Prediction Changed
10:33 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Burgis, Jennifer
DeSouza, Troy
Gordon, Brian G.
Martin, Keith
Ney, Philip G.
Canadian Action
Rhodes, Brad

Hon. Keith Martin

2006 Result:
Keith Martin **
Randall Garrison
Troy DeSouza
Mike Robinson
Douglas Christie
David Piney

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 12 James
I think the Conservatives stopped surging in BC about 10 days ago and a repeat of the last election is in order here. It will be close, but Keith will prevail here due to his high profile and lots of connections in the riding. The local political science pundits today also are calling this one for the Liberals. I would agree based on speaking with non aligned friends in the riding today.
08 10 10 sonarboy2001
Keith is popular in this riding, but the military voters / commuters will probably go for Troy. Desouza's idea for the overpass and removal of the transmission towers and the conservatives ideas for the military will push the torys over the top...
08 10 09 Ancastarian
Keith is a strong candidate, and in any other election I would call this Liberal without a second thought. However, the CPC is surging in BC, and despite their relative drop elsewhere, are still cruising much higher than in 2006. Martin scraped through then, but with Carbon taxes so unpopular in BC I dont think he can do it again. Green shift sinks him!
08 10 05 British Columbian
Gone fishing, your logic is simply faulty. Strategic voters won't vote for the NDP; they'll vote for Martin. Here's why:
Most people don't know as much as you do about provincial polls, the vote share last time, and projected vote share based on partisan vote share in the riding (which ignores Martin's Popularity and Randal Garrison's strength as a candidate). If strategic voters want to keep DeSouza from winning, they will simply vote for the incumbent Liberal, and there is going to be any significant strategic voting effect, it will be in favor of Keith. It makes no sense to vote against a popular incumbent to keep another party out. Last election, people were really mad at the Liberals and wanted to vote against them despite Keith, but this election not so much. Besides, while most NDP voters would prefer a Liberal MP than a Tory, the inverse is less-often true.
Keith is extremely popular, and enjoys support from voters who support him personally, die-hard Liberals and strategic voters. He wouldn't be able to hold the riding otherwise. Randall Garrison did well in 2004 and 2006, but he was a much better candidate than Jennifer Burgis (I saw both of them debate several times in 2004 and 2006). Any name recognition that Randall built in the last 2 elections is gone, and instead they have a weaker candidate who was switched from her own riding, while Randall is running in Vancouver Centre. (This looks a lot more like musical chairs than grassroots democracy, although few people will notice or care.
Voter turnout will be low this election. Keith Martin will garner roughly the same number of votes. Keith's current voter base is tough to crack, and while some Liberals might bleed to the conservatives, others left-leaning voters will vote for him for fear of a possible Tory majority. The Conservatives will build on the support they won in 2006, but not as much as the party province-wide and not enough to overtake Keith. The NDP will bleed votes to the Greens, and will place third. It's going to be close, but Keith will come out on top again.
08 09 27 Gone Fishing
This is a case where strategic voting if it ever works will deny the CPC a seat and support the NDP. Like most of BC the Liberals here are bleeding not just a little but open arm cut off with a chain saw kind of bleeding.
The real question for me in this riding goes back to what kind of voters put Keith Martin there in 2000?
49 per cent of the riding was Alliance back then.
2004 election after the rebranding of Dr. Martin as the liberal candidate he managed 38% of the vote. A gain of only 8000 votes for the Libs.
2006 election delivered only 34% of the vote to Martin.
Only 6 or 7 % of the vote has to shift for the Martin reign to end.
Where does that vote go is the answer to this riding.
If it splits left in any form (green, NDP) it looks like a NDP pickup but it could actually go blue given the ridings strong past alliance support. If an alliance supporter couldn't vote for the other three in 2000 and on to present, he sure as hell has no choice but CPC now.
08 09 27 Boy Waffle
I am not sure why people think Troy DeSouza has a chance. The Tories will place third here in 2008, just as they did in 2006 and 2004.
08 09 26 Mudkips
All of the NDP volunteers from SGI will be heading to E-JdF after the loss of their candidate their, and the fact that Martin is a very conservative Liberal. Look for a very large NDP presence door to door influencing the vote.
08 09 24 Jim
Keith martin has been a good constituency MP and is quite popular. That needs to be balanced against the very strong support for the conservatives by this heavily military (navy) riding. martin would win in a landslide if he had not jumped to the Liberals. The conservative candidate is not well known. It will be close but I think the riding will vote based on national defence issues. That's what got martin in and that's what will cause him to loose this one.
08 09 24 Bernard
I am not sure why people think Keith Martin has a chance. In the last election his was the third lowest percentage vote for a Liberal that won. 65% of the people did not vote for him.
For Keith Martin to win he has to accomplish several miracles. First off he has to have a perfect split in the vote to allow to win again like last time. Second he has to completely buck the trend in BC for the Liberals - he is not that popular.
2006 was the a good measure of how much his incumbency mattered in the election and that was not as good as people thought it would be. So why would be gain votes this time? What has he done that is going to change people's minds from last time?
If one in ten people that voted for him in 2006 vote for someone else, he will lose.
08 09 23 View Royal Voter
Keith Martin is a very popular, well liked mp regardless of party affiliation and he will carry this riding again. The Conservatives will be a distant third and the NDP will be second. Keith has served this riding well and the voters here realize this.
08 09 23 B Town
Jennifer Burgis will likely gain on Randall Garrison's total from last time. In Victoria the anger against the Canadian establishment Martin go to the New Democrats. Martin as a conservative Liberal and the Conservatives as government represent this establishment. A good campaign by Burgess could draw from both voter pools. All she might need would be a couple thousand more votes.
08 09 22 MCarl
The general consensus among the tim hortons crowd seems to be a Keith win again. Despite the recent national polls in the 'battle ground ridings', Keith is very popular and well known.
I predict a hold for the Liberals, but only because they have Keith Martin running here.
08 09 22 Gone Fishing
Dr, Keith Martin is another dead liberal walking.
The CTV / Strategic Counsel poll of Battleground ridings shows a strong Conservative lead here and this was a riding that Keith Martin won as a Reformer.
Keith Martin won this riding handily in 2004 before crossing the floor of opportunism. Unlike his buddy Scott Brison on the other coast, elections have gotten harder and harder for Martin as a Liberal.
12,000 was the gap in 2006 where he outpolled the Liberal 2:1
2,500 was the gap in 2004 as a Liberal
just over 2.000 in 2006
The Conservative surge in support seems to support that it will be harder for Martin to maintain his slim lead over the NDP. I look for Green vote if there is no candidate to get behind the Dippers not the Liberals and as they collapse further Martin supporters will chose between the left and right.
My gut feeling is that they go back to the Conservatives in a slim margin but it is too close to call.
08 09 21 msthinker
Jennifer Burgis is a strong campaigner. In each of the last two elections she has improved her Party's percentage by more than 15%. In this historically NDP riding she will take it, even against the perennial Keith Martin of many parties. The BC federal polls show the Liberals more than 10% behind where they were in the last election and although Martin won't be affected as much as others by this drop in support - he will be affected.
08 09 18 E. L. Smerl
Martin hold. He's so focused on his constituency that you simply never see or hear from him on the national level. Which pays off when the national party slumps in the polls. Martin could certainly be effective as Opposition MP, he was when he was with the Alliance.
That said, a rise in Conservative, NDP and Green fortunes in BC at Liberal expense will narrow his lead substantially. One of those three is going to have to hold their nose and vote for Martin to keep one of the others out.
08 09 18 R.O.
Keith Martin holds a significant incumbent advantage here and is well known but his new party is not really that popular in bc anymore. Polls and recent Vancouver Quadra by-election back that up. the riding itself is a 3 way race as each party very close here last election. Conservative Troy Desouza could possibly retake the riding this election but its going to be a hard fought race here as Keith Martin will prove hard to beat as he has held the seat since 93. but if liberal numbers do not improve he could be one of the few liberals left in this province and more than likely the only liberal mp from Vancouver island.
08 09 16 JC
This is Keith Martin's seat for as long as he wants it. I do believe however when he leaves this riding will likely flip. However, Martin is very much a maverick (he supports private health care) and is definitely representative of the riding.
08 09 15 B.A.S.
Keith Martin has been a good constituency MP and deserves credit. He has been a great supporter of the University of Victoria and will attract the student vote. Unfortunately, he will have to wear the unpopularity of Dion and will likely finally lose his seat this time around. If he had not crossed the floor, he'd be a shoo-in.
08 09 14 Dr J
Benard quotes a CTV-G&M poll that contacted 135 people in this riding. Anyone with any elementary training in polling knows that you need to poll at least 1000 people, completely at random, for the sample to be statistically significant. His projections for the riding are unreliable. Keith has broad, non-partisan support in the riding. He is very visible is arguably the best MP in BC at effectively working on behalf of all his constituents, and they know it. He has deliberately been slower at getting his signs out, but you will be seeing more shortly. The other candidates are largely unknown in the riding. And Jennifer Burgis is seat shopping after having failed in Saanich. The smart money is still on Keith.
08 09 14 Nicole
This is my old home riding, so I'll be watching closely on Election Night. As others have said, Keith Martin's personal popularity is always a huge factor here; it often overshawdows any party-based reasoning. That said, Keith's percentage of the vote has steadily declined over the years. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is also one of the few BC ridings that can honestly be said to be a three-way race and strategic anti-Harper voting will probably be a factor here. Too close to call.
08 09 14 KokuRyu
I drove out to French Beach yesterday, and there were Troy De Souza signs all along the way. In comparison, I counted 2 Keith Martin signs and 2 Jennifer Burgis signs. I know that signs themselves are not enough to win the election, but the De Souza campaign seems to be more motivated than the competition, who will also likely split the vote and allow De Souza to squeak in...
08 09 13 Gone Fishing
I agree with the majority of Bernard's comments concerning polling and the strong chance that this EDA goes to the conservatives. One thing I don't quite get is his comment that ‘of the FOUR major parties’ the Liberals stand the least chance of winning. The Green's are a best a minor player and until they actually WIN SOMETHING they are only a major party compared to OTHER FRINGE parties.
A Green win is possible here but calling them a major party is a bit premature.
08 09 13 John
I think Martin will keep this one--incumbancy advantage.
While the NDP came a close second last time, because they won't form the next government they won't get any swing votes to push them over the top.
And while it was something of a three way race last time, I don't see them closing the gap. Especially if some of the NDP support is nervous of a Tory majority and vote strategically to keep this party out of Tory hands.
08 09 12 The Dude Abides
Still too close to call, regardless of the current polls. The big factor is how much longer Martin can coast to a win on his personal popularity, which usually transcends whichever party he's a member of this week. As long as he hasn't given the electors of Esquimalt and area reason to do so, he might be able to squeak through once again.
08 09 10 Bernard
CTV and the Globe are doing daily polling in 45 battleground ridings in Canada, 10 of them are in BC and one of them is Esquimalt Juan de Fuca. The first three days have shown some very consistent numbers for the parties in BC. Using these numbers and applying them to Esquimalt Juan de Fuca, here is how the result would look:
* Conservative Troy Desouza - 19500 - 32.5%
* NDP Jennifer Burgis - 17000 - 28.3%
* Liberal Keith Martin - 14500 - 24.2%
* Green Brian Gordon - 7500 - 12.5%
Over three days they have surveyed about 1350 people in BC, of which 135 should have been in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca. The numbers are looking consistent and solid and so can be applied with some confidence to one riding.
At the moment things look very bad for the Liberals in BC in general and in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca in specific. In this riding things are shifting back to a traditional BC race of right versus left.
In my estimation, of the four major parties, the one with the lowest chance of winning is the Liberals with Keith Martin. He has coasted on his personal popularity and squeaked back into office the last two times with only around 35% of the vote. His campaign is much less in evidence and I wonder about how much money he has and how many volunteers. The polls show he is declining and I give him less than 5% chance of winning because his party is in decline and becoming desperate - the stink of desperation drives people away.
Troy is going to hate for saying this, the election is now his to lose. His competition is with the NDP to get soft Liberal voters ASAP. If he squeezes, he can push his totals over 20 000 votes. I estimate that he has a 55% chance of winning.
Jennifer Burgis has a chance to win, but only if she goes after Keith Martin supporters with a vengeance. She needs to be campaigning door to door and in the streets 24/7. Jennifer needs to make people understand that it a race between her and Troy and the Keith Martin is a nice guy that is no longer an factor in the election. I give here a 35% chance of winning.
The Greens should be able to pick up a lot of votes in this riding, the electoral math is very good for them here. A strong four way race could mean someone winning with less than 30% of the vote - this places it within the realm of a Green being elected. The Greens also need races where the incumbent MP looks unlikely to win. This riding is their second best chance of a win in BC in 2008. 5% chance for Brian Gordon becoming the MP - much better odds anyone would have given Keith Martin in 1993 when he beat Dave Barrett.
08 03 25 King of Kensington
Keith Martin may have his personal popularity going for him, but the byelection in the ‘safe Liberal riding’ of Quadra suggests that the Dion Liberals are in trouble in BC. A slight drop in Liberal support here could very well mean a pickup for the NDP.
08 02 10 A.S.
He may carry the Liberal label now, but Keith Martin remains a classic 1993-style libertarian Reformer at heart (as his recent principled challenge of human rights legislation proves)--indeed, his party shift might have paved the way for other ex-Reform zones like North and West Van to shift similarly in '04 and '06. The only reason Martin's last couple of mandates and margins have been tepid is that were it not for him, it's the kind of seat where Liberals would be a solid third--and it's hard to see how things can be any less tepid for him now. Yet weirdly enough it might not have been much less tepid had he stuck to the Tories. After all, had Keith Martin retired in '04, we might, surprisingly easily, here in Moe Sihota country, be looking at a 2-term NDP seat now
07 12 22 Left Coast
‘Liberal Maverick’ seems to be a contradiction in terms but we now have 2 in parliament (Keith Martin and Garth Turner). Martin wins here largely on personal popularity but I wouldn't say his re-election is a foregone conclusion, though he does have the edge. The NDP does have a strong base here and they came close last time - if Dion fares poorly in BC as leader they could take this.
07 11 06 tducey
Another riding that is to close to call, for now. Keith Martin has won 2 elections since becoming a Liberal but he remains popular. Still with the CPC candidate here running again as he did in 2006 I think he may make things interesting, could be a riding to watch on election night.
07 07 11 binriso
Well Keith keeps winning against all the odds. Conservatives are relatively weak in this riding compared to others and it looks like quite a bit of the Alliance/Reform vote was due to Keith's popularity. NDP would need some strong candidate, Dave Barrett-esque name recognition or something. But wait, Keith beat him in 93!
Keith might not win by much but it seems he has a solid support base that keeps him in Ottawa. Look for a 6th win in a row and a LPC hold.
07 05 07 Islander
If Keith Martin wasn't safe before the NDP nominated Burgis, he is now. Instead of running the same twice-failed candidate, the NDP is running another twice-failed candidate from the neighbouring riding. Burgis may be a reasonably strong candidate, but she was no stronger than Garrison, and she now has to start from scratch in terms of name recognition, with the added disadvantage of lacking credibility for switching ridings.
07 05 03 Tom
The NDP candidate will be Jennifer Burgis, who ran in Saanich-Gulf Islands last time. She's a good candidate, and I think she'll do well. I don't think Martin is completely safe, but he's probably favored.
(Randall Garrison will actually be running again, but in Vancouver Centre.)
07 04 25 Islander
Through thick or thin, as a Reformer, Alliance, or a Liberl, Keith Martin has won this riding. Even if the Conservatives win a Majority, they aren't the primary threat in the riding. Randall Garrison was a bright and articulate candidate but has lost twice now, which makes another run unlikely. The NDP will have to find a very strong candidate and would have to improve their support at the national level to pose a threat.
Although the 2004 election was a disaster, the Conservatives ran a strong candidate last election as well, but still came in third place, despite winning the federal election. They have a lot of ground to pick up
I don't see the cards playing out such that Keith Martin is unseated. His Liberal support is from die-hard Liberals, and the rest is support for him personally. It might be possible for the Conservatives to beat the NDP this time, but not to win. Another close race, but another Keith Martin hold.
07 04 14 Nick J Boragina
When making a prediction, the candidate counts, and the polls count. Both are saying this will be Liberal. Martin is popular here, and has proven he can win this riding as a Liberal, twise. On the poll side, his main opponent is the NDP, who's polling numbers in BC are down, not up from the last election. Unless the tories can knock him off (doubtful, as if there is a threat, greens and dippers will rush to save him) he will stay where he is.
07 04 07
Keith Martin has won this riding since 1993. He has won this riding running for different parties. All the times he has managed to win, this just shows his popularity, in 2006 he was the lone liberal on Vancouver Island, look for him to be re-elected this time as well, with the NDP numbers down, Martin will definitely be re-elected. Liberal Hold
07 04 06 M. Lunn
Prior to Keith Martin's win in 2004, this hadn't gone Liberal since 1968, so this is not a strong Liberal riding. Rather it is a Keith Martin riding as Keith Martin is quite popular here and the fact that he more or less stuck to his positions he has held since 1993 despite switching parties bodes well for him. The only real question is the NDP who are usually quite strong here and did have a close second last election, so they could potentially pull this off. While this riding has a large military base, which should be good for the Tories on the surface, it is still very much a working class riding and seems to generally resent right wing politics. The Reform Party only won in 1993 when most NDP ridings flipped to the Reform Party as a protest vote and then Keith Martin had enough popularity to win this on his own merit. Had Keith Martin stayed with the Conservatives they probably would win this, but as soon as he left them, that pretty much ended their ability to win here.

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