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Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
9:33 AM 6/23/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:28 AM 17/03/2004

Constituency Profile
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Jim Abbott
Brent Bush
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Carmen Gustafson
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Ross Priest

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Kootenay-Columbia (95.1%)
Jim Abbott
Kootenay-Boundary-Okanagan (4.9%)
Jim Gouk

2000 Result/Résultats:
26,158 66.87%
5,901 15.09%
3,441 8.80%
2,277 5.82%
1,338 3.42%

(180/180 polls, 58134/58134 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

(12/199 polls, 2982/64232 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 G Purdy
Email: [hidden]
The incumbent, Jim Abbot, during his last term has been exceptionally low key in the riding. Many people are expressing the view that he has simply lost interest, or lost touch, with his riding. During past terms, he was very visible in the riding, soliciting the views of constituents on a frequent basis and generally making his presence felt. He has been running a very low key campaign to date. In previous election campaigns, Abbot has not faced a strong Liberal, or NDP, candidate.
The Liberal candidate, Ross Priest, is currently the mayor of Cranbrook, the largest population centre in the riding. He has been running a very strong, positive campaign. He has, in civic politics, enjoyed strong support from organized labour. The NDP candidate is basically unknown. It is possible that Priest will pick up much of the NDP support. Priest campaign apppears well organized, and he may be able to turn out his vote whereas Abbot may not. In the event of low voter turnout in the riding, it is quite possible that Priest will be elected.
28/05/04 BCM
Email: [hidden]
Ross Priest’s candidacy was miscalculated. His team hoped Martin’s popularity would increase Liberal-NDP cooperation observed in 2000 and pick up a few CPCs on the way. But the prospect of a Liberal or CPC minority has strengthened the NDP and Bloc Quebecois vote while diminishing Liberal support. Martin’s downward spiral and the underwhelming performance of regional Liberal MLA’s have soured local conservatives on the idea of moving to the left. Party members will stay true to their colors. Abbott’s vote is solid and he will win a 72% majority.
25/05/04 Jermaine Defoe
Email: [hidden]
It would appear from the COMPAS poll that the NDP is doing extremely well in the Kootneys and the North. This one should at least be considered too close to call: NDP 43 CON 36 LIB 17 OTH 4
25/05/04 Matt
Email: [hidden]
Abbott will win big again. This is an overwhelmingly conservative part of BC. Ross Priest may improve the Liberals showing in a small way, but it will still be a cakewalk. He good probably not do any campaigning and still win. There is still tremendous opposition to gun control and general government corruption to suggest any other party winning.
07/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Ross Priest, now that is a coup for the Federal Liberals. Though why is he doing it? I suspect he will lose because the CPC MP is not an irrelevant and weak one.
The area has traditionally had strong NDP ties because of all the mine workers, but Sullivan (and Sullivan Deeps reeks of a Howe Street mining project) is closed and the Fording Coal Mines have less people in them than in the past. Though the NDP could win a Kootenay riding if they ran Corky Evans.
Also this area is becoming the playground of Calgary and shifted further right because of it
30/03/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
This is one of the ridings in BC that has a history of voting for Social Credit federally, as well as provincially. This area, tucked between Alberta and the United States, would probably vote for the CHP before it would vote Liberal.
With the very popular mayor of Cranbrook, Ross Priest running as the Liberal Canidate, this riding will go to the Liberals. Ross Priest is popular in Cranbrook but is also popular throughout the riding as he has put signifigant efforts in the Cranbrook regional airport expansion. This riding had one of the largest increase in Liberal Party memberships in the Province and with Ross Priest running as the canidate, this riding will go Liberal.
23/03/04 JRFD
Email: [hidden]
With the NDP provincially 10 points ahead of the right wing BCLiberals I'd say that the NDP has a shot here. Brent Bush is exactly the right kind of candidate for this riding. I'm not ready to say the NDP will win but it's definately too close to call at this early date.
20/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
This may have been a big swing riding in the past, but it doesn't seem likely this time arround. A number of voters will return to their NDp roots but it will take ALOT of people to forsake the Conservatives (for whom they've been voting for over a decade) to permit an NDP victory. Granted the NDp have a candidate which may appeal to local voters, but we don't think it will go orange. Look for NDP gains in the Vancouver area or on Vancouver Island but not likely in the interior.
17/03/04 Arden N.
Email: [hidden]
With the NDP numbers returning to their pre-1993 levels, this is one of the party's best chances in the interior. The Kootenays have a long left-populist tradition, and the candidate, Brent Bush, presents a somewhat atypical profile for an NDP candidate (military background, etc.)that will play well here. His campaign seems to be off to a strong start, and a good national campaign will only help him.
17/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
During the 1970's and the 1980's the Kootenay East and Kootenay West ridings were traditional swing ridings between the PC's and the NDP. Several of the electoral majorities were within 1,000 votes. However, ever since 1993 the then upstart Reform party has received large majorities over its nearest rival. In 2000, the redistributed results show that the CA candidate received 66.8% to 15.09% for its nearest rival, the Liberals.
This time around the NDP will increase its support at the expense of the CPC but likely not enough to prevent a CPC victory.
16/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
NDP to take this seat. This is not a real ‘conservative’ area and as such, will return to its traditional voting trends and elect an NDP MP by a comfortable margin. This area is where the strong NDP support is concentrated. Look for an unemployed conservative MP.
16/03/04 A.B.
Email: [hidden]
The Canadian Alliance won this riding with close to a 70% plurality in 2000.
We have an excellent MP. There is no compelling reason to expect that either the Liberals or the NDP will be a factor here in the next election, certainly not enough to overcome Jim Abbott's personal popularity, nor his previous support.
Contempt for Liberal corruption, as well as the gun registry, are fervent and widespread within this riding.

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