Prediction Changed
10:38 AM 28/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Fort McMurray-Athabasca
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Jean, Brian
First Peoples National
Malcolm, John
Reimer, Shawn
Richards, Dylan
Christian Heritage
Strydhorst, Jacob
New Democratic
Voyageur, Mark
Webb, John

Brian Jean

2006 Result:
Brian Jean **
Mel H. Buffalo
Roland Lefort
Ian Hopfe
John Malcolm

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11 dls
Woah Odude... Yes there are a large number of Newfoundlanders in the riding. Mostly in Fort McMurray were voter turnout was about 20% last time. Many simply do not vote. The polls in the rural Southern Part of the riding like Athabasca, Slave Lake and Boyle-Lac La Biche, overwhelmingly vote Conservative and with a much higher turnout. This phenomenon is largely what doomed the candidacies of Mayor Doug Falkner and Adam Germain before him. Germain actually won the Ft. Mac polls in 97, but was decimated in the rural part of the riding by Chatters and ended up losing by about 5,000 votes. And that was when the Liberals were much more popular. I might add that the Liberals only barely finished in front of the NDP and still about 16,000 votes behind.
Because of Fort McMurray growth, when the riding map is re-drawn there might be a chance for a Liberal or NDP victory depending on who is running, but so long as the Southern Rural part of the riding is there... no chance.
08 09 30 odude22
If there was one Alberta riding not to Conservative it would be this one. A Majority of those who live within this riding are Newfoundlanders & Labradorians. Newfoundlanders & Labradorians will traditionally vote on the issues conserning their home Province, Newfoundland and Labrador. All Newfoundlanders & Labradorians love Progressive Conservative Preimer Danny Williams and they will follow his ABC (Anything But Conservative) Campaign. They will then vote for the Liberal's who came second last time in this riding.
08 02 03 A.S.
Alberta being Alberta, this is presently a far more interesting seat economically, demographically, and journalistically than it is electorally. Forewarned, just in case: it *might* bear watching once the next redistribution reduces it to urban Fort McMurray and maybe a swath of northern hinterland.
07 12 10 R.O.
Conservative hold for Brian Jean mp , he first one this riding in 04 and that was when it was brand new and liberals even managed to get mayor of fort mcmurray to run for them.
Even with the growth this area is seeing I don’t see that as a reason for political change. And as some mentioned these ridings are rural and in Alberta which have and will vote for right of centre parties.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
Dare I say the Liberals will be the ones to watch here. With the oil boom this area is seeing unprecedented growth. If not for the housing shortage, this area would have far more people immigrating, not from other countries, but from elsewhere in Canada. While there’s a chance some or most of them vote Conservative already, there’s also a good chance some of them vote Liberal. If the Liberals can pick one of those ‘new Albertans’ as their candidate, Especially a Newfoundlander (Remember, this riding has the largest number of Newfoundlanders outside of Newfoundland) then they can gain thousands and thousands of votes.
Regardless, the Tories will still take this riding with a majority.
07 07 16 binriso
Whoa this one is actually kinda close for Alberta standards. Only a 16000 vote difference between the CPC and Liberals/NDP. The CPC better watch out or they might not get 60% in this riding. They might only finish 40-45% above 2nd place this time.
07 04 12 Ancastarian
A rural Alberta riding - guaranteed slam-dunk for the Conservatives.

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