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Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale

Update/Mise à jour:
1:45 PM 6/26/2004

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
1:45 PM 6/26/2004

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Jen Fisher-Bradley
Randall Garrison
Canadian Action canadienne:
Shawn W. Giles
John Koury
Liberal Party/Parti libéral:
Keith Martin
Green Party/Parti Vert:
Jane Sterk

Population 2001
Number of electors 2000
Nombre d'électeurs

Incumbents/Les députés:
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (100.0%)
Keith Martin

2000 Result/Résultats:
23,554 49.63%
11,335 23.89%
6,398 13.48%
3,820 8.05%
2,349 4.95%

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
(209/209 polls, 77728/77728 voters)
2000 Prediction/Complete Results

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21/06/04 Chuck
Email: cdyson@bclaw.bc.ca
I originally thought the CPC had the edge here but after the CPC candidate went crazy at the all candidates meeting and the subsequent coverage in the Times - Colonist, I think it is between the Libs and the NDP with the Libs winning by a squeaker.
21/06/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
OK, I think Keith Martin is reasonably safe now in this riding. Here are the reasons:
1) John Koury is not coming across well and having trouble with a temper (rumour has it that there was a meeting of the CPC locally to try and figure out what to do with him and how to salvage the campaign)
2) Randall Garrison is being to slavish in his adherance to the NDP line - this is not playing well with people in the area. People like Keith Martin because he puts the riding first and the party second. This morning in the Easingwood show Garrison said he would only vote the party line and anything else would be wrong. He came out against free votes.
3) Keith Martin sounds and looks like he knows what it means to be an MP. He has a sound of measured moderation and compromise needed to be an effective MP.
4) I hear of more and more people that have been helped by Martin and they are very pro Martin no matter what party he is with.
5) Harper backlash is pushing people to look at Keith Martin to keep the Liberal MP numbers up
20/06/04 verity
Email: [hidden]
Razor close, but a potential NDP gain. Garrison their candidate has outperformed all others and got cudos from the local media for it. The conservative candidate has peformed hopelessly. Keith Martin has a chance but its slipping away. The local NDP campaign has been very effective...the conservatives have resorted to telephone campaigning from Toronto, presumably because of their lack of base. I dont think the stats from previous elections are a good basis for predicting many of these BC ridings...its very volatile...I only know that there is a cross section of people in this riding (elderly and young) who are talking about the NDP and Garrison, while having some respect for Martin and concern about the conservative alternative.
20/06/04 NewGreen
Email: [hidden]
The race here should be interesting for Greens to watch. The current GPC leader is desperate to 'mainstream' the party image. He has also been pushing the party away from its social justice positions and more towards a rightist cut taxes and encourage 'green profits'. The independant Jen Fisher-Bradley was rejected by the leader and has chosen to run on a more agressive Green platform.
Not likely a green breakthrough, but it may be a test of the GPC leaders strategy to turn to business for support.
12/06/04 W B Benson
Email: [hidden]
Keith Martin, the incumbent is presently a member of the Liberal Party, although he was formerly a member of the Reform/Alliance, and laterly sat as an independant in parliament. While he was a member of the Reform/Alliance, he was popular, and would have been regarded to the left of that party. He was a good constituancy man, and known for paying attention to local issues. He also gained some promanance in national issues. I don't recall just why he split from the Alliance and became independant. Throughout his incumbancy he was praised from time to time even by those in other political parties. Philosophically, he would seem to 'fit' the Liberal Party more than other parties, in the present circumstance. His local opponents are relative political unknowns, at least to me. The strongest, in my opinion is Randall Garrison the NDP candidate. There are also Conservative and Green Party candadates. The Green Party candadate, Jane Sterk, seems to have the most signs out.
In my opinion, because of his good record locally and nationally, and because of his recognisability, Dr Martin has the best chance of winning.
12/06/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
Now that the election is half over, I'm going back through the ridings and correcting predictions I feel I made incorrectly. I did not plan on commenting on any of my earlier ones that I felt were correct, but I feel here I must.
According to CBC's Environics poll, 34% of people, this election, are voting for the candidate, not the party, or the leader. Keith Martin, like him or not, is the incumbent, and is well knowen. He always was more of a left-wing CA member, and I feel that enough of the "red tories" or in this case "red reformers" will follow him to his new home. Despite the polls today, I think once it become more clear that Paul Martin is going to lose this election, more people will be more comfortable electing Liberal MP's that they like on a personal level. The only reason the Liberals are down, in my opinion, is that people want to send Martin a message. If I'm right, it's Paul who will lose, and Keith who will win.
12/06/04 JT
Email: [hidden]
I'll say that Keith Martin picked a bad time to become a Liberal. Originally, I would have picked this as a CPC hold but with the NDP making inroads in BC I feel they will win this one. THe results will be NDP-36%,
11/06/04 Not Non-Partisan
Email: [hidden]
The voters of BC are clearly going to reelect Conservatives in CA held seats. The polls are pretty clear. Further, Keith Martin (my former classmate at Neil McNeil HS in Toronto) is going to be punished for crossing the floor. Look for him to finish third. Koury is running a solid campaign is a progressively more conservative riding. As for the NDP watch for its strength here diminished by the startling Green presence on the Island.
09/06/04 Tim Trappe
Email: [hidden]
General conversation around the 'coffee pot' at work indicate a significant dissatisfaction with the incumbent (Paul Martin PC->Liberal)changing parties during the last session. Numbers in the audience at candidate meetings tends to show a drop in the liberal attendance and a growth in the PC volumes. Signs on private lawns clearly favour PC (John Koury).
06/06/04 Steven Hurdle
Email: [hidden]
Keith Martin regularly publishes articles in the local paper's TV listings supplement. In the most recent one Keith Martin indicated that his team's internal polling of the riding suggested they were "4% behind the Conservatives", and went on to note that you didn't have to live in his riding to volunteer on his campaign. Perhaps he doth protest too much, but perhaps he's right and his call to arms can be taken at face value. He may do OK in Esquimalt, but the Western Communities portions of the riding have grown a lot since the last election and have become more suburban/middle class and more likely to vote Conservative. Anecdotally, my discussions with people in the Langford and Colwood sections of the riding show deep disenchantment with his switch to the Liberals. I'll be voting for Sterk, but I suspect Koury will be the eventual victor. This riding has gone NDP in the past because of it's anti-establishment tendencies more than its left-leaning tendencies, I believe, and I expect the largest plurality of residents will vote Conservative in this riding.
06/06/04 Aric Houlihan
Email: arichoulihan@rogers.com
In the newspapers a few days ago Liberal candidate Keith Martin admitted that he is running 3rd to the NDP and the Conservatives, so for now I will put this into the NDP column.
02/06/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
If you scrool waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay down, you'll find an earlier posting of ours. We said, "As for the NDP winning here, we just don't see it happening. Time may change that, but as far as we're concerned, it hasn't happened yet." Well, we feel it has happened. BC is a clear three way race. The Conservative vote is centered in the interior of the province and the NDP vote is concentrated, in part, on Vancouver Island. This is leading us to believe more and more that the NDp will be making some serious gains on the island. This is by no means an easy NDP win. Actually the Conservatives have an excellent chance, as well, the Liberals could capitalize on vote splitting between the anti-liberal vote. We're nodding to the NDP now but definitly up in the air.
25/05/04 Glen A.
Email: [hidden]
A wind of change is only blowing harder in this riding since Keith Martin, ever the political opportunist, decided to cross the floor to the Liberal Party. Dr. Martin will not enjoy the fruits of victory as he has in the past and the very capable Randall Garisson of the NDP will win this seat in a very close contest.
Factors include a general distrust and dissatisfaction with the Liberals both federally and provincially as well as Mr. Martin's growing arrogance. Past Reformers will not be pleased that Mr. Martin is now a Liberal thereby losing support. This will be a tight race but my vote is NDP all the way.
24/05/04 CKB
Email: [hidden]
I think the outcome in this riding (and other coastal ridings) will be determined by the candidate's position on oil and gas development off B.C.'s coast. I would like to know what each candidate's position is on this major British Columbia issue before I know who to vote for.
The B.C. government asked the federal government last year to consider lifting its 30-year moratorium on offshore oil exploration after a B.C. study found few science gaps preventing exploration.
01/05/04 Arthur M.
Email: [hidden]
Many people are unhappy that Keith Martin switched parties, but his canvassing seems to show that most people who voted for him last time will vote for him again. He went about his switch in the most fair and ethical way possible. As the NDP says, this is not a genuinely Conservative area. Keith Martin is a great MP and will have no trouble winning under the Liberal banner with Paul Martin as leader. Watch Keith Martin win his seat no problem.
30/04/04 Mike D
The word I hear is this is one of the Top 3 targets for NDP organizers in BC. With BC voters turing on turncoats of every sort, and the word "Liberal" rather unpopular in the Victoria-area right now, this is the NDPs to lose. Randall Garrison is my LOCK of the week.
27/04/04 David.C
Keith Martin is not going to win this riding by the margin he did before. He and his former assistant the Conservative candidate (John Kourey) will split the right leaning vote and the NDP candidate (Randall Garrison) will benefit from this. This will be even more true if he's able to portray the Liberals and Conservatives as being the same. And since Kourey and Martin used to be collegues (Kourey was Martin's assistant) and Martin has called for 'two-tier health care' in the past Garrison may be able to paint them both as being untrustworthy on the issue of health care. I think another aspect to this race will be how the Kourey's personality and animosity towards Martin will be percieved by the local community. He seems a bit grating but if the locals find him in the right because of Martin's floor crossing Martin will be in trouble if Kourey is seen as being juvenile and they like Martin more for his personality than his party politics Martin will benefit. Regardless of all this Esquimalt-Juan-De-Fuca will be a riding to watch and I don't think that it can be called now.
22/04/04 Uvic Student
Email: [hidden]
I've been following this race closely, and unfortunately for the incumbent, I think the NDP is going to win this one handily in a 3-way split. They've got a well-organised campaign and an impressive local candidate. The Conservatives and Liberals are running too very conservative and very controversial candidates. They are likely to divide up the conservative vote in the riding and open up big ground for the NDP in areas like Saanich, Sooke, Langford, Colwood, and Metchosin.
14/04/04 the analyst
Email: [hidden]
If the NDP is smart, they devote a lot of resources to this riding. Martin's Liberal candidacy will make it easy to sell the NDP claim that the Liberals are as conservative as the new Conservatives. The Liberals will steal votes from the CPC and the NDP will steal a bunch from the Liberals. This should be tight but an NDP squeaker if they do things right.
13/04/04 Scott G.
Email: [hidden]
Pundits like us like to attribute a level of drama to politics that it often doesn't deserve, but this race may well live up to the hype. Keith Martin should write for prime time TV.
The Tory vote will be galvanized by Martin's defection - Alliance supporters who got complacent and stayed home in 2000 will be likelier to vote this time. And maybe a few PC voters will go Tory, though if they didn't vote for moderate Alliance MP Martin before, why would they vote for the party he's just abandoned? The Tories will probably lose votes, and in large numbers, of people who support Martin rather than the party. The Tories could've chosen a candidate who would appeal to former PC voters. Instead, they chose Martin's constituency assistant, an Alliance activist.
In addition to Martin supporters, the Liberals are likely to pick up many of the nearly 4000 people who voted PC last time, a substantial boost. But the Liberals will lose voters who can't support someone who was a Reform / Alliance MP for ten years, who is socially liberal but fiscally very conservative.
The NDP will pick up votes from former Liberal voters unimpressed with Martin's politics, as well as a few Green and Red Tory PC votes. This would've happened even without Martin's defection, though not to the same degree. And people who voted for Martin as the outsider, someone not affiliated with the provincial (NDP) or federal (PC, then Liberal) governments, will stay with the Tories or go to the NDP, as they did when Dave Barrett held the riding. I can't imagine how the NDP candidate could possibly equal the sheer (some might say obnoxious) force of Barrett's personality, but that may not matter much.
Martin joined the Liberals at the worst possible time. And he was recruited by the same political operatives whose activities came under public scrutiny after the RCMP raids of the provincial legislative offices of a couple of them. He'll be pilloried by Tories, the NDP, and even some Liberals. He and fellow neoLiberal Ujjal Dosanjh will want to keep in contact with each other for mutual support. I think the respect people have for Martin as an MP and as a person could help him carry the day in a close three-way race, but for now I won't commit to a prediction.
07/04/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
The island is strong Liberal area? When? I think the last time the island had any significant number of Liberals MPs was 1968 - you have to be more less retired to have been able to vote in that election.
Provincially the island went all Liberal, but now the polls are leaning towards a Liberal debacle in 2005.
Keith Martin's personal popularity should gain him a few thousand votes, as will incumbency, but he will lose several thousand for changing parties.
He also has to deal with the 2 tier healthcare thing - this could lose him much of the Liberal support from last time.
Keith Martin might be a good guy door to door, but he is not a great campaigner. He will need to be a great campaigner to win again.
I will would not put money on who will win, but I think NDP or Cons are the two leaders in the race
05/04/04 David
Email: [hidden]
The provincial vote and the federal one are not related in BC, people need to understand this if they want to sound like they know the first thing about politics in BC. Yes the riding was only formed in 88 and was won, once, by Dave Barrett. Since then it has been a Conservative seat by margins of 4000, 8000 and 12000. Prior to the redistribution most of the population that now makes up Esq-JdeF was in Eqs-Saanich, not Cowichin-Malahat and the Islands. The entire history of that riding (53 to 88) was Conservative except for one term where David Anderson was the MP. Before that it was part of the riding Nanaimo, which was PC or Conservative for all but 3 terms since 1911. I think it is safe to say that this a traditionally Conservative area.
02/04/04 DL
Email: [hidden]
I'm not sure what is meant by saying that this riding has been Tory since the 40s. The riding of Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca did not even exist until 1988, before that most of it was in ridings that were NDP strongholds in various incarnations (ie: Nanaimo-Cowichan-the Islands and later Cowichan-Malahat-the Islands). The Esquimalt area was once in a riding called Esquimalt-Saanich that was Tory-Liberal due to the Saanich part, but Esquimalt itself was also quite pro-NDP and was considered opne of the BC NDP's safest seats before the 2001 blow-out.
The first election where this riding existed in its current form as 1988 when Dave Barrett won it for the NDP by 11,000 votes!
01/04/04 Nick Boragina
Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com
this is a Vancouver Island riding. The Liberals have a history of a strong vote (stronger in terms of BC) on the island, and with a well knowen candidate, I think they can win. Keith Martin will be re-elected.
31/03/04 David
Email: [hidden]
Dessertion in a millitary riding - not smart. No Liberal slam dunk here
Weak conservative candidate. No Tory slam dunk here.
Not traditional NDP territory, has been a conservative seat since the 40's with the exception of David Anderson for one term and Dave Barrett for one term. No dipper slam dunk here.
Good 3 way race.
29/03/04 Mike M.
This riding loves Keith. Many are upset with him for switching parties, but he is going about his switch in an honourable way. Keith is a great MP; he personally goes from door to door in his riding and asks his constituents to express their concerns. Keith won a huge majority in the last election. Many of his votes were party votes, but most will follow Keith under Paul Martin.
29/03/04 Dean
Email: deansherratt@rogers.com
Martin's defection is one of the oddest political events in a pretty interesting year. Going to the Lbierals one day, being publically contradicted by the new Liberal PMeader the next and then joining the Liberals just in time for the Adscam fiasco all suggests that Martin will be defeated, most likely badly...
25/03/04 V.D.
Email: bench_breaker@Hotmail.com
John Koury is the Conservative candidate. He was Keith Martin''s campaign manager who was extremely angry, and appeared on the cbc, after Keith defected. He seems like a moderate conservative, seems similar to Keith actually - really have to wait and see how this campaign develops to call this riding.
23/03/04 Bernard
Email: [hidden]
Martin is an incumbent so therefore will benefit from that. He is also not a great political organiser and he has made noises in favour of two-tier healthcare. Jumping ship is always an interesting thing to do and has pros and cons
Much depends on who the Cons and NDP nominate. The NDP has chosen Randall Garrison, I have no idea what he would be like as a politician, but he has some very interesting experience and would go to Ottawa not as a total neophyte.
17/03/04 Objective Observer
Email: objectiveobserver2004@yahoo.ca
Since the 1950's the area has been represented by the PC's with one Liberal interruption. During the 1988 election, former premier Dave Barrett won the seat on behalf of the NDP who, in turn, was defeated by Reform's Keith Martin in 1993. Keith Martin intends to seek the Liberal nomination which will make this an interesting race to watch. This race could even possibly be a three-way race with the NDP.
17/03/04 Bear and Ape
Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com
We feel that Keith Martin may have made a big political mistake by jumping ship now. If long time liberals like David Anderson are in trouble running in Victoria, how can a neo-liberal running in a riding that voted Reform and Canadian Alliace for over a decade be considered safe? As for the NDP winning here, we just don't see it happening. Time may change that, but as far as we're concerned, it hasn't happened yet.
17/03/04 Neal
Email: nealford@sympatico.ca
This riding is one that could go to the Conservatives, in anger over the departure of quirky Keith martin, or the NDP wghich has been strong here before, or perhaps the enigmtic Mr. Martin under the liberal banner, should he win the nomination.... I would say that the scandals in BC and at the Federal level will be a liability to whoever the Liberal candidate will be.
16/03/04 P. Kelly
Email: [hidden]
Voters are not impressed by Keith Martin's stunt. But this is not a genuinely conservative area.
NDP to take this seat. This is not a real ‘conservative’ area and as such, will return to its traditional voting trends and elect an NDP MP by a comfortable margin. This area is where the strong NDP support is concentrated. Look for an unemployed conservative MP.

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