local newspaper "The Leader" effectively endorsed Cadman on its editorial page after he announced and Cadman's Bill Good radio show appearance received high marks. The Liberal candidate Dan Sheel will now fade and CPC Candidate Jasbir Cheema will struggle to get his campaign off the ground and overcome the negative press regarding what the media are calling his sign-up of 1,500 members in weeks to defeat Cadman at the CPC nomination meeting. Dissatisfied and disaffected voters in this community will surely take this opportunity to send a message - count on another term for Cadman and put "Independent" Surrey North.
29/04/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
Chuck Cadman announced on 4/29/04 that he'll run as an independent. He probably can't put together the organization needed to win an election -- after all, he was outdone at the riding association level. He does, however, have the name recognition to draw several thousand votes. That's more than enough to tip this riding, the least conservative part of Surrey, from being a Conservative hold to a toss-up... but will it be a 2-way, a 3-way, or possibly even a 4-way?
28/04/04 George Pringle
Chuck Cadman is running so it will be a tight three way race between him the Tory and the Lib.
24/04/04 Ed Grey
Email: [hidden]
The result here will hinge on whether CPC incumbent Chuck Cadman runs as an independent. If he does, he will have the edge and likely win, if not, the Liberals could pick this up as Cheema and Cadman trade blows in a wild fight. If Cadman does not run as an independent, it will be a horse race between the Liberals and the Conservatives.
19/04/04 Travis
Email: t_lingenfelter@hotmail.com
I am saying this will go Conservative simply because the Liberals are down in the polls provincially and federally. Though if Cadman does run as a independent alot of Conservative members could end up voting from him, with the questionable way Jasbir Cheema won the nomination.
19/04/04 J. Windsor
To DL --
Come on. "With the NDP vote set to double or triple..." Let's take your best case scenario here; the NDP vote triples. Last time the result for the NDP was (actually less than) 8%. Tripling would give you 24% here. How do you plan on seeing the NDP win with 24%? This seat will stay Tory, no question about it. And btw, your characterization of Cadman and his voters as poor white trash is insulting. Typical NDP: "we're better than the people we serve and know how to spend they're money better than they do."
30/03/04 RWA
I can't buy that this is an NDP riding that voted for Chuck Cadman when the NDP got less than 8% last time. If anyone can challenge the Conservatives it's the Liberals but their polling numbers are going in the wrong direction right now, especially in BC. Cheema will win.
29/03/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
This one is very up in the air. northern Surrey is traditionally NDP and the provincial seats in it went NDP handily in 1991 and 1996. The big news is that Reform/Alliance/Conservative incumbent Cadman has been defeated for the nomination. Cadman was in the victims of crime movement and had a grey ponytail that attracted a lot of "poor white trash" votes. He lost to some Indo-Canadian operative who signed up thousands of instant Tories most of whom probably don't even know that they are Tories. It was all a very divisive affair and Cadman threatens to run as an independent. With the NDP vote in BC set to either double or triple compared to 2000 and with the Cons set to lose anywhere from a third to a half of their 2000 vote - this seat has to be a free for all. I think if the NDP can get someone good to run, it should be theirs!
29/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Chuck Cadman was defeated in the nomination battle on the weekend by Jasbir Cheema.
That fact that Cheema could get 1000 new members and win the nomination against a sitting MP means this is someone that can campaign and someone that win.
Chuck Cadman as an independent will lose - indepedents that can not win a nomination are can not win a riding.
The NDP has limited resources and I suspect are not going to be able to target this riding well, but if they are going for a Surrey riding, this is the one.
Liberals, no hope at this point as they are at their worst going into an election in BC since the 1988 election
28/03/04 Honest Guy
If Chuck Cadman would have won the nomination this would have been a CPC riding. He lost therefore the riding is wide open. There is a strong chance this will go NDP or Idependent if Cadman runs as an independent.
Unfortunate that the BLOCK voting at the CPC nomination cost them a riding.
28/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
The only unknown is whether or not the recently dumped Cadman will run as an independant. If he does - riding could go anyway. If Mr Cadman doesn't run, Jasbir Cheema will be the Conservative MP from Surrey North.
28/03/04 Ian King
Email: vancouverscrum@myrealbox.com
With incumbent Conservative MP Chuck Cadman losing the nomination to Jasbir Cheema, this one has been blown wide open -- especially if Cadman makes good on his musings about running as an independent.
27/03/04 Peter Kelly
Email: [hidden]
This seat was a Chuck Cadman seat. His personal popularity and integrity drew support all across party lines. But it was announced today that he lost the Conservative nomination for his riding. This seat was a Chuck Cadman seat, not a conservative seat. With the rebound of the Provincial NDP and gains by the Federal NDP under Layton, this seat should now go NDP.
20/03/04 Mike D
This area tends to support the NDP provincially, but they have had poor showings here since 1993. If the Conservatives nominate the sitting MP, anti-crime crusader Chuck Cadman, its game over for the NDP and Liberals here. But I hear Cadman may be dumped by the Conservatives as another candidate for the nomination (forgot the name) out-hussles him. If that happens, all bets are off, its a three-way race.
20/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
yet another one of the endless list of BC ridings that are just too close to call. BC will really decide the results of the next election like never before.
20/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
After redistribution, Surrey North has lost the eastern portion of the riding east of Hwy 1, which would tend to be somewhat more small "c" conservative. Under the new boundaries, Surrey North essentially encompasses the district of Whalley, which tends to be somewhat working-class oriented. This area has historically voted NDP with the last NDP victory in 1988 (an approximate 2,300 vote margin), albeit in an enlarged boundary area. Chuck Cadman, the current CPC MP, may not win renomination. The possibility does exist that this riding may turn into a 3-way race. Questions arise: Will a considerable portion of the former Reform/CA protest vote return to the NDP feeling uncomfortable voting for a conservative party? Will the Liberals increase their urban vote?

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