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 | 08 06 02 |
T.V. 207.219.39.131 |
| This is the Liberals' best chance to win a seat in Alberta. Unfortunately, that's still not a very good chance. While the demographics are theoretically amenable to the Liberal party, the vote split with the NDP and the natural Alberta Liberal handicap would make a win here very difficult. They have a very strong candidate here in Claudette Roy, but she may just attract enough votes to ensure that the NDP also don't win this seat. |
 | 08 02 28 |
A.S. 99.233.96.153 |
| I guess it's the formidable say-uncle fact of Harper being PM, but I find the so-far dearth of Edmonton-Strathcona NDP (or Liberal, for that matter) predictions a little odd compared to previous EPP sessions. I mean, be careful, people; despite Harper, this could still be a Joe Comartin 2000 ‘surprise! didn't think we'd do it’ situation, even now... |
 | 08 02 18 |
John 68.148.32.227 |
| Every single election they mark this as too close to call and yet Rahim Jaffer consistently wins by 5,000 votes! As for the comment about Iveson, the vast majority of Ward 5 actually falls into the riding of Edmonton-Leduc. |
 | 07 11 17 |
tcalmack 68.41.127.99 |
| Look for the money to flow into this riding and the anybody but Harper vote to gel into an opportunity to send a real message to the country about the more tolerant side of Alberta. |
 | 07 10 23 |
162.106.6.3 |
| Just an FYI, in the municipal elections here in Edmonton in Oct. the only sitting incumbent who got turfed was Mike Nickel whos ward falls almost entirely in this riding and they elected a 28yo socialist (Iveson) in his place. Nickel wasn't really deemed unpopular or anything, but he had the image as very vocal classic fiscal/social conservative. |
 | 07 09 18 |
Nick J Boragina 74.13.125.185 |
| When you hear Outremont, you don’t think Strathcona, but they two may be linked. The recent victory by Mulcair out in Quebec for the NDP might be just the poll boost the NDP was looking for. As I said in my last prediction, the NDP needs a jump in poll numbers in order to be competitive here, that victory might just be enough. For the time being, I still feel this is a CPC win, but it’s is by far the most vulnerable Tory seat in the province. |
 | 07 09 15 |
24.81.18.126 |
| It would be interesting to see an NDP win in solid-blue Alberta, but I don't think it's going to happen. Rahim Jaffer is a prominent, young MP on the government side and I can't see the electorate trashing him for a fourth-party backbencher (Linda Duncan). |
 | 07 06 10 |
binriso 156.34.233.62 |
| Really i think this is the only riding that will have a margin of victory for the CPC less than 20% in Alberta. Probably not much lower either. NDP have a chance win but it?d be a long shot although i really would never have thought they?d come as close as they did last time so who knows. |
 | 07 04 22 |
G. Kennedy (not that one) 74.13.106.210 |
| This is probably, even moreso than Edmonton Centre (which was really only ever in play on account of Annie), the most vulnerable riding in the province for the Conservatives. Even so, Jaffer still won by about 5,000 votes and if the election is held outside of school, he's in safely. This is not mentioning the fact that the NDP seems to be going downhill. |
 | 07 04 22 |
N. Grant 68.149.181.112 |
Edmonton Strathcona will be the race to watch in Alberta. Linda Duncan placed a very strong second here in 2006 and with more support from the central NDP campaign next time, Jaffer may get a run for his money. Crevat: the Liberals have nominated a strong candidate in Claudette Roy which will inevitably split the centre-left vote in Jaffer's favour and cost Duncan the race. |
 | 07 04 21 |
Ryan N 216.211.53.149 |
| This is Alberta we're talking about! I'd be utterly SHOCKED if ANY riding goes non-Conservative, regardless of this incumbent's past comments/actions. |
 | 07 04 19 |
Calev 208.114.135.81 |
| In the last election Jaffer actually IMPROVED in the number of votes. That combined with the fact that school will most likely out at the time, and with the fact that the NDP are down nationally and the green up, I think that Jaffer will be elected easily. The Liberals are of no threat here. |
 | 07 04 16 |
Steve Smith 129.128.62.229 |
| Every election, the Liberals and the NDP get all excited and assure us that this is the year that they knock off Rahim Jaffer. Every election, they fall well short. I can sort of understand why the Alberta amateur punditocracy would want to turn this riding into a race given how few uncertain results there are in the province, but the real battle is for second place (where I think the NDP will repeat). |
 | 07 04 12 |
Nick J Boragina 74.99.228.118 |
| If the NDP was not down so far in the polls I might feel differently, but with the tories up, and both main opposition parties down, I don’t see any way the NDP can win here. |
 | 07 04 08 |
Joe 68.148.61.68 |
Uh KTR??? Where do you get your evidence that the Liberals have raised more than the NDP? According to elections Canada, the Liberals in this riding spent almost $78,000 last time, only to come third. The Tories spent the same, and the NDP spent about $50K. So the Liberals can't possibly have any advantage they didn't have last time. My NDP friends say this time they are spending the limit in Strathcona. Edmonton Liberals are focusing on Edmonton Centre, and nothing else. This seat is too close to call between Jaffer and Duncan. The one thing everyone agrees on here is that the Liberals are not running a serious campaign. |
 | 07 04 07 |
ktr 68.149.207.18 |
| Last time everyone lent their votes to the NDP from the Liberals, and the Liberals didn?t nominate a candidate until well after the writ was dropped. This time the Liberals have a solid candidate in place and have raised more money that the NDP and have a bunch of NDP supporters onside. Linda is a good candidate but not a great one and she will be dragged down by her party's low poll supports nationally. Claudette Roy will pull it off by a narrow margin. |
 | 07 04 02 |
Calev 208.114.135.81 |
| The only reason the NDP came as close as they did is because of the student vote from the university. As long as the election is held after school is over which it most likely will, it will be conservative easily. |
 | 07 04 01 |
CJH 142.59.195.166 |
| Linda Duncan has been building votes up and there have been a lot of MPs coming in to support her, while the Liberals have been non-existent or just going through the motions during the pre-election period. Another advantage for her is the fact that the environment has been such a huge issue this year - it's her area of strength, and the Conservatives' worst issue. I think Ms. Duncan will unite just enough of the anti-Rahim vote to pull out in front of Jaffer, but it will be right down to the wire. I won't be surprised if this race need recounts at the end. |
 | 07 03 25 |
GM 68.144.68.132 |
| Duncan vs Jaffer one more time. Unless Rahim Jaffer does something stupid (in this next year, not in the past) then I think it's still his race to lose. For the NDP to get 20,000 they'd need a lot of pull from other parties and I don't think it's presently there. Jaffer wins by 5,000 votes. |