Prediction Changed
3:51 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Abbott, Jim
Aitchison, Betty
Moore, Ralph
New Democratic
Pendleton, Leon R.

Jim Abbott

2006 Result:
Jim Abbott **
Brent Bush
Jhim Burwell
Clements Verhoeven
Thomas Fredrick Sima

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 Jeff W
The local Green candidate has publically declared his support for the local NDP candidate. While this may add a few more votes, the Conservatives will still win. Jim Abbott has too long of a history in this riding and willl likely get re-elected until he retires. Once that happens, this riding will become more interesting.
08 05 31 T.V.
This is an interesting riding. Looking at the provincial results in this area, you'd think the NDP would be competitive, or at least getting decent results as in some of the neighbouring ridings. Instead, they get blown out by the Tories. Certainly some of that strength comes from Jim Abbott's personal popularity, but even if he called it quits, I don't think the NDP could make it up. As for the Liberals, this is one of about two dozen non-Alberta ridings that the party is least likely to win. Not going to happen even with a crushing majority, let alone present levels of support.
08 03 02 A.S.
1993 demolished NDP competitiveness here so utterly, not even Jack Layton could put Humpty back together again--then again, there's a bit of ReformAlliance anachronism about Jim Abbott continuing to score absolute majorities to this day, especially as it isn't necessarily *that* socially conservative a riding, and a touch of Nelson-esque winter-resort-town bohemia has been working its way east to places like Fernie, etc. But Abbott himself remains too formidable a ski hill for opponents to climb--at least, for now...
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Although historically a swing riding, this is a populist riding and unlike some other areas where the Reform vote has swung back to the NDP, Jim Abbott has held most of it and I see no reason why that would change in the next election.
07 03 28 JMc
I am originally from this riding, and I would be VERY surprised if it didn't go Conservative. If Jim Abbott runs again, the right-leaning bent of the area, combined with Jim's personal popularity, will make the only question whether he breaks 50 or 60%. Even if he doesn't run again, issues such as gun control will still put the riding in the Conservative column. The Stan Graham/Sid Parker era of competition is over, and the only way the NDP MIGHT have a snowball's chance would be if (a) Jim Abbott didn't run again, (b) Elk Valley labour regains its historic strength, (c) economic issues once again overtake social issues in the voters' minds, and (d) the NDP picks a VERY strong candidate.
The Liberals? Only if you travel back in time 40 years and the candidate's name is Jim Byrne.

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